Chances a judge will grant you asylum

There is huge disparity among immigration court judges on asylum cases. Some judges deny 90% of cases; others deny 30%.  In the Boston court, the median denial rate is 60% among 26 judges, of whom five have denial rates over 75% and two have denial rates under 25%. In the Houston court, the median denial rate among 22 judges is 91% with no judge under 70%. Efforts to produce less disparate results through data analysis and training appear to have failed.  The high variances within and between courts cast doubt on the trustworthiness of the courts.

I found in my work in the past that special court systems can go seriously wrong, because they were poorly managed and poorly supported by the broader political/governmental constituency. They are in effect run by key participants without any real accountability to the public. One part but only one part of the problem is that the legal community is usually very deficient in the area of system design and oversight.

Go here for statsticics.

 

 

 

Where have Ukrainian refugees gone?

About 25 countries have admitted Ukrainian refugees since early 2022.  Before the war, Ukraine’s population was about 42 million.

Total: approximately 4.9 million, of which 4.2 million are in Europe. Thus about 12% of the population has left due to the war. (Compare this to 30% of the Syrian population having left due to its internal war.)

Germany: 1.2 million

Poland: 975,000

Czechia 375,000

Canada: 300,000

Romania: 170,000

United Kingdom: 160,000

United States: 170,000

The U.S.: These came via Uniting for Ukraine, a humanitarian parole program for temporary stay, much faster than regular refugee admission.  They are not technically refugees. Applicants to Uniting for Ukraine must have a U.S.-based supporter who can sponsor them financially. The sponsor applies to the program on behalf of the applicant, providing evidence of the financial means to support them.

The Uniting for Ukraine program was the model for the Biden administration to launch a similar program with host family sponsorships for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Over 500,000 persons have entered the U.S. under this program.

About 100,000 Afghans have been admitted since the collapse of American presence in mid 2021.

History of large workplace raids, 2006 – 20128

Tom Homan, the “border czar” to work out of the White House, and presumably tell the future Secretary of Homeland Security when to go out for coffee, says that he will resume workforce raids.  Here is a list of large raids since 2000:

These raids were begun under the George W Bush administration, terminated under Obama, and (one instance) brought back under Trump.  Trump is planning mass arrests if he becomes president in 2025.

April, 2006. Several factories of IFCO, a manufacturer of crates and pallet facilities, we raided with arrests of about 1,100 workers and some management staff.

December 2006Swift meat processing plants are raided. The raids took place at plants in Greeley, Colorado; Grand Island, Nebraska; Cactus, Texas; Hyrum, Utah; Marshalltown, Iowa; and Worthington, Minnesota.1,300 ICE agents were involved in the raids, resulting  in the arrests of nearly 1,300 undocumented immigrant workers.

March, 2007.  New Bedford MA clothing factory owned by Michael Bianco Inc raided resulting in about 350 arrests. Here is Senator Ted Kennedy’s statement about the raid.

May, 2008 Raid on Agriprocessors meat processing plant in Postville IA results in arrest of 1,000 workers.

October 2008, Greenville, SC meat processing plant of House of Raeford raided with arrest of about 350 workers,

July 2009 ICE enforcement action against American Apparel, with over 1,000 unauthorized workers, shows shift in enforcement from mass raids to financial penalties. Here abd here are postings about the shift in focus.

April, 2018. Bean Station, TN factory of Southeastern Provision, a family run meat processing plant, raided resulting in the arrest of about 100 workers.

Evidence of extremely few non-citizens on voter logs

I’ve posted in the past on miserably failed efforts to document large scale voting by non-citizens, for instance in Georgia, and in Texas, Florida, South Carolina, New Hampshire (all in this posting) and Virginia. Now here’s Ohio. Each of these efforts try (like the definition of insanity) to perform the same data base matching test, and all confirm there is no problem.

Ohio Secretary of State, Frank LaRose, a member of the Republican Party, who has served since 2019 and has been endorsed by Donald Trump, searched for instance of non-citizens being on voter rolls. He found extremely few.

As reported by Fox News, LaRose has purged 635 persons from the voter rolls on the basis of their motor vehicle registration form stating there are non- citizens and their failure to respond to written inquiry by the state. The office stated, “These individuals failed to respond to notices from the Secretary of State’s office asking that they either confirm their citizenship status or cancel their registration.” The purges happened in two sets – 499 and 136.

The state compared three information sources: voter rolls, motor vehicle registration and the federal SAVE records.  The Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) program is an electronic system operated by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services that allows federal, state, and local government agencies to verify the immigration status of non-citizens applying for public benefits or licenses.

There are approximately 8 million registered voters in Ohio.  This means that one of out 13,000 registered voters were deemed by the state as being non-citizens.

