Why there will be a major immigration bill during the next administration

The next administration, with Congressional support, will shift immigration for the first time since the 1965 liberalization act from family and humanitarian priorities to economic development priorities. This will happen regardless of who wins and will involve a major bipartisan legislative act.

A Trump victory portends a drastic reduction of immigration. A Harris victory will prolong what I view as Democratic paralysis over immigration, with inclusivists insisting on relatively open borders for a diverse population of immigrants. I believe that in either administration, there will emerge consensus for a third approach: more constrained immigration with a visible commitment to skilled worker immigration, such as I have often posted about Canada and Australia.

Driving this new consensus will be a national strategy of targeted government investment to spur private sector growth, strengthen domestic industries, and promote American economic interests. It aims to create jobs, boost competitiveness, and build a stronger foundation for long-term economic prosperity.  This strategy was already introduced by Biden in his three major legislative acts: the Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act.

Democratic politicians, I believe, realize that the 2021-2024 very large increase in migration, largely of a humanitarian kind, is politically costly. There will be an emerging consensus that an immigration strategy consistent with Biden’s truly historic commitment to state engagement in economic investment is needed.  Democrats will align with Republicans (most notable in the Senate) to fashion a pro-economic growth immigration bill.

Biden not to renew temporary special visas for four countries

The Department of Homeland Security confirmed that the Biden administration will not renew some 530,000 temporary visas issues to under a specially designed program to relieve pressure on the Mexican border (go here.) It is not clear how these persons will be removed from the United States. The current visas are valid for two years. That this will create some havoc is an understatement.

It is hard to avoid concluding that this decision, made a month before the presidential election, was driven by politics. JD Vance has referred to these persons are “illegal” on the grounds that the program, faced with a lawsuit, was illegally created. Trump is sure to cancel the program if he is elected. Within a global context, Biden is trimming back inclusive immigration policies, as Canada and Australia have in the past six months.

I have posted here about the Biden administration’s humanitarian parole program for Venezuela, begun in 2022, and in 2023 for Cuba, Haiti and Nicaragua – the so-called semi-privatized CHNV program. By this program, persons could enter the U.S. at their own cost of air flights and with a financial guarantor.

According to Customs and Border Protection, Through the end of August 2024, nearly 530,000 CHNV citizens arrived: more than 110,000 Cubans, more than 210,000 Haitians, nearly 93,000 Nicaraguans, and nearly 117,000 Venezuelans arrived lawfully and were granted parole.

Since DHS has implemented these safe, orderly and lawful processes, encounters of CHNV nationals in between by land formal ports of entry are down by 99%. This shows how the program was designed to relieve pressure at the Mexican border.

What Trump has in mind for immigration

An article by Elizabeth Carlson and Charles Wheeler, published in September 2024 in the Journal of Migration and Human Security, outlines potential immigration policies under a second Trump administration. It predicts a continuation and intensification of measures from Trump’s first term, focusing on border security, deportation, and legal immigration restrictions.

The article is a useful checklist of potential actions. Missing from their article is consideration of major legislative changes which I think is likely if both houses of Congress have Republican majorities: Trump will likely use the threat of severely disruptive executive orders (such as termination of DACA) to force through systematic restrictions. Look for Senator Tom Cotton to lead the Congressional initiative (go here). Key provisions of Cotton’s RAISE Act, filed in 2017, are: reducing legal immigration by about 50% over 10 years;  a skills-based points system for immigration visas; limiting family-sponsored immigration to spouses and minor children of U.S. citizens and permanent residents; eliminating the diversity visa lottery program; and capping refugee admissions at 50,000 per year

Some of their key predictions include the following.

Interior enforcement: A shift in enforcement priorities will target all undocumented individuals rather than focusing on those posing security threats. Trump has several times said he plans massive deportation.  I have addressed this plan here.

Border security: Trump plans to construct more sections of the border wall.  He may try to restore the “Remain in Mexico” program (which requires Mexico’s participation) and Title 42 (which is statutorily bas ed on public health concerns).

Legal immigration restrictions: The administration aims to reduce family-based immigration and impose strict ideological screenings for visa applicants. Senator Cotton wants this severally cut back and a points system introduced to select skilled workers.

