Grandparents arrested by ICE

Three recent cases involving persons in Louisiana, Florida and Colorado with average tenure in the U.S. of 50 years.

In the Baton Rouge area a 64-year-old grandmother who arrived in the U.S. in1978 on a student visa was detained by ICE in June while gardening outside her home. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and State Representative Stephanie Hilferty engineered her release.

In Florida a 75-year-old man of Cuban origin, who came to the U.S. in 1966, died on June 26 while in ICE detention. He had been convicted of possession of an illegal substance in 1981 and 1984.

A 68-year-old grandfather who has lived in the U.S. since 1980 was arrested on June 8 while walking his dog in Colorado and deported. He was one of the Muriel Boat Lift refugees.

 

Projected impact of reduced foreign workers on the economy 2025- 2027

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimates that the rapid growth in the number of temporary visa holders and “get-aways” under Biden added to the GDP and that a significant drop of these workers between 2025 and 2027 will lower GDP growth.  With the border crossings shut down and mass deportation, it estimates that GDP growth in 2027 will be 1.49% lower than had Trump-induced border shutdown, self-deportations and mass deportations not occurred.

The authors cite a Brooking’s study of October 2024 which forecasted that a Trump administration’s immigration policies will reduce 2025 GDP by 0.5%. a September 2024 Peterson Institute also forecasted a decline of GDP.

These three forecasts make different assumptions about the size of the workforce reduction. So far, I believe that the workforce has declined by at least one million through June 2025 due to immigration law enforcement. I think it is reasonable to estimate a reduction of at least 3 million workers by 2027 if the pace of enforcment stays where it is now. That comes to about 2% of the workforce, with the losses concentrated in farm, construction hospitality and personal care sectors where the workforce reduction can be 10%-20% or higher. These are generally $15 an hour jobs for which it is hard to believe that legal workers will flock to. So wages would have to increase, pretty quickly.

Foreign workers and the rapid decline in the workforce since April

The workforce since April 2025 declined by over one million, for the first time a decline since the pandemic year of 2020. This is a decline of about 0.5% in the total workforce in two months. This is a far greater rate of change than normally, which for a two-month period has been for decades has been about 0.15% The driver appears most likely is foreign born workers leaving the workforce.

In September 2024, The Wall Street Journal, using a study by the, estimated the net growth of foreign-born persons during the Biden administration at nine million persons.  At about 3 million persons per year, that comes to triple the annual volume of pre-Biden years of roughly one million. Green card migration was at or below past trends.  The increase is almost entirely due to undetected unauthorized entries and to humanitarian programs—asylum, Humanitarian Parole and Temporary protected Status.

The total foreign-born workforce at the end of 2024 was roughly 32 million, or 19% of the entire workforce, an increase since 2015 when the share was about 17%.

Immigrants tend to have higher workforce rates than U.S. born persons. Assuming a 70% rate (compared to total workforce rate of about 62%), and assuming some lag in legal eligibility, perhaps 5 million recently arrived foreign-born entered the workforce in 2021 – 2024.

In the pandemic year of 2020, the workforce declined by about 2.8 million- then rose in 2021 by a modest half million. In 2023 and 2024, the workforce grew by about 6 million, and one million in 2024. In sum, the workforce grew from 2021 through 2024 by about 7.5 million.  It is highly likely that a great majority of this increase was due to foreign-born workers.

From December 2024 through April 2025 – four months – the workforce appears to have surged by over one million – and then declined by over one million.  The most plausible reason for the decline is due to foreign-born workers removing themselves from the workforce.  With the termination of humanitarian parole for key populations and pressure from ICE upon unauthorized persons, how far will the decline extend?

Texas Gov Abbott’s arrest and deportation actions 2017 – June 2025

The rise and fall of border encounters

As Biden took office, U.S. Border Patrol reported a sharp increase in encounters—over 1.7 million in FY 2021 compared to about 400,000 in FY 2020. Encounters continued climbing, reaching 2.9 million in FY 2023.  In December 2023 there were over 250,000 deportation or apprehension events in December alone. Following a June 4, 2024 restriction on asylum, southern border encounters fell. During the first months of the Trump administration,  encounters virtually collapsed to under 10,000 a month (these being encounters of persons crossing between official ports of entry).

Pre- Operation Lone Star actions by Governor Abbott

In 2017, Abbott signed a law allowing local police to check the immigration status of anyone they arrested, similar to Arizona’s earlier SB 1070. Texas’s version went further by threatening sheriffs and police chiefs with fines or removal if they didn’t inquire about immigration. A federal court halted these penalties.

