Part 1: Trump’s immigration policy is part of a wholesale abandonment of an Enlightenment-inspired commitment to global human rights and human welfare.

The Trump administration is abandoning our commitment to help advance human capabilities throughout the world. Call this commitment a genuine gesture or a form of imperialism, but it has been part of American political culture and of both parties since World War II.

The globe is interconnected; the actions of countries can threaten the life chances of persons anywhere, such as driving persons to flee or creating mass expulsions. What happens in Ukraine or the Democratic Republic of Congo eventually affects us. But the case for our paying attention to persons far from our borders rests more on Western Enlightenment ideology, namely the belief that all persons have a right to sustenance, protection of life, and advocacy for human capabilities.

A global compact for recognizing persons fleeing their country was created by the United Nations. The main instrument is a 1951 convention on refugee rights. Key provisions of the convention were expressly incorporated into American law by the Refugee Act of 1980.

Putting this history into broader context starts with post-WWII mass expulsions, mostly Germans living in Eastern Europe. Perhaps it is no coincidence that arising out of post-war Europe, especially Eastern Europe, were human rights concepts that led to international agreements on genocide (1948), human rights (1948), and later in the Helsinki Accords of 1975.

Our domestic policies matched these agreements: the creation of the Agency for International Development and the Peace Corps in 1961; Civil Rights legislation; and the Immigration and Nationality Act (or Hart-Celler Act) of 1965. These actions served as an implicit declaration of commitment by the United States to global standards of human rights and welfare.

TRAC (Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse) has analyzed ICE arrest and removal trends under the Trump administration compared to the Biden administration.  There is no evidence to support claims of higher arrests and removals.

Arrests: ICE arrests have not significantly increased under Trump compared to Biden’s administration. In February 2025, the average daily ICE arrests (724) were actually 4.7% lower than the average during Biden’s FY 2024 (759).

Detentions: The number of detained individuals increased slightly from 39,703 on January 12, 2025 (end of Biden’s term) to 41,169 on February 9, 2025 (under Trump), a 3.7% increase.

Removals (Deportations): ICE removals have decreased by 6.5% under Trump compared to Biden’s administration. During FY 2024 ICE deported an average of 742 individuals per day. For the period of January 26 to February 8, 2025 (under Trump), deportations dropped to 693 per day.

 

The American Immigration Council says that the FY 2025 budget reconciliation bill before the Senate deal will reportedly include at least $175 billion for immigration and border enforcement. It estimates that over the past 20 years, total annual spending for CPB and ICE had averaged $20 billion.

In October 2024 the Council estimated that mass deportation of approximately 13 million undocumented immigrants would cost at least $315 billion for a one-time operation, or $967.9 billion over a decade for a sustained effort deporting one million people annually.

The first year budget of the Trump Administration appears consistent with the Council’s forecast given it is a ramp-up year. The major cost increases per the Council will be massive expansion of detention facilities (DHS wants to increase capacity from 40,000 to 100,000) immigration courts (the great majority of affected persons will have right to court appeal)  and enforcement personnel (10s of thousands of new hires). 

 

There are six congressional districts with a majority Hispanic population and a Republican congressional representative. Here they are, with the percentage of Hispanic population and recent comments well as some past comments about immigration.

On January 29, the three Florida representatives listed below (Diaz-Balart, Giménez and Salazar) released a joint statement that they stood in solidarity with the Venezuelan community, emphasizing the need for humane treatment and legal protections for those fleeing the Maduro regime.

David Valadao (CA-21) Fresno- San Joaquin Valley. 51% Hispanic. Valadao has warned that increased deportations could lead to higher costs for goods, emphasizing the economic impact on the Central Valley’s agricultural sector.  In 2018, he stated: “It is important to create a fair process to give immigrants the opportunity to obtain earned citizenship, thus avoiding the creation of a second-class society.” In 2014, Valadao voted against a bill that would have dismantled the DACA program.

Mario Díaz-Balart (FL-25) Miami-Dade County, 72%. He has represented this reliably Republican district since 2003. He and Gimenez contacted DHS Secretary Kristi Noem regarding the “urgent situation” of Venezuelans losing TPS. They argued that social and political conditions in Venezuela have not significantly improved, implying concern about potential deportations. He wrote about Trump’s policy, “You can’t deport somebody back to a country where you know they’re going to potentially suffer real persecution.” In 2014, he was “eagerly seeking a deal” on undocumented immigrants that could gain bipartisan support.