The common flaw in all attempts is the assumption that the matching databases are up to date to the day and that all entries are 100% what the party intended.

 

A critique of Biden’s border policy

Nolan Rappaport has written often on immigration. He is a careful writer. He is in general supportive of broad-based policies and practices to severely restrict Mexican border crossings by migrants. His articles which can be accessed on the internet do not reveal an overall approach to immigration. The article below, which I include in full, was published on June 10 in The Hill.

A tight summary of Rappaport’s article: President Biden’s proposed Senate Border Act of 2024 was a political gambit that would not have closed down illegal (between the ports of entry) crossings. “Catch and release” and legal pathways for entry without visas. The overwhelming backlog in immigration courts further exacerbates the problem, undermining the asylum system and border security.

I have posted often on the broken asylum system the backlogs of which incents people to claim asylum.  Rappaport adds that, in his view, Biden’s 2020 campaign promises and quick reversal of Trump’s draconian border policies stimulated more border crossing – and Biden’s use of Temporary Protective Status only added another incentive.

Note that I have mentioned that courts may not permit Biden use section (212)f of the Immigration and Nationalization Act to override the country’s asylum laws. Rappaport appears confident that the courts will.

The article in full:

When asked if he had done everything he could do to secure the border, President Biden said he can’t get it done with executive power alone. Consequently, he instructed his team to engage in “negotiations with a bipartisan group of senators to seriously, and finally, address the border crisis.”

The negotiations resulted in the Senate Border Act of 2024 (Border Act), which, he says, if enacted, would be “the toughest and fairest set of reforms to secure the border we’ve ever had in our country.” Among other things, it would establish “a new emergency authority to shut down the border when it becomes overwhelmed,” and he would use that authority the day he signed the bill into law.

But Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) claims that Biden hasn’t really tried to secure the border. In fact, since his first day in office, his administration has systematically undermined America’s border security.

I share Johnson’s skepticism about Biden’s intentions. He caused the border crisis with his immigration policies, and the Border Act his team negotiated would not eliminate those policies.

Immigration expert Steven Camarota also thinks that Biden caused the border crisis. Illegal border crossings increased dramatically around the time he took office. This sudden increase surely was caused in large part by Biden’s campaign promises to loosen asylum standards, curtail enforcement and pass an amnesty. These promises created the reasonable belief among undocumented migrants that they would be granted entry at the southern border without a visa.

Moreover, Biden has kept most of his promises, and he has established programs for bypassing the visa system to let undocumented migrants into the country without visas.

His administration has used “catch and release” to let more than 2.3 million migrants into the country without visas during the first three years of the Biden presidency; the number of releases would have been much larger if the administration had not had to expel 2.5 million migrants pursuant to the pandemic-era Title 42 order.

Biden doesn’t need the Border Act to end catch and release. It’s his policy. He could end it by issuing an executive order telling appropriate agency heads to stop doing it.

In fact, the Border Act would permit him to release up to 5,000 illegal border crossers a day.

It has a provision that would give Biden the authority to shut down the border, but it wouldn’t require him to shut down the border unless the seven-day average of illegal crossings rises above 5,000 per day — that’s almost 2 million per year.

In addition, the Border Act doesn’t provide a way to stop him from ignoring the shut-down requirement the way he has ignored the statutory immigration enforcement provisions. And it wouldn’t terminate the “legal pathways” his administration has created to let migrants into the country without visas. Such pathways include special processes for paroling up to 30,000 migrants a month into the country from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, and a Family Reunification Parole Process for nationals from other countries.

The Border Act wouldn’t end the administration’s CBP One mobile application program either. This program permits migrants without visas to schedule inspections at a port of entry on the southwest border. Nearly 250,000 migrants have been inspected as of August 2023, and 99.7 percent of the inspections resulted in letting the migrant into the country. The administration also has used the CBP One program to bring 320,000 inadmissible immigrants from foreign countries to American airports.

Lastly, the Border Act wouldn’t require the administration to enforce the immigration laws against undocumented migrants who have reached the interior of the country. DHS Guidelines for the Enforcement of Civil Immigration Law limit enforcement actions to deportable migrants “who pose a threat to national security, public safety, and border security and thus threaten America’s well-being.” This means that the illegal border crossers the administration releases into the interior of the country are shielded from enforcement proceedings if they are just here in violation of our laws.

They aren’t likely to be deported in any case. There were 1,292,830 migrants subject to final deportation orders in fiscal 2023, and ICE only removed 142,580 of them.

The release of millions of migrants into the country who claim to be asylum seekers overwhelmed the immigration court, which then caused a backlog crisis. The immigration court had a backlog of 1,290,766 cases when Biden began his presidency. It is more than 3,524,051 cases now. Individual immigration judges have an average of more than 4.500 pending cases, and the average wait time for a hearing is 4.3 years.

