A weblog about the business of immigrant work: employment, compensation, legal protections, education, mobility, and public policy.
According to Politico, Donald Trump spoke on December 16 in New Hampshire about immigration:
“They’re poisoning the blood of our country,” the former president said. “They’ve poisoned mental institutions and prisons all over the world. Not just in South America, not just the three or four countries that we think about, but all over the world they’re coming into our country from Africa, from Asia.”
It is Thursday December 14. Senate Republicans and the White House are reportedly negotiating a border/amnesty deal aiming to complete before the holiday break. The leading newspapers don’t mention House Republican involvement. It is not clear to me if House Republicans want a deal.
The crush at the border is due to one thing: the easy chance for migrants to game the amnesty system. I understand that immigration courts approve only about 30% of appeals. Even were the acceptance rate 10%, people will stay crowd at the border as they expect to get permission to stay in the U.S. for years before their case comes up. To stay, to work (legally or illegally) for several years, with the prospect of abandoning your case and joining the unauthorized workforce; perhaps get lucky by a immigration reform bill granting permanent residency – for many these are attractive scenarios relative to their other options. This is of course not to deny there are many valid amnesty cases – the courts show that to be the case.
For the Republicans, passage of a law which severely cuts down on this gaming, for instance by requiring applicants to file in a third country, and to deny application rights to those who enter outside of the formal ports of entry – if such a law passed, traffic to the border will drop instantly and the immediate border crisis will evaporate. I do not believe that Congressional Republicans want this to happen – they do not want draconian measures to pass.
There’s a Kirk Douglas film called Ace in the Hole, in which a washed up newspaper reporter prolongs another person’s life threatening crisis, and sabotages rescue efforts, because to end the crisis puts an end to his ploy. The amnesty crisis in the Republican’s ace in the hole.
The most pronounced association between climate change and migration involves the Sahel region of Africa (go here.) Now there is some evidence from Central America.
It has to do with drier weather adversely affecting those areas of Central America with a traditional dependence on agriculture for household income. The regions most affected by drier climate and out migration were southeastern and eastern Honduras, and most of El Salvador. There is not a complete and tight association between dryness and migration; however, the match overall is pretty good.
The Economist wrote: Using border-apprehension data from 2012 to 2018, researchers from the universities of Texas and Utah show that more people journey north when there is drier-than-usual weather during a growing season
Researchers found data on temperature and rainfall for Central American countries. By mapping the two they saw how drier-than-normal weather during growing seasons predicted emigration. Areas suffering from a particularly arid growing season saw 1.7 times more people travel to the United States than those with typical weather.
The impact of climate change on livelihoods is particularly acute in the Northern Triangle because large shares of the population are dependent on farming. According to data from the ILO, , 37% of Hondurans, 32% of Guatemalans and 30% of Salvadoreans of working age laboured in agriculture in 2012. Many other jobs also depend on the sector. Although by 2019 the share of people working in agriculture had fallen in all three countries, this drop is unlikely to cause migration to fall, since extreme weather events are becoming more common.
Biden’s appeal to non-write voters, according to the Nate Cohn of NY Times, appears to be about 63-29 today. The Democratic candidate received around 70-75% of the non-white vote in 2000, around 80% in 2012, and 74-75% in 2016.
Here: Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.
Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And Overall, nonwhite respondents who divulged their vote in the last election reported backing Mr. Biden by a margin of 70 percent to 24 percent, a figure neatly in line with postelection studies. While women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.
Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
Here: Mr. Biden’s weakness among nonwhite voters is broad, spanning virtually every demographic category and racial group, including a 72-11 lead among Black voters and a 47-35 lead among Hispanic registrants. The sample of Asian voters is not large enough to report, though nonwhite voters who aren’t Black or Hispanic — whether Asian, Native American, multiracial or something else — back Mr. Biden by just 40-39. In all three cases, Mr. Biden’s tallies are well beneath his standing in the last election.
Young people of color, who make up a disproportionate share of nonvoters, are an important part of Mr. Biden’s challenge. He holds a 48-29 lead among nonwhite registered voters under age 45, compared with a 58-28 lead among those over 45.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the fertility rate of Hong Kong today is 0.8. “The number of children being born in Hong Kong each year has been in steady decline since 2014, but the decrease quickened to an almost 40% drop between 2019 and 2022, falling from 52,900 to 32,500 births last year, according to government data.