Carlos Gimenez (FL-26). Miami-Dade County. 67%. As Mayor of Miami-Dade County in 2017, Giménez ordered county jails to comply with federal immigration detention requests. Regarding the termination of TPS for Venezuelans, he wrote Trump, “”I urge you to make a compassionate and individually tailored solution to those who contribute to our country and respect the rule of law.”

Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27) Miami-Dade County. 69%. District has recently swung to the right. She has been the most vocal of the six express concern about Trump’s policy. She wrote to DHS, “Although President Biden originally created this new program [humanitarian parole for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua Venezuela] and on dubious legal grounds and brought individuals here without a plan for their future, they were still enrolled under programs offered to them. Therefore, I believe they should have the ability to see their applications out to rectify their legal status.” Salazar, along with other Florida lawmakers, expressed “profound disgust” after reports that a former high-ranking Cuban Communist Party leader was allowed to enter the U.S. through a visa parole program.

Monica De La Cruz (TX-15) McAllen. 83%. She said, “President Trump is focused on taking out of our country illegal immigrations who have committed crimes, crimes such as those that were committed against Laken Riley.”. She acknowledged that while the primary targets are those with criminal records, it’s possible that other undocumented immigrants might also be affected by the policy. She has referred to the Biden administration border policy as a “joke.”

Tony Gonzales (TX-23).San Antonio. 64%. This district was redrawn in 2021 to make it a safe Republican district Regarding mass deportation he recently said, “If the message is, ‘We’re here to deport your abuelita,’ that’s not going to work well. It has to be one of holding these hardened criminals accountable.” And, “If we’re going after the guy that’s picking tomatoes or the nurse at the local hospital and we’re not going after the convicted criminal, then our government has failed us.”

 

 

The Trump Administration’s slashing of indirect costs for federal grants for university-based research to a maximum of 15% may especially threaten STEM research and academic departments.  It may drive many foreign-born research and faculty in STEM to go to another country.

About 45% of STEM Masters and 46% of STEM PhDs awarded by US institutions go to international students on temporary visas. 29% of full-time science and engineering faculty in U.S. universities are foreign-born. 49% of U.S.-trained postdocs were born overseas.

Steve Hsu (@hsu_steve) writes on X: The [indirect cost] cuts will harm overall university budgets, but the main harm will be to very expensive STEM activities on campus, which require large IC charges to fund.

Building new labs, renovating old labs, hiring staff to deal with real regulatory and compliance requirements, etc. all require additional funds from ICs. Existing grants do not cover any of these costs which are very large and very real….Overall this is a huge win for China because the appeal of working as a scientist at a US university is significantly diminished as the available resources decrease.

Here is an article saying that direct costs are immune from Executive Branch interference.

President Trump has issued an Executive Order classifying South African Afrikaners as a specifically designated population for refugee status. This might be the first time an advanced western country provides formal aid to a group of white persons intimately associated with writing, not long ago, racist laws of oppression against non-white persons.

The news of the day is action by the Trump Administration to crush any resistance of countries (mainly Latin American) to flights from the U.S. carrying deported persons back to their country of origin. A blow up with Colombia lasted less than 24 hours.

However, a development with much more serious implications is the plan by the administration to expand “expedited removal.”

Expedited removal is located in Section 235(b)(1) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. This law authorizes immigration officers to summarily remove certain noncitizens without further hearing or review, thus by-passing immigration courts. Generally speaking, expedited removal applies to persons who have been in the United States without authorization for up to two years.   Thus, any long-term authorized resident would not be subjected to expedited removal.

The Trump administration has filed a proposed change to expedited removal by reversing a 2022 policy by the Biden  administration to limited use of expedited removal to persons within 100 miles of the border. The new rule will extend the power throughout the U.S.

The NY Times reported that on January 25 Dept of Homeland Security Secretary Homans issued a memo which extends expedited removal to all so-called CHNV humanitarian visa holders – those who have been admitted up to 30,000 a month since this program was created by Biden to divert persons from the Mexican border. The CBP One app was used for many of these persons as well as by others. The DHS is basically saying that the CHNV program and the CBP App were illegal and thus anyone admitted through one or both of these programs is not authorized. This entire population is about 1.2 million.

This initiative is consistent with my expectation that Trump will go after the large numbers of persons admitted under Biden by temporary visa programs.

 

 

 

 

 

Millions of children already born will have their citizenship revoked. The number of living persons born in past decades in circumstances which Trump’s EO would bar citizenship runs into the millions. Many have had their own children, whose citizenship status would be thrown into doubt. The number of current children (uner 180 affected likely runs into the milllions.