Public charge rules: These rules define what public services immigrants can have legal access to (such as public housing, public health insurance, maternal and children services).  Trump tried to sharply reduce access. A federal court denied the proposed rules changes (go here). Trump may re-introduce these changes.

Asylum: The first Trump administration sought to completely dismantle the country’s asylum program, which depends greatly on non-government organizations to receive and support asylum beneficiaries, and to cut back several on admissions. Trump cut admissions from a prevailing level of about 85,000 a year to 12,000 a year. Biden has restored the program aiming at the 100,000 per year level

Humanitarian programs: Temporary admission programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS) could be terminated or significantly scaled back. Country-specific parole programs introduced by the Biden administration are likely to be ended. I have addressed his apparent goal of terminating some or all TPS admissions here.

Immigration courts: The administration is expected to limit prosecutorial discretion in immigration courts, increasing case backlogs. The backlog for asylum cases is now about 3.4 million.

 

 

 

 

Boston Globe article “Gov Abbott was right about the border”

Carine Hajjar has written a much needed article on how states like Massachusetts are feeling the effect of the Mexican border crisis. (I posted on this here and here.) Either party has been forthcoming about what is at the core of the border crisis: a system of awarding asylum which is both vitally important for world harmony and yet is unable to work reliably at today’s scale of global migration. The Biden administration has failed to level with the public about this, leaving even its supporters confused and dispirited. I am struck by how Pamala Harris has not been effectively challenged by the media or by Republicans.

The next administration needs to package asylum reform with other immigration changes.  While comprehensive overhaul seems unlikely, compromise over incremental reforms including asylum policy may – must – work.

Hajjar notes that Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have been warning about the burden of migrants crossing the border.

Massachusetts announced limitations to its migrant shelter policies after spending about $1 billion on emergency housing, including offering to pay for travel for eligible families to go to other states.

She writes that the Biden administration’s policies have played a central role in creating this crisis, from rolling back the Remain in Mexico policy to expanding humanitarian parole. [To be sure, the Remain in Mexico policy requires Mexican concurrence.]

Blue state leaders, Hajjar notes, have largely blamed Congress and former President Trump for the crisis, rather than directly criticizing the Biden administration. If Democratic leaders like Governor Healey were to acknowledge the current situation as a “Biden crisis,” it could pave the way for negotiations on border security and comprehensive immigration reform. This I agree with: a limited scope, compromise-arrived at agreement on immigration reform.

Biden has greatly cut back on Mexican border encounters. Here is how,

 

This posting is about the Mexican border, drawing largely upon a thoroughly researched report by WOLA.  If you work through this posting you will get a understanding of how measures undertaken by the Biden administration and some Central American countries are significantly reducing and adding more controls over entering the U.S.

(I want to note that asylum seekers having been showing up in larger numbers at the Canadian border.

Overlapping crackdowns have cut U.S. border encounters. Border crossings have dropped sharply as an immediate result of two overlapping 2024 crackdowns on migration, which have been especially hard on migrants seeking protection. First, since the beginning of the year, the government of Mexico has stepped up aggressive efforts to block migrants, busing tens of thousands of them to the southern part of the country. That caused migration between ports of entry (26 formally named as such) to drop by 50% from December 2023 to January 2024.

Second, in early June, the administration launched a second crackdown: a proclamation and rule refusing asylum to most people who cross the border between ports of entry during busy times. At least for now, the additional measure has cut migration in half again: a 52% drop in Border Patrol apprehensions from May to July 2024.

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) wants to channel all asylum applications through its app. CPB One app, introduced in 2020 but only begun to be used a lot in early 2023. CBP has not adjusted the number of available appointments since June 2023. The border-wide maximum is 1,450 per day.

Texas’s state government crackdown has not reduced or deterred migration. Texas has not experienced a steeper migration decline than Arizona, where the Democratic governor has not pursued similar hard-line measures.

The drop in migration is plateauing. Migrants and smugglers go into a sort of “wait and see” mode as they learn how the new policy is being implemented. After migration “bottoms out,” it begins to recover and rise again, usually after a few months.

More migrants are dying even as migration drops. At Border Patrol ’s El Paso Sector, Border Patrol reported 164 remains recovered in the sector as of August 19, with six very hot weeks remaining in the 2024 fiscal year.