The proportion of women in Hong Kong who don’t have children more than doubled to 43% in 2022 from five years ago, according to a survey by The Family Planning Association of Hong Kong. Around 40% of young women who didn’t want children said the city isn’t suitable for child development, up from 16% in 2011.”
These raids were begun under the George W Bush administration, terminated under Obama, and (one instance) brought back under Trump. Trump is planning mass arrests if he becomes president in 2025.
April, 2006. Several factories of IFCO, a manufacturer of crates and pallet facilities, we raided with arrests of about 1,100 workers and some management staff.
December 2006: Swift meat processing plants are raided. The raids took place at plants in Greeley, Colorado; Grand Island, Nebraska; Cactus, Texas; Hyrum, Utah; Marshalltown, Iowa; and Worthington, Minnesota.1,300 ICE agents were involved in the raids, resulting in the arrests of nearly 1,300 undocumented immigrant workers.
March, 2007. New Bedford MA clothing factory owned by Michael Bianco Inc raided resulting in about 350 arrests. Here is Senator Ted Kennedy’s statement about the raid.
May, 2008 Raid on Agriprocessors meat processing plant in Postville IA results in arrest of 1,000 workers.
October 2008, Greenville, SC meat processing plant of House of Raeford raided with arrest of about 350 workers,
July 2009 ICE enforcement action against American Apparel, with over 1,000 unauthorized workers, shows shift in enforcement from mass raids to financial penalties. Here abd here are postings about the shift in focus.
April, 2018. Bean Station, TN factory of Southeastern Provision, a family run meat processing plant, raided resulting in the arrest of about 100 workers.
Between 2010 and 2020, the working age population (15-64) in Germany declined by 2% or one million, and increased in the U.S. by 0.5 % or nine million. Canada’s working age population rose by 4% or 800,000. Canada likely had the highest rate of working age population increase among all advanced economies, thanks to its aggressive immigration policy that results in an immigration flow three times that of the U.S. on a comparable population basis.
This population increased in China by 6% or 75 million between 2010 and 2020. In China the working age population likely hit its peak in about 2015, and the 2030 figure is expected to be 880 million, a 110 million or 11% decline.
Immigration to keep up the size of the workforce, and avoid decline, is essential in most or all advanced countries.
Estimates suggest between 12-14 million Europeans were displaced in the aftermath of WWII, either through forced migrations, deportations or population transfers based on ethnic criteria. The largest numbers came from eastern Germany, Poland and the Baltic states. This upheaval deeply influenced the movement towards refugee protections and enactment of the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, also known as the 1951 Refugee Convention or the Geneva Convention, of July 28, 1951.
The list below contains the major forced mass migrations since that upheaval, though it could be said that the creation of the state of Isreal mentioned below was a part of that WW2 – caused upheaval. Note how often forced mass migrations are part of the creation or destruction of a country. Are the countries that were instrumental in creating or dismembering a county responsible for the consequences of human displacement? Do these case studies show a way out of the current Palistinian siutation?
(Here is a brief summary of mass migrations due to American-involved wars since the 1960s.)
Partition of India and Pakistan (1947): The division of British India into the two independent states of India and Pakistan, largely along religious lines, led to the displacement of up to 15 million Hindus, Sikhs, and Muslims due to sectarian violence and fear of persecution. Today, there are about one million Hindus living in Pakistan. There are about 200 million Muslims living in India, the majority of whom live in Jammu and Kashmir, some in disputed territory. In 2019, India passed the Citizenship Amendment Act = which fast-tracks citizenship for persecuted minorities from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, but excludes Muslims. The Modi government has made moves to question the legal status of many Muslims in Assam and West Bengal, threatening to deport them to Bangladesh.
Arab-Israeli War (1948): Most of the current number of some 5 million Palestinian refugees originated from areas within modern-day Israel. When Israel declared independence on May 14, 1948, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians either fled or were expelled. Jordan occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem, while Egypt took control of the Gaza Strip – accounting for the remaining 23% of land. Many Palestinian refugees relocated to the West Bank, Gaza Strip and neighboring countries like Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. Large refugee camps like Ain el-Hilweh in Lebanon and Jabalia in Gaza, have taken on a permanent character over the decades.