After President Biden took office in 2021 and moved away from Trump-era border policies, migrant crossings into Texas spiked. Abbott accused Washington of abdicating its duty and vowed that Texas would “not be an accomplice” to federal “open border policies. ”

Operation Lone Star

 

In March 2021 Abbot declared a disaster in dozens of border counties thereby empowering him to deploy the National Guard to the border.  This was the official start of Operation Lone Star. “Governor Greg Abbott and the Texas Department of Public Safety today launched Operation Lone Star to combat the smuggling of people and drugs into Texas. The Operation integrates DPS with the Texas National Guard and deploys air, ground, marine, and tactical border security assets to high threat areas to deny Mexican Cartels and other smugglers the ability to move drugs and people into Texas.” (Go here and here.)

The Texas legislature first budgeted funds for the undertaking in House Bill 9 in September, allocating funds that eventually by mid 2022 added up to $5 billion. (Go here.) Between May and November, the number of National Guard troops deployed at the border rose from 500 to 10,000.

The trespass tactic

In 2012 The Supreme Court in Arizona v. United States, 567 U.S. 387 (2012) had firmly assigned immigration enforcement as the exclusive domain of the federal government. Texas sought creative ways to arrest and remove migrants under state law. Operation Lone Star’s architects hit on a trespassing strategy: charging migrants with state misdemeanors for crossing private land. Abbott’s office enlisted ranchers and landowners to sign agreements granting Department of Public Safety (DPS) troopers authority to patrol their properties for border-crossers.  Troopers and National Guard were trained to induce border crossers to step onto private property at which point they were arrested for trespass.

Those taken into state custody (often single adult men) were jailed in state prisons converted into immigration detention centers. To be released, defendants had to post a bond averaging $2,700. Once released from state custody, migrants were handed over to federal immigration agents for deportation or asylum processing. The trespassing charge was not lifts, resulting in many persons having been deported could not get their bond back.

In July 2022 Abbott issued an executive order (GA-41) authorizing Texas state troopers and National Guard units to apprehend migrants and return them to ports of entry at the Mexico border. This unilateral “turn-back” policy was in effect a state-driven expulsion without federal involvement. When President Biden halted further construction of Donald Trump’s border wall, Abbott directed Texas to resume building barriers on its own. in late 2022, Texas state personnel installed concertina wire and shipping containers along the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass and seized control of a riverside public park to use as a hardened staging ground, at one point even barring U.S. Border Patrol agents from entering the area.

A dozen Republican governors dispatched their own state Guard troops or law enforcement officers to assist Texas.

Bussing migrants

The idea surfaced in the summer of 2021, when border city officials in Del Rio pleaded for relief from an overwhelming migrant influx. In September 2021, Del Rio housed 15,000 migrants, mostly Haitians, camped out under the international bridge.

A few weeks earlier, Abbott had convened a Border Security Summit in Del Rio, where nearly a thousand local officials, ranchers and residents aired grievances. There was bipartisan support for busing migrants to other major Texas cities. Abbott staff conceived the idea of sending them out of state, to so-called sanctuary cities. In April 2022 the first state chartered buses left Texas for Washington DC. The passengers had signed voluntary waivers in multiple languages saying they chose their destination. Between 2022 and mid 2024, Texas bussed 120,000 persons, to Washington, D.C., New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver and Los Angeles.

(Governor de Santis flew some migrants to Martha’ Vinyard, a stunt that Abbott distanced himself from.)

SB 4

In late 2023, the Texas Legislature passed Senate Bill 4 to create a state-level immigration offense. SB 4 made it a Class B misdemeanor on first offense to illegally enter the state from Mexico between ports of entry. Abbott signed SB 4 in December 2023 In February 2024, a federal district judge enjoined SB 4 before it could take effect. As of mid-2025, SB 4 remains tied up in court.

https://immpolicytracking.org/policies/dhs-makes-finding-of-mass-influx-of-aliens-at-southern-border-requests-state-and-local-assistance-nationwide/

Deputizing state officials

On January 31, 2025, the Trump administration signed an memorandum of understanding with Texas invoking a “mass-influx provision” of the Immigration and Nationality Act. This allowed Texas to deputize state law enforcement officers to act with the powers of immigration agents during an immigration emergency. Texas National Guard troops and state police were granted authority to apprehend and deport migrants directly.

“The Guard authority to act as immigration officers in a State Active Duty status under Title 8. Under this agreement, Texas officials are authorized…to perform specified immigration functions that include investigating immigration violations, arresting individuals for immigration violations, and transporting noncitizens for detention and removal. DHS waived all immigration-training requirements for Guard personnel exercising these authorities. CBP retains the authority to supervise and direct Guard activities.”

Federal reimbursement

The One Big Beautiful Bill has a $12 billion provision designed to be paid to Texas.