Releases from Border Patrol custody into the U.S. interior have dropped sharply. Due to strict implementation of the Biden administration’s June, 2024, asylum ban on persons crossing between ports of entry, releases from Border Patrol custody have plummeted: 12,110 people received a Notice to Appear (NTA) or parole in July 2024, 94% fewer than last December and the fewest since January 2021. Only 21% of migrants apprehended between ports of entry in July were released, the smallest percentage since January 2021.

Use of Expedited Removal has hit record levels. Nearly half of migrants apprehended between port of entry by Border Patrol in July 2024 were placed in expedited removal proceedings, a rapid process for deporting people without giving them hearings, usually while they are still in custody at the border, and with removal usually within a few days.

Venezuelans, Cubans, and Haitians have turned almost exclusively to CBP One and therefore formal, legal entry, rather than to try to enter between formal ports. That is lmosy likely due to the existence of the Humanitarian Parole program which admits 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans. (Go here for an overview of Biden’s extensive use of Parole.)

The geographic diversity of migration has expanded. Border-wide through April, 11% of migrants apprehended by Border Patrol in fiscal 2024 were from Europe, Asia, or Africa, compared to 9% in FY 2023 and 4% in FY 2022.

Darién Gap migration has dropped. Panama’s new president, José Raúl Mulino, inaugurated on July 1, ordered a few miles of barbed wire laid along some frequently traveled routes through the Darién and, with U.S. financial backing, has now launched a program of deportation flights that appears to aim to operate at a tempo of three or four planes per week. This month, about 400 persons are completing the Darian Gap journey compared to about 2,000 a year ago.

Parole for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela restarted

The Biden administration’s Humanitarian Parole program for persons from four countries, which had been suspended, is now back in place. This program is basically a way to siphon off persons who would otherwise appear at the Mexican border. The program was created in 2023 when the administration imposed new restrictions on asylum seekers at the Mexican border. It provides for two years’ stay in the U.S.  Persons have to be financially sponsored and pay their own way to the U.S. The program was vulnerable to abuse by parties who were not legimate sponsors. (Go here.)

According to ABC News, DHS said an internal review found some cases of fraud, such as sponsors using fake Social Security numbers, but that the majority of cases it investigated had a reasonable explanation, such as a typo when a sponsor was submitting information online. “Since the inception of the process, a very small number of supporters were found to have fraud or criminal issues warranting referral to law enforcement for investigation and/or appropriate action,” the agency said.

Homeland Security also said it had not found issues in vetting the migrants themselves, saying those who come to the U.S. under the program “have been thoroughly screened and vetted.”

 

 

 

Go here.

Parole program halted due to abuse concerns

The Department of Homeland Security has halted further admissions through a Biden program to let people from certain countries into the U.S. on a temporary basis. The reason for the halt has not been stated, but the Miami Herald reports it is due to concerns about fraud.

This is an intensely attractive venue for entry; the program is overwhelmed – just like the amnesty system, with its backlog of 3.4 million applications.  Family and friends in the U.S are trying to push through applications.  Some applicants have been waiting for well over a year. It is inevitable that many applications will have sketchy if not fraudulent elements, such as manipulation in making financial attestations and actors seeking to game the process.

The Humanitarian Parole for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans, or CHNV parole process, was established by the Biden administration in January 2023. was modeled after the Uniting for Ukraine program, which was implemented in 2022 to assist Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion.

The program was created to reduce the number of persons coming to the Mexican border to apply for asylum. It has been credited with reducing these numbers. But, like a balloon pressed down in one part, another part will expand.

The program allows up to 30,000 individuals per month from these four countries to enter the U.S. for a period of up to two years, provided they have a U.S.-based supporter who agrees to financially support them during their stay.  About 500,000 people from these four countries had flown to the United States through the end of June: over 100,000 Cubans, roughly 200,000 Haitians, more than 90,000 Nicaraguans, and more than 110,000 Venezuelans.

DHS considers an average of only 1,000 applications a day. CHNV parole applications must be filed online. This has created a backlog 2.6 million records. (Many of these may be duplicates due to USCIS’s rules that can delete an application prematurely, which incents people to multiple file.)

Comment: This program is shifting a big part of the border crisis into a bureaucratic backroom that does not produce photos of persons crossing the border.