The original 1948 refugee population was estimated at 700,000-750,000. The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) reported over 5 million registered Palestinian refugees in its areas of operation in 2016. Jordan has the largest Palestinian refugee population at over 2 million, followed by Gaza, the West Bank and Syria. Descendants of the original 1948 refugees retain the refugee status. Host countries have granted Palestinian varying residency and citizenship rights. Refugees in Gaza, West Bank and Syria continue to have permanent refugee status with fewer citizenship rights. Their status remains unresolved pending final Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
Korean War Refugees (1950-1953): The Korean War caused the displacement of over 5 million people. The division of Korea into North and South led to massive movements of civilians fleeing from the conflict and from communist rule in the North. Only about 20,000 persons have been involved in reunification efforts since.
Vietnamese Boat People (1970s-1980s): After the fall of Saigon in 1975 and the reunification of Vietnam under communist control, political repression, economic sanctions, and conflicts with neighboring China and Cambodia led to the exodus of over 1 million Vietnamese by sea. The Vietnamese American population was about 2 million in 2019, making them the largest Southeast Asian American group. This represents a growth of about 40% since 2000. The Hmong American population was about 326,000 in 2019. The Cambodian American population was about 329,000 in 2019.
Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan (1979-1989): This invasion and the subsequent Afghan Civil War caused over 6 million Afghans to flee, primarily to Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan is home to over 4 million Afghan migrants and refugees, about 1.7 million of whom are undocumented, according to Islamabad. Afghans make up the largest portion of migrants – many came after the Taliban retook Afghanistan in 2021, but a large number have been present since the 1979 Soviet invasion. Pakistan is now expelling all undocumented Afghans. Iran hosts over 1.1 million Afghans of varying status including, 360,000 Afghans with Iranian resident permits, 267,000 family passport holders and 500,000 undocumented Afghans. (The American withdrawal in 2021 precipitated some 100,000 being admitted into the U.S.)
Iran-Iraq War and Kurdish Displacements (1980s): In 1990, there were around 3.5-4 million Kurds living in Iraq, making up around 19-20% of Iraq’s total population The Kurdish population was concentrated in the northern provinces of Erbil, Duhok and Sulaymaniyah, though many also lived in Baghdad and other mixed areas. After the Gulf War in 1991, it is estimated that around 1.5 million Iraqi Kurds fled or were displaced to the Kurdish autonomous region, established that year. Iraq’s Kurds were able to establish an autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in 3 provinces of northern Iraq under Western protection. This was recognized in Iraq’s 2005 constitution. The KRG has its own parliament, military and jurisdiction over the Kurdistan Region.
Breakup of Yugoslavia (1991-1999): The violent disintegration of Yugoslavia led to the displacement of over 4 million people throughout the 1990s, due to a series of conflicts in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. Bosnia and Herzegovina was recognized as an independent state in 1992 following a referendum. Its constitution, drafted in 1995 as part of the Dayton Peace Accords, created a complex political structure organized into two largely autonomous entities – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008 and was recognized by western powers that year.
Rwandan Genocide (1994): The targeted genocide against Tutsis by the Hutu majority government led to approximately 2 million people fleeing Rwanda, predominantly to the Democratic Republic of Congo. The disruption extends through today with the presence in the DRC of the M13 army, supported it is alleged by Rwanda. Eastern provinces of the DRC, such as North Kivu, are the source of many CRC refugees in the United States.
Sudanese Civil Wars (1983-2005): Over the course of the conflict between the Muslim government in the north and the Christian and animist south, around 5 million people were displaced with many fleeing to Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda.
South Sudan (2013-present): About 2.2 million persons have left this country, which was founded in 2011.
Syrian Civil War (2011-present): One of the largest refugee crises of the 21st century, this conflict has led to over 6.6 million refugees fleeing Syria, with millions more displaced internally. Destinations include Turkey, over 3.6 million; Lebanon, around 1 million; Jordan; Jordan, around 660,000; and Germany, over 800,000. Sweden, heretofore extremely homogenous, has received 150,000.
