Estimates of the number of Americans living outside the United States are very rough and quite varied. Heitor David Pinto delved into the complex way in which one would define and an American (see note below). He does not take into account how many in his estimate may be spending part time abroad and part time in the United States. Overall, he estimates that there are about 5.5 million U.S. citizens who are living outside the country.  1.2 million citizens per his estimate live in Mexico and one million live in Canada. About 300,000 live in the United Kingdom. 280,000 live in Isreal, the equivalent to about 3% of the non-Arab population of Isreal.

Note that the organization promoting Pinto’s estimate, the Associations of Americans Resident Overseas, is most likely to favor a high estimate

How Pinto came to his estimate

The United Nations estimates that about 3 million American live outside the U.S. (go here).

Pinto started from data compiled by the United Nations for 2020 from the most recent census of every country, and updated it with U.S. census data for 2022 and with census data for the years 2010 – 2023 from some individual countries. The census data of each country shows the number of people residing there who were born in each other country so, in the case of Americans abroad, it means only people born in the U.S. Pinto then took the more detailed census data from some countries showing parents’ place of birth to estimate the number of Americans born there from a parent who was born in the U.S., and applied it to all other countries proportionally.

His analysis presents the number of U.S. citizens living abroad as people born in the U.S. plus those born abroad with at least a parent who was born in the U.S. (so it includes the so-called “accidental Americans”). He also included naturalized citizens, assuming that they have the same emigration rate from the U.S. as the rest of the U.S. population. This analysis is an admitted simplification, as it includes some people who are not U.S. citizens (those born in the U.S. from foreign diplomats, or born abroad from American parents who didn’t reside in the U.S. for enough years to transmit U.S. citizenship, or those who renounced U.S. citizenship). But there is no data available to estimate these particular cases and their numbers are thought to be relatively small. Mr. Pinto’s estimate does not include military personnel or their families.

Today there are about 3 million persons in the United states who were born in India, compared to one million in 2000.  That is a compound annual rate of growth of 5% and that does not take into account the children whom first generation indians are producing. (The annual growth rate for the entire popution was about 0.9%).

Here are some facts, drawn from 2023 by the Migration Policy Institute. They capture how Indians have a distinct advantage over other immigrants and even native born persons in terms of thriving economically.  It is very interesting that Indian immigrants are now quite visible among Republican Party ranks, just as they are among Conservative Party ranks in the United kingdom.

The distinctive profile of Indian immigrants in America today is influenced by several factors that are not readily apparent. The surge in their arrival matched the growing demand for STEM talent. As with most other recent immigrants, they have come well educated and at prime working age. In very different specific ways they are similar to the arrival of German Jews in the 1930s whose talents in science and the arts were quickly absorbed.  Who are the Einsteins and Billy Wilders among our 3 million Indians?

The educational head start: Among persons 25 years or older, 81% of Indians have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 35% of all immigrants and 36% of native born. This means that the second generation of Indians grow up in an educated household.

Income is higher: In 2023, households headed by an Indian immigrant had a median annual income of $166,200, compared to $78,700 for all immigrant-led and $77,600 for native-led households. Indian immigrants were roughly half as likely to be in poverty (6 percent) as immigrants overall (14 percent) or the U.S. born (12 percent). Poverty is an income below $30,900 for a family of four in 2023. I suspect that many Indians in poverty are actually students.

Indians have better health insurance coverage: In 2023, just 4 percent of immigrants from India were uninsured, compared to 6 percent of the native born and 18 percent of the overall foreign-born population. Indian immigrants were more likely to be covered by private health insurance than the overall foreign-born and U.S.-born populations, reflecting their strong labor force participation and employment in high-skilled jobs that often come with employer-provided health insurance.

The intergenerational factor: In 2023 their median age was 42 years old, compared to 47 for all immigrants and 37 for the native-born population. This is due to the high number of working-age adults: 81 percent of all Indian immigrants were ages 18 to 64 and 58 percent of the native born.  Behind these figures is that high number of children born to immigrants and who are now counted, of course, as native born.  Immigration is a multi-generational phenomenon – immigrants being more of working age tend to produce relatively more children.

A study done in 2016 sought to compare the K-12 education experience of children of foreign-born parents with children of U.S. born parents.

The base line economic profile of these households shows that immigrant households overall have lower economic status (though there is the hour glass effect of relatively many immigrant households with little formal education and at the other end a concentration of highly educated immigrants).

The proportion enrolled in charter schools was twice as large among students of immigrant parents as among those with native parents: 12% versus 6%. On the other hand, the proportion enrolled in private schools was only about half as large: 6% versus 10%.

The proportion of students earning “mostly A” grades was 51% among students with immigrant parents and 48% among those with native-born parents. The proportion of parents contacted by their child’s school, due to a learning problem the child was having, was 16% in the immigrant group, versus 22% of U.S.-born parents who had been similarly contacted. The proportion of students diagnosed with a psychological or physical disability was 14% in the immigrant parent group, versus. 24% so diagnosed in the native-born parent group. The study notably did not address if immigrant parents were more concerned about stigmatizing their children.

The proportion of parents contacted by their child’s school, due to a conduct or disciplinary problem the child was creating, was 12% in the immigrant group versus 17% of U.S.-born parents who had been similarly contacted. The proportion of students who had ever been suspended or expelled from school was 4% versus 7%.

The study reported that immigrant children are more likely to live in two parent households.

91% of immigrant parents expected their children to get a college degree, which was significantly higher than the 72% of native parents.  57% of immigrant parents expected their children to get graduate or professional degrees, versus 36% of native parents. Students with immigrant parents who expected them to get graduate or professional degrees were more likely to get A’s in school than those whose parents had lower expectations (57% versus 34%). This was the case even after adjusting for the parents’ education level and family income, the student’s grade level and sex, and whether the student lived with two married birth parents.

Data as of 2023. The replacement rate is 2.1. The global fertility rate of 2.41 is over 2.1 due to African and Middle Eastern countries. The American fertility is elevated by immigration in that recent immigrants are more concentrated in child-bearing years than is the U.S. born population (Immigrants as birthing factory).

Nigeria                  5.13

The World          2.41

Indonesia           2.11

India                       2.0

Russia                   1.82

United States    1.78

China                     1.70

France                   1.68

Brazil                      1.66

UK                           1.44

Germany             1.35

Canada                1.26

Italy                         1.21

 

Average annual percentage increase from 2000 to 2050:
1. The entire US population: 0.61% per year
2. The population 65 and older: 2.09% per year

The total US population is projected to increase from 331 million in 2020 to 379 million in 2050, growing at a decelerating rate.  The population aged 65 and older is projected to grow from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million in 2050.

The impact of immigration is captured by the likelihood that by the early 2030s one third of the workforce will be first or second generation immigrants.

Brookings notes that starting in the late 2000s there was significant increase of annual deportations, to the level of about 400,000, which then subsided. Neither Obama supporters nor Republicans wanted to note that deportations rose under Obama. (Also go here). Trump has said he will undertake massive deportations of unauthorized residents. (The other day, the Biden administration said it will, in effect, deport some 500,000 humanitarian parole residents when their two years’ stay is up (go here.)

Brookings notes the effect of massive deportation. It does not provide a comprehensive assessment; instead, focuses on a few sectors, and then rather shallowly:

“When construction companies have a sudden reduction in available laborers, they must reduce the number of construction site managers they hire. Similarly, local restaurants need cooks to stay open and hire for other positions like waiters, which are more likely to be filled by U.S.-born workers. Caregiving and household service jobs are also common among unauthorized immigrants. The availability and cost of these services in the private market greatly impacts whether people can work outside the home. “