Category: Politics

Six common features of the 1920s and the 2010s on immigration sentiment

The 1920s can help us understand  immigration’s hold on public opinion and politics during the 2010s.

One: Disruption. Both periods were burdened with war’s aftermath. And the speed of corporate innovation in the consumer economy alarmed and today alarms many.

Two: New immigrants. Both periods experienced huge surges in immigration from new sources, which contributed to disruptions and also served as a simplified explanation for troubles.

Foreign immigration had surged since the 1880s, the peak year being 1907, when 1.3 million people entered legally. (That’s equivalent to over 4 million new immigrants a year now.) Germans had been the dominant source; Eastern and Southern Europeans and Jews took over. Since the 1980s, non-Europeans have dominated immigration.

Three: Black-white relations were a factor. Then, migration of a million southern blacks to Harlem added to anxiety that white dominance was under siege. Now, conservatives demonize Black Lives Matter.

Four: Purity, pollution and order. Then, white racial purity movements flourished. Now, Donald Trump launched his campaign by castigating the morals of Mexican immigrants. He encourages conspiracy thinking.

Five: Intellectuals’ ambivalence, shown by avoidance. Then, as also now, liberal media often avoided the issue of cultural cohesion, focusing on economic inequality and class. The liberal media today also overlooks today economic disruption of immigration.

But some intellectuals added to support for curtailing immigration. In 1922 John Dewey said, “The simple fact of the case is that at present the world is not sufficiently civilized to permit close contacts of people with widely different cultures without the deplorable consequences.” He said that tighter immigration would allow for “rest and recuperation.” Today, some intellectuals are calling for lower immigration to preserve cultural cohesion, but none of Dewey’s stature.

Six: National politics becomes ethnic. Then, the Democratic Party discovered the national ethnic vote — New York Governor Al Smith’s 1928 presidential campaign won the major cities. This northern bloc of Democrats paired with Southern Democrats in 1932 to give the election to Roosevelt. Now, Reps and Dems fret over the Hispanic vote.

Jefferson Cowie’s The Great Exception (2016) illuminates some of these themes. Cowie holds that the New Deal would not have happened except for closing the borders to immigrants by the 1924 Act and exclusion of blacks from full labor and political participation.

 

Asian American voters this November

The data on Asian American public opinion reveal that Asian Americans are shifting in party identification towards the Democratic Party, and exclusionary rhetoric is a likely cause. There has been a 12-point increase in the proportion of Asian Americans who identify as Democrats from 2012 to 2016.

Asian American voters nearly doubled from more than 2 million voters in 2000 to 2000 to 3.9 million voters in 2012. Since in the last three presidential cycles, the number of Asian American voters has grown by an average of 620,000 votes, the 2016 turnout might be 4.4 million voters. Asian Americans will reach 5% of voters nationally by 2025. In battleground states in 2012, they were 6.5% of the voters in Nevada, 3.9% in Virginia, and 1.8% in Florida.

Trump’s unfavorability rate is 48% for 65 yo and older, 63% for 35-64, and 86% for 18-34 yo. 31% have a very or somewhat favorable view of the Republican Party, vs. 65% for the Democratic Party and 68% for Barak Obama.

This information is from a May, 2016 report, Inclusion, Not Exclusion. Apiavote stands for Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote.

2012 exit polls showed at least 70% of Asian-American voters chose Obama. Two decades ago, Asian-Americans reported voting Republican by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. See my post election posting here.

 

The emerging Latino voting bloc in Arizona

Latino voters in Arizona are gradually growing in absolute and percentage terms. A report issued earlier this year, Arizona’s Emerging Latino Vote (published by the Morrison Institute), lays out the trends. In this November’s Senate race, Democratic candidate Richard Carmona, received 45.8% of the vote, more than had been expected in the Summer. Six years from now, winner Jeff Flake will be facing a larger Latinos voting bloc.
According to long range projections of the growth in Latino voters, each year will cause the Latino voter share to increase by on average 0.5%. Latino voters were probably 12% of all voters this November. In six years Flake may likely be looking at an increase in the Latino voting percentage to 15%.
Hispanics now make up 30% of the state’s population. One third of Latino adults are not citizens. The Latino voting population is much younger than non-Latinos (the median Latino age is 25 vs. non-Hispanic whites at 44), suggesting lower voter turnout due to younger age. In 2010, 69% of vote-eligible Latinos voted vs. 8% for non-Hispanic whites.
Thus the actual Latino bloc of voters is probably 12% of actual voters, the percentage projected for 2012. Exit polling indicates that 74% voted for Obama.
Each year, more Latinos become eligible to vote – at a much faster rate than other groups. In 2010, 15% of registered voters were Latino. That is expected to grow to 25% in 2030.
In a June 2012 poll, only 9% of registered Latinos identified themselves as Republican.