Venezuela (2014-present): Due to a major economic and political crisis, according to UN estimates, over 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country since 2014, and most sense the late 2010s. The majority of Venezuelan emigrants have gone to nearby countries in South America and the Caribbean, with Colombia hosting the most – estimated at over 1.7 million as of 2019. The Venezuelan population in the U.S, about 300,000 pre-pandemic, has grown by upwards of 500,000 since, in part approved by special designations by the Biden Administration. These actions by BIden result in the largest increase in authorized residency in the United States since Obama, by Executive Order, in 2012 created DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals).
Note: this list can be expanded to include other displacements such as affecting the Tamil population, Tibet, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Eritrea. Suggestions are welcome: pfr@rousmaniere.com
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The Biden Administration has given temporary legal status to hundreds of thousands of persons through the use of the Temporary Protective Status program and through Humanitarian Parole. In this posting I address TPS. In 2019 there were about 400,000 persons covered by TPS. After action the Biden Administration in September, over a million will be covered. They will account for about 650,000 workers.
The Trump Administration attempted to terminate some authorizations but were frustrated by the courts. No immigration program since the passage of the 1986 has accelerated legal status in the U.S. more than TPS. It is, I believe, reasonable for a TPS benefiary to think that they have a very good chance of becoming a legal permanent resident.
(The best in depth reviews of TPS are here and here.)
Congress enacted the Temporary Protective Status program as part of the immigration act of 1990 to establish a uniform process and standard for granting temporary humanitarian protection in the United States, for non-citizens already in this country whose home countries are in crisis. This provision was in part a response to a 1947 U.N. Protocol on refugees.
TPS designation can be for an initial period of anywhere from 16 to 18 months and extended indefinitely for periods for up to 18 months. The program is designed for people who cannot return safely due to their home countries due to ongoing armed conflict, environmental the disaster, or other extraordinary and temporary conditions. While the designation formally is temporary, the designation can lead to a more permanent status.
Nearly 93 percent of current TPS holders are from Latin American countries, particularly El Salvador, Haiti, and Venezuela, where a worsening humanitarian crisis has caused more than seven million people to flee the country. Hundreds of thousands of Salvadorans have been allowed to stay in the United States since devastating earthquakes rocked El Salvador in 2001. Haiti was first assigned TPS after a massive earthquake destroyed much of the country in 2010, and it received the designation again in 2021 and 2022 amid continued violence and a prolonged political crisis. Honduras and Nicaragua were given TPS after a hurricane battered the region in 1998. Countries that have previously received TPS include Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kuwait, Liberia, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone. (Go here).
In March 2019, some 400,000 citizens from 10 countries were covered by TPS, per the Congressional Research Service. As of March 2023, about 610,000 citizens of 16 countries have been granted TPS. In September 2023 the Biden Administration allowed 472,000 Venezuelans to be covered, adding to the some 250,000 Venezuelans already covered by TPS. Some arrived into the U.S. illegally, and they are prevented from moving to a more permanent status. Many have been here for years, integrating into the economy and raising children.
From Pew Resarch:
In 2020, 11% of all married couples in the U.S. were interracial or interethnic, according to Pew Research Center analysis. This is up from 3% in 1967 when the Supreme Court struck down bans on interracial marriage.
The most common interracial marriage pairing is one Hispanic and one white spouse at 42%. Census data collection changes between 2010 and 2020resulted in a tripling of persons who self-described a multi-racial, mainly involving this demographic.
Next is one white and one Asian spouse at 15%, then one white and one black spouse at 12%.
Interracial couples have increased across all education levels, but are most prevalent among couples where both partners have at least a bachelor’s degree.
Rates of interracial marriage vary widely by region. In Western states like Hawaii and Nevada, about 1 in 3 married couples are interracial. In Southern states, the rate is around 1 in 10.
About 20% of cohabiting couples were interracial in 2012. The interracial cohabitation rate has risen faster than the interracial marriage rate.
By 2050, Pew projects that 1 in 5 U.S. newlyweds will have a spouse of a different race or ethnicity. This indicates that interracial relationships will likely continue growing.