Congressional Budget Office growth of labor force entirely due to immigration through mid century

The CBO issued in July an outlook for the U.S. population through 2052. Here are some highlights:

Very little annual increase: The population increases from 335 million in 2022 to 369 million in 2052, an average 0.3% increase.

Fewer workers relative to old people: The number of people ages 25 to 54 to the number of people over 65 falls from 2.3 to 1 in 2022 to 1.7 to 1 and 2052.

Below replacement fertility rate:  before the 2008 recession, the rate as 2.02, below 2.1 replacement rate. In the future it will be 1.75.

Virtually flat workforce: the 25 – 54 population will grow from about 130 million to 135 million.

Immigration adds one million people per year. From other sources, the average age of recent immigrants in 30 vs the average age of Americans at 38.  This implies that immigrants may at 500,000 or more new workers per year, as the native born workforce declines.

The CBO report implies that without immigration the 25-54 year old population (prime working years) will decline by about 300,000 a year. With immigration, this population increases by about 200,000 a year.

African emigration

Pew Research in 2018 reported on the surge of migration from Sub-Saharan Africa to Europe and the United States:

Many plan to move to another country in the next five years (this was written in 2018). Among the six countries polled, the share with plans to migrate ranges from Senegal (44%), Ghana (42%) and Nigeria (38%) to Tanzania (8%).

The number of emigrants to anywhere from each of these sub-Saharan countries grew by 50% or more between 2010 and 2017, significantly more than the 17% worldwide average increase for the same period. At the country level, only Syria had a higher rate of growth in its number of people living in other countries.

Europe:

Between 2010 and 2017, 970,000 sub-Saharan persons applied for asylum in Europe.

Nearly three-quarters (72%) of Europe’s sub-Saharan immigrant population was concentrated in just four countries: the UK (1.27 million), France (980,000), Italy (370,000) and Portugal (360,000)


The United States (2010- 2016 data)

In the U.S., those fleeing conflict also make up a portion of the more than 400,000 sub-Saharan migrants who moved to the States between 2010 and 2016. According to data from U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. State Department, 110,000 individuals from sub-Saharan countries were resettled as refugees over this seven-year period. An additional 190,000 were granted lawful permanent residence by virtue of family ties; nearly 110,000 more entered the U.S. through the diversity visa program.

In 2019, there were 1.5 million sub-Saharan refugees in the U.S.  there were 2.1 million sub-Saharan people in the U.S. in 2019 (go here). This means that the Sub-Saharan population rose by over 25% between 2010 and 2019.

Anti immigration Republican rhetoric

From NY Times :

A memo written by Jim Jordan: The memo — which is marked “CONFIDENTIAL — FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY” — repeatedly insinuates that immigrants could be sex offenders, highlighting a handful of arrests at the southwestern border and of Afghan evacuees.

From Five Thirty Eight:

FL governor DeSantis: “Joe Biden has the nerve to tell me to get out of the way on COVID while he lets COVID-infected migrants pour over our southern border by the hundreds of thousands. No elected official is doing more to enable the transmission of COVID in America than Joe Biden with his open borders policies.”

From Axios:

Nevada Republican Senate hopeful Adam Laxalt touts his opposition to protections for Dreamers. Laxalt is seeking the nomination to run against Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D), the nation’s first Latina senator.

In Ohio, GOP Senate candidate J.D. Vance claimed President Biden supported “open borders.” He referenced his own mother’s heroin addiction by saying, “This issue is personal. I nearly lost my mother to the poison coming across this border.”

BUT Voters in the Southwest in recent elections have rejected conservative candidates who have used harsh anti-immigrant language, GOP consultant Mike Madrid told Axios.

Digital Nomad Program in Greece.

Greece Digital Nomad (Type D) Visa was introduced in September 2021.  Length of Stay is 12 months, extendable for a year. Processing time is 19 working days, the visa fee is 75 Euros.

Minimum requirements include: Cannot be a citizen of an EU country. Proof of monthly income no less than €3500 per month. Evidence of employment working for clients outside Greece.  A declaration letter stating that he/she won’t work for a company registered in Greece and justify remote work status with relevant documents and details. Proof of health insurance and evidence of good health. A return flight ticket.