For the Miami Herald article, go here. For an aggressive allegation of major fraud go here. for another perspective, go here.

 

 

Trump: Nothing new on immigration

Former president Trump could have, in last night’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention, moved on from dystopian rhetoric about immigration to propose an historical reform of immigration laws, matching in importance the Immigration Act of 1924 (Johnson-Reed Act), Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 (Hart-Celler Act), and the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA).

The last time there has been a serious proposal for comprehensive immigration reform was in legislation drafted by the ”Gang of 8” senators from both parties in 2013.  This draft provides a framework which Republican senators today such as Senator Tom Cotton to work with. He proposes a reduction of immigration from about one million to 500,000 and a shift towards a point system such as used by Canada and Australia.

However,  Trump simply brought forward his demonization of immigrants as illegals sprung from jails and mental hospitals from Venezuela and other Latin American countries.

If Trump is elected, I expect that the administration, if Republicans win the House and Senate, to abandon the DACA program and rescind much of the temporary authorizations which Biden made under Temporary Protection Status and Parole.  This will make the controversy over child separation (its timeline is here) look like a picnic.

 

 

 

 

Public opinion: less support for immigration, contradictory views

Gallup reports today in a June poll that public opinion is shifting towards reducing the level of immigration. The partisan divide has widened and the saliency of the issue has increased. Yet overall people appear to be confused and much wanting clarity and competence by the administration.

A majority – 55% — believe that immigration should be decreased, up from 28% in May, 2020. All major political points of view show an increase from 2023 in support for a decrease. It has been over 70% of Republicans for some time, now is over 80%; Independents went form 39% to 50%, and Democrats 18% to 28%. Today, only a quarter (26%) of Democrats want immigration to increase. The implicit level of immigration in an early 2021 Biden bill would have, in my estimate, increased immigration from about one million to 1.5 million.

Since 2020 the percentage people who think immigration is a “good thing” dropped from 77% to 64%.

Republicans are much more likely to consider immigration a very important issue than independents and Democrats.

Not this poll, but other recent polls, show that the saliency of the issue has risen overall, from about 10% to 20% saying that this is the most important issue.

This and prior polls show that people are very conflicted. When asked if persons here illegally should be deported, 37% said yes in 2019 and 47% said yes in 2023. However, in stark contradiction, in 2023 70% agreed with this statement: “Allowing immigrants living in the U.S. illegally the chance to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain requirements over a period of time.” An even higher percentage – 81% — supported citizenship for DACA beneficiaries.

 

 

 

Mass deportation planned by Trump

Reportedly at Donald Trump’s request, the GOP platform released on July 8 endorses the idea of mass deportations. (See the actual language at the end.) Since announcing his candidacy for President, he has tried to make immigration a potent political issue. Mass deportation will make the child separation policy of the Trump administration in early 2017 look like unwarranted minor controversy. It will provoke highly visible, concerted opposition, including by the media. Democratic candidates for November will turn the issue into a cause celebre.

Mass deportation is a uniquely Trumpian idea. It is not present or implied in Republican proposals for immigration reform such as by Senator Cotton of the House Republican’s H.R.2.

In France and England, extreme anti-immigration has shown to be a rallying cry for perhaps 15% of the voting public.  The rest of the electorate has either mixed feelings, and/or is irked by anti-immigration appeals.  The French and British elections in the past week reflect this distribution of sentiment.

There are about 11 million unauthorized persons in the U.S.  Most unauthorized immigrants have been in the U.S.  likely for over 10 years. 38% of undocumented immigrants are parents of US citizens.  I expect that pro-immigration groups, including the many evangelicals who are Hispanic (who make up a third of all evangelicals)  will vigorously oppose a mass deportation initiative.

To carry out a mass deportation strategy will require participation by state and local law enforcement. Oklahoma is the only state I know that requires police to turn in persons they think are here illegally. Roughly half of the unauthorized population live in blue states.

The GOP platform passage:

Begin largest deportation program in American history: President Trump and Republicans will reverse the Democrat’s destructive open borders policies that have allowed criminal gangs and the legal aliens from around the world to roam the United States without consequences. The Republican party is committed to sending illegal aliens back home and removing those who have violated our laws.

 

 

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