And the administration is not making progress on eliminating the backlog. As of the end of March in fiscal 2024, the immigration court had received 1,155,024 new cases, and it only had closed 434,996. At this rate, the court would have to have almost three times as many judges just to keep up with new cases.

The Migration Policy Institute says this combination of years-long backlogs and unlikely returns is at the heart of our broken asylum system, and “[t]hat brokenness contributes to the pull factors driving today’s migration to the U.S.-Mexico border, thereby undermining the integrity of the asylum and immigration adjudicative systems, and immigration enforcement overall.”

It may be necessary to suspend the admission of asylum seekers to give the immigration court a chance to catch up, which Biden could do with the authority Congress delegated to presidents in INA Section 212(f).

The Supreme Court held in Trump v. Hawaii that section 212(f) “exudes deference to the President in every clause. It entrusts to the President the decisions whether and when to suspend entry, whose entry to suspend, for how long, and on what conditions.” The sole prerequisite is that the president find that the entry of the covered aliens “would be detrimental to the interests of the United States.”

Moreover, neither the legislative history of section 212(f) nor historical practice justifies departing from its clear text.

We do need immigration reform legislation, but we won’t get the legislation needed to secure the border when Biden’s team leads the negotiations. That puts the fox in charge of guarding the hen house.

Nolan Rappaport was detailed to the House Judiciary Committee as an Executive Branch Immigration Law Expert for three years. He subsequently served as an immigration counsel for the Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims for four years. Prior to working on the Judiciary Committee, he wrote decisions for the Board of Immigration Appeals for 20 years. Follow him at: https://nolanhillop-eds.blogspot.com.

 

 

Florida’s law that makes it illegal to support an unauthorized person

Florida’s FL 1718 was enacted in 2023 and became effective on July 1, 2023. The ACLU and others sued regarding Section 10, which a Florida court on May 21 stayed the application of which. Most of FL 1718 focuses on COVID, banning the requirement of masks by government and educational institutions, proof of vaccination, and such. Section 10 penalizes acts taken in support of unauthorized persons in the state.  According to the Migration Ploicy Institute and Pew Research, about 4% of the state’s population, about 750,000 persons, are unauthorized.

Section 10. Section 787.07, Florida Statutes, is amended to read:

787.07 Human smuggling.—

(1) Except as provided in subsections (3) and (4), a person who knowingly and willfully commits any of the following offenses commits a felony of the third degree, punishable as provided in s. 775.082, s. 775.083, or s. 775.084:

[Prison sentence: Up to 5 years in prison. Fines: A fine of up to $5,000. Probation: The court may impose a period of probation not exceeding 5 years.]

(a) Transports into or within this state an individual whom who the person knows, or reasonably should know, has is illegally entered entering the United States in violation of law and has not been inspected by the Federal Government since his or her unlawful entry.

(b) Conceals, harbors, or shields from detection, or attempts to conceal, harbor, or shield from detection, in any place within this state, including any temporary or permanent

structure or through any means of transportation, an individualwhom the person knows, or reasonably should know, has entered the United States in violation of law and has not been inspected by the Federal Government since his or her unlawful entry from another country commits a felony of the third degree, punishable as provided in s. 775.082, s. 775.083, or s. 775.084.

(2) A person commits a separate offense for each individual he or she transports, conceals, harbors, or shields from detection, or attempts to transport, conceal, harbor, or shield from detection, into this state in violation of this section.

(3) A person who commits five or more separate offenses under this section during a single episode commits a felony of the second degree, punishable as provided in s. 775.082, s. 775.083, or s. 775.084.

(4)(a) A person with a prior conviction under this section commits a felony of the second degree, punishable as provided in s. 775.082, s. 775.083, or s. 775.084.

(b) As used in paragraph (a), the term “conviction” means a determination of guilt that is the result of a plea agreement or a trial, regardless of whether adjudication is withheld or a

plea of nolo contendere is entered.

(5) Proof that a person knowingly and willfully presented false identification or gave false information to a law  enforcement officer who is conducting an investigation for a

violation of this section gives rise to an inference that such person was aware that the transported, concealed, harbored, or shielded individual has entered the United States in violation of the law and had not been inspected by the Federal Government since his or her unlawful entry.

(6) A person who is arrested for a violation of this section must be held in custody until brought before the court for admittance to pretrial release in accordance with chapter 903.

Senate Republican ideas for immigration reform

Most of the 17 points in this document involve very specific changes. Here are the ones which stand out for me:

“Safe third harbor”: makes aliens illegible for asylum if they have transited through at least one country outside their home country unless the aliens can show that they sought and were denied protection in each safe third country.