Go here and here (for a more general intro to digital nomads).

Recent opinion poll on immigration

From an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll in December 2021:

About 3 in 10 also worry that more immigration is causing U.S.-born Americans to lose their economic, political and cultural influence. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to fear a loss of influence because of immigration, 36% to 27%. These results are consistent with past polls showing that many Democrats are anxious about immigration. There is a sentiment among many Americans, that “we like immigrants, we just want fewer of them.”

In all, 17% in the poll believe both that native-born Americans are losing influence because of the growing population of immigrants and that a group of people in the country is trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants who agree with their political views. That number rises to 42% among the quarter of Americans most likely to embrace other conspiracy theories.

 

Hispanics are home buying in a big way

Hispanics are becoming an increasingly larger segment of the home buying population. I already posted on this here. Hispanic households are much less likely to be home owners compared to white households (about 48% vs 73%). But Hispanic household formation is higher resulting in the homeownership among Hispanics since 2000 has increased by almost double the rate of the total national homeowner population. The table below shows that 10% of homeowners today are Hispanic, compared to 6% in 2000.



Sources: here, here, here and here.

What if you want to work remotely from in Costa Rica?

A “digital nomad” is some one working remotely who, instead of, say, working in Park City, CA for her company headquartered in Philadelphia, decides to work remotely out of another country. The Migration Policy Institute reports how some countries are incorporating digital nomads into their temporary visa programs. Most countries appear to do this as a nuance to tourist visas.

There are companies (such as here) which are in the business of arranging for temporary work locations outside the U.S.

Examples:

Costa Rica: A short term visa for remote workers or service providers foreign nationals who are employed by a company outside Costa Rica or provide services to entities outside Costa Rica. A one year visa, with option to extend for one additional year. Proof of monthly income of at least $3,000 for an individual or $4,000 for applicant independence.

Greece: A digital nomad visa for foreign nationals who are self-employed or employed by a company outside Greece. Up to one year, with option to renew for up to three years. Proof of monthly income of €3500.

The report concludes: There is a strong case for government to introduce more flexibility into their immigration policies for all categories of remote workers. Policymakers should consider taking a more permissive stance toward occasional remote work by foreign workers unemployment visas as this becomes a more common feature of the labor market

Trump’s family separation policy at the Mexican border

Caitlin Dickerson’s article about the Trump Administration’s family separation policy appeared yesterday in the Atlantic. Here is her Twitter thread of August 7:

I’ve spent the last 18 months investigating how our government reached the point of taking children away from their parents as a way to discourage migration to the United States. Here’s my story about how and why it happened, and who is responsible.

Beyond the answers to these initial questions, I came away with a new understanding of the government processes and procedures that exist to prevent bad policies from being implemented, systems that in this case were dismantled, disempowered, or ignored. It’s easy to blame family separations on a few hawks in a chaotic administration, but they were cosigned by dozens of high-ranking political appointees and bureaucrats. Some actively supported the idea, but many simply declined to push back, figuring that somebody else would.

The implications cannot be overstated. At present time, the parents of 185 separated children still had not been found. Even those who have been reunified remain in many cases profoundly traumatized. Both parents and children are struggling with severe mental illness.

For years we’ve been told that separations were done humanely and without incident. That’s not true. Neris Gonzalez, a Salvadorian and consulate worker, recalls kids being physically pulled back and forth between the parents and agent. She worried some might get hurt.

She says the CBP [Customs and Border Protection] processing center where she worked was virtually locked down while separations were underway. No one outside the government was allowed in to see what was going on. Gonzalez can still hear the children’s ear-piercing screams. She recalls getting ready to leave the facility at the end of the day. The children hugged and climbed on her, begging her not to leave them in the detention center alone.

When I asked government officials how this could have happened many told me they had no idea how badly awry separations would go. But government records show the opposite. Everything that went wrong was documented in advance warnings. Still the administration forged ahead.

This piece is a continuation of a body of work by many reporters who helped to uncover family separations before they were publicly acknowledged, during the many months when government officials were misleading Congress and the public about what they were doing.