Credit: Texas Roundup, by Jonathan Blitzer, New Yorker, March 17 2025

Many Hispanics feel affected by deportation effort

From an April 11 – 19 poll of 1,002 Hispanic voters by UnidosUS, the respondents listed economic issues as most important to them. However, on the administration’s campaign of mass deportation, a sizable minority view themselves as directly impacted. Note that the poll was of voters and did not include persons on a visa or unauthorized persons. Even many citizens who vote are affected. 

Thinking of recent immigration policies and actions, do any of the following apply to you or your community?

Many people fear immigration authorities will arrest them even if they’re U.S. citizens or have legal status – 43

Employers have lost workers because people fear they’ll be arrested if they go to work – 35

Children are missing classes because their parents fear being arrested at their child’s school – 32

People aren’t going out to eat or shop because they’re afraid of immigration enforcement – 30

People are more reluctant to report crimes or interact with the police – 27

 

Onshoring textile and clothing production will require more foreign-born workers

The share of clothes sold in the U.S. that is imported rose from about 20% in 1990 to 60% today.  It is one of the sectors of most dependent on imports. Close to half of textile and clothing imports are from China. The workforce in textiles declined from 700,000 in 1990 to about 200,000 today. (Go here.) Employment at the 200,000 level has been stable since the early 2010s. today there are about 270,000 in the labor force.

The Trump tariffs are designed to bring back production to the U.S.  Where will the workers come from?

Nationwide, about one third of textile and clothing production workers are foreign born. On third of these workers are unauthorized. (Go here.) Half or more of industry workers in New York City and in California are foreign born, many of them unauthorized. (Go here.) The domestic apparel industry is heavily concentrated in California, where foreign-born workers are the majority of the industry workforce.  It is very likely that increasing the production of clothes in the U.S. will depend on the availability of more foreign-born workers.

Polls show relatively high popular support for Trump immigration measures

On no issue does the American public give the Administration more support than slightly over 50%. But polls by the Wall Street Journal and Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research both show Americans support the Trump Administration’s immigration policies more than they do its economic policies.  This suggests to me that it will continue to push immigration into the front pages. The two polls were conducted before the tariff policy was announced.

Rubio memo on review of visa applicants

Ken Klippenstein found a memorandum dated March 25 titled “Enhanced Screening and Social Media Vetting for Visa Applicants.” The memo cites a few visa categories but one could assume it effectively applies to all categories. It gives guidance to consular officers on vetting visa applicants. The officers are to search for any espousal of terrorist activity or a terrorist organization.  The search is to go much further than that – verbatim from the memorandum:

“Evidence that an applicant advocates for terrorist activity, or otherwise demonstrates a degree of public approval or public advocacy for terrorist activity or a terrorist organization, may be indicative of ineligibility under INA 212(a)(3)(B). This may be evident in conduct that bears a hostile attitude toward U.S. citizens or U.S. culture (including government, institutions, or founding principles). Or it may be evident in advocacy or sympathy for foreign terrorist organizations. All of these matters may open lines of inquiry regarding the applicant’s credibility and purpose of travel. Consular officers should inquire into the nature and activities of those organizations.”

Klippenstein comments: “Specific reference is made to students seeking to participate “in pro-Hamas events,” which is how the Trump administration has characterized student protests against the war in Gaza.”

March 15 deportations and court order: a time line

The deportations took place on Saturday March 15, immediately after President Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act. The White House statement (here) is not time stamped, but must have taken place between the morning and boarding of the first plane, As now early March 24, the government has not substantively responded to Judge James Boasberg’s demand for an accounting of the flights in the context of his order to halt them, which per the time line below was issued before the third of three flights took off. Attorney General Bondi has severely criticized Boasberh in news interviews.

According to the BBC, all Eastern Daylight Time:

5:25 PM A first flight believed to be carrying deportees leaves Texas, according to data from tracking site Flightradar24. Takeoff happens while a hearing held by Judge Boasberg is paused. Earlier that afternoon, the White House said Trump was invoking the Alien Enemies Act

5:44 PM A second flight believed to be carrying deportees leaves Texas, according to Flightradar24

6:05 PM Boasberg’s hearing resumes and the government declines to say if deportations are ongoing, according to ABC News

6:46 PM: Boasberg orders the government to turn around the two planes if they are carrying non-citizens, according to ABC

7:26 PM: Boasberg issues his written order for a temporary restraining order, according to ABC

7:36 PM: A third flight believed to be carrying deportees leaves Texas, according to Flightradar24

 

ICE arrests and deportations

ICE, which manages arrests and detention within the U.S. vs the areas at and near the borders, has been detaining about 750 persons a week. This is not much different than in prior administrations.  Many of these arrests likely end in deportation. Only 1% of all deportations involve a person who has a criminal record in the U.S. (Go here.)