Archive for the ‘Demographics’ Category

The aging of the white race in America

Friday, May 3rd, 2019

From the Brookings Institution:

The picture being painted for the upcoming decades is one of a rapidly growing largely white native born senior population, that is becoming dependent on a more slow growing and increasingly diverse child and labor force aged population.

The white population is projected to decline.  This decline has already occurred for whites under the age of 18 since 2000. Census projections show the decline will continue for whites in their 20s and 30s in the two decades ahead. Only whites over age 65 show significant projected growth. This means that all of the growth in the nation’s youth and tepidly growing labor force population will come from racial minorities and particularly new minorities.

The 2020 census will show that a majority of the under-18 population will identify with races other than white. This will especially be the case for the 18-29 year old labor force aged population in 2030, when whites will account for 48% in this age group, Hispanics 27%, Blacks 13% and Asians 7.%

Table: numeric absolute change in population by race, 2020 – 2030 (in millions):

More undocumented from Mexico

Wednesday, May 1st, 2019

Politico searched New York City and the Mexican state of Puebla find more people from that state come to the city as undocumented. I wrote a few days ago about Jorge Vargas, who lived in New York City for 12 years and was raising a family before being deported back to Puebla. Here are other stories.

Still in New York: Lazaro Cortes arrived in New York from Puebla when he was 18, and started working as dishwashers. “New York eats you up,” says Cortes, now 33, who takes the train every day from Queens to his job at a restaurant in Manhattan. “All restaurants in Manhattan pay Poblanos the minimum wage or less. I cook steaks in minutes that cost more than my entire day’s salary. We’re exploited, but we cannot complain because we’re undocumented,” he says, adding, “I don’t have a life. Everything is work. I stand in the kitchen all day, every day. I have no health insurance, no vacation. Like all of us, if I were deported, I’d return to Mexico sick and spent.”

Three daughters: Leonor Rodriguez, 54 lives in a small village in Puebla scattered with cinder-block homes built with remittances from the United States. Rodriguez’s three daughters were initially deported after trying to cross the border near Nuevo Laredo in early 2018. They stayed at a detention center in Texas before returning 15 days later to their parents in Chilchotla. “I was happy to have them back home, but they were determined to try again,” says Rodriguez.

Her daughters successfully re-crossed the border one month later. The three women now share a small apartment in New York with other family members. All of them work to send money back to Mexico, where their own children stayed behind with Leonor. “I don’t know how to read. We’re poor. My children send us $150 a month to help us survive.”

Back in Puebla: Maria Montenegro crossed the border with her husband in 1997. They settled in Brooklyn, where they had two daughters. “My husband would not allow me to work there,” she says, “so after three years I returned to Mexico with my daughters to have my own life. He stayed behind.” When her husband was deported in August 2017, Montenegro, now 42 and running a small catering business in San Félix Rijo, Puebla, says she had not seen him for nine years. “As far as I was concerned, we were separated. His only responsibility was to send money to take care of our daughters. Since he returned, he’s become an abusive man. I hardly know him anymore. He came back very violent, as if I was responsible for his deportation. The wives of deported husbands are the ones who suffer the most in Mexico. Nobody thinks about us.”


Half of pop growth in U.S. is by immigrants

Sunday, April 28th, 2019

The share of U.S. population growth attributable to immigrants hit 48% for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2018, up from 35% in fiscal 2011.

The general fertility rate in 2017 for women age 15 to 44 was 60.2 births per 1,000 women—the lowest since the government began tracking it more than a century ago, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

Fourteen states and the District of Columbia drew on immigration for more than half of their growth last fiscal year, including Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The figures encompass people moving to and from the U.S., including an influx from Puerto Rico in the wake of Hurricane Maria in 2017. Migration from Puerto Rico is counted as immigration by the Census Bureau though the island is a U.S. territory and its residents are U.S. citizens.

Since 2010, the biggest share of immigrants—41%—has come from Asia, according to separate census figures. A fifth, or 21%, has come from Mexico and Central America.

From the Wall Street Journal.

National opinions about immigration

Thursday, April 18th, 2019

Pew Research surveyed 18 countries for opinions about immigration. In 10 of the countries surveyed, majorities view immigrants as a strength rather than a burden. Among them are some of the largest migrant receiving countries in the world: the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Canada and Australia (each hosting more than 7 million immigrants in 2017).

The table shows five countries. It leaves out some countries which are extremely hostile to immigration, including Hungary and Isreal.

By contrast, majorities in five countries surveyed – Hungary, Greece, South Africa, Russia and Israel – see immigrants as a burden to their countries. With the exception of Russia, these countries each have fewer than 5 million immigrants.

Meanwhile, public opinion on the impact of immigrants is divided in the Netherlands. In Italy and Poland, more say immigrants are a burden, while substantial shares in these countries do not lean one way or the other (31% and 20% respectively).

Where to migrants live in the world?

Sunday, April 14th, 2019

The United State hosts 44 million migrants, or 19% of all migrants in the world.


The divergence over immigration

Monday, April 8th, 2019

Democrats and Republicans largely thought alike about immigration until after around 2010. A widening gap grew not only over immigration, but also over other issues such as over race and racial justice. Democrats have moved much more left since about 2010.

From an article in Vox


Interviews with caravan members on Mexico / Guatemala border

Saturday, April 6th, 2019

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees interviewed, in January 2019, 409 persons on the Mexico-Guatemala border, next to the international bridge, in Chiapas. 75% were from Honduras; 13% from Guatemala; 9% from El Salvador and 3% from Nicaragua. A third had arrived at the border in large caravans.

63% said they left their country due to being a victim of violence, or out of fear of violence. 70% said that to return to their country would expose them to risks, including risk of death.

Only 7% said that they had sought asylum in Mexico. Among the reasons for not seeking asylum in Mexico were misleading information or lack of knowledge; that the process was long; and that they were seeking to enter the U.S.
The interviews revealed that 46% preferred to resettle in Mexico, while 30% wanted to go elsewhere, principally the U.S.

The majority of persons interviewed were member of a family group. A third were women and 31% were children. 9% of children were traveling without a parent or legal guardian.

From here.

Dreamers: key demographics

Thursday, April 4th, 2019

An expanded scope of the Dreamer (DACA) executive order by President Obama would result in slightly over two million individuals to be protected. Sixty percent live in five states.

On average, they arrived in the U.S. at age 8, in about 2000. This indicates that on average they are about 27 years old now, well past formal education and at work. Their households total about seven million people.

From here.

Huge impact of immigrant Asians on social mobility

Saturday, March 30th, 2019

A major study performed by Harvard researchers found extremely strong upward mobility among children of low income immigrant Asian mothers. The retail store worker’s child who graduated from U.C. Berkeley is not an urban legend.

The researchers looked at the income rank in society of people in their late 30s compared to the income rank of their parents. The purpose of the study was to understand mobility – up, no change, or down – from the parents to the child. They studied patterns by geography and racial/ethnic groups. Of interest to me is that they compared the results of whether the mother was born in the U.S. or was an immigrant.

For whites, Hispanics, blacks and native Americans, there was virtually no difference in mobility of children of native-born or immigrant mothers. But for Asians the mobility is dramatically higher where the mother was an immigrant with relatively low income. That is, children of low income Asian mothers are far more likely to work their way out of low income status, compared to all other types of lower income households: native born Asian mothers, and whites, Hispanics, blacks and native Americans.

As reported here.

Caribbean immigrants in U.S.

Wednesday, March 20th, 2019

from here.