Parole reform: prohibits DHS from using broad class based criteria to grant humanitarian parole. Narrows the scope of the parole statute to clarify that payroll is to be used rarely. Limits grants and parole to one year with up to one year extension or shorter.

Family detention (referred to as “family unification”) requires that families with children are to be detained intact, vs the Flores settlement of  1997 which strictly limits the duration of detention of children.

Noteworthy is the absence of any effort to reduce the backlog of cases. About 70% of asylum cases are denied by immigration court. And the document does not address issues such as employment-based immigration.

Comment: The 1967 UN Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees doesn’t explicitly tells countries how to assess asylum applications; it requires them to apply the provisions of the 1951 Refugee Convention to refugees, which includes cooperation among countries on managing international refugees. The United States set for itself legal obligations to provide protection to those who qualify as refugees by incorporating the definition of a refugee from the 1951 Convention into U.S. immigration law through the Refugee Act of 1980. U.S. law requires the asylum seeker to be physically present in the United States or at a U.S. port of entry. The law is silent on how or where the person has entered the U.S.

The Tory government in the UK has been blocked by courts from sending ayslee applicants to Rwanda for processing. Italy is arranging with Albania to house ayslee applicants to Italy.

Thumbnail data on immigration courts FY 2023

Number of court cases resolved: 669,000 vs. average past 20 years of about 250,000. However, new cases were 1,448,000. Since 2000 it has taken an average of about 1,000 days for a case to be resolved.

Court ordered deportations: 39% of resolved court cases involved voluntary deportation or deportation in custody — 244,000, the highest number in over 20 years and significantly more than in Trump years.

Court backlog: end of FY23: 2,794,000, in increase of 1,533,000 since 2000.

From Trac

Time line for Trump’s child separation policy

The best documented story of the Trump Administration’s child separation policy’s origins, implementation and deception was written by Caitlin Dickerson in the Atlantic in December, 2022 (go here). Here is a transcript of Dickerson recounting how she did her research.

The Trump Administration took office on January 20, 2017. It appears to have immediately started to plan to separate children from their parents when both crossed the U.S. border without permission (i.e. not at an official border crossing).

February 17, 2017– An interagency meeting was held to discuss a plan.

Reuters reported on March 3 that such a plan was under consideration, other news outlets also reported on the plan.

On March 29, 2017 Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly denied that the administration was planning to separate children from parents. His statement was part of a program of deception which lasted for months after the plan was implemented.

Early 2017: Border Patrol agents in El Paso, began a program that involved separating children from parent upon DHS – mandated policy for arrest and detainment of families.  The first formal document unearthed for this policy is dated later, July 10. Additional documents indicate that Border Patrol personnel along the length of the border gradually learned about and began to implement the policy.

April 6, 2018 – Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced a “zero tolerance” policy directing authorities to prosecute all instances of illegal border crossings. On May 7, Sessions announced that the Department of Homeland Security would refer 100% of illegal border crossings to the Department of Justice for prosecution. This expands the policy of separating families. These statements were effectively the first highly visible, non-ambiguous publicized statements made by the Administration on the policy.

June, 2018. Media, church, and political concern explode. The ACLU files a class action suit, which is the basis of the ultimate settlement (see below).

June 20, 2018 –  President Trump signed Executive Order 13841 to end family separations at the border. However, the EO does not address reuniting families already separated.

June 26, 2018 – A federal judge ordered that separated children under five years must be reunited with their parents within 14 days, and all children must be reunited by July 26.

February 22, 2021 – the Biden Administration issues Executive Order 14011 establishing a task force to reunite all children not yet reunited.

September 15, 2023 – the Biden task force reports: 4,227 children were separated between spring 2017 and June, 2018. Between then and February 22, 2021, 2,222 or 53% of the children had been reunited. Another 904 were reunited by September. 15, 2023. The remaining 1,101 were on September 15 in process of being reunited or believed to be in the right hands.

October 16, 2023– Biden Administration settles ACLU’s lawsuit. According to the LA Times, people who were separated from their families would qualify for lawful entry, three-year, renewable work permits, and housing, health and legal services benefits. They would be able to apply for asylum regardless of previous denils, and wouldn’t be subject to the usual one year asylum application deadline.

 

 

 

 

Two websites with easy to read explanations about immigration law

The immigration law community thrives on complexity. These two website help to make the labyrinth more transparent.

Unshackled – a book and a free newsletter “aimed at helping you navigate immigration in America like a champ. Unshackled is the only book in the market that combines expert advice with stories & engaging visuals.”

Boundless – “Insights and expertise from the only visa company recognized by the U.S. government Step-by-step guidance, with live support 7 days a week, and attorney review for all family visa services. “ A lot of free briefs on aspects of immigration law.