Conditions for ICE detainees at 26 Federal Plaza in New York City

ICE has temporary holding rooms in New York City at 26 Federal Plaza, a federal office building. The location is intended for brief custody, generally 12 hours or less, while people are processed or transferred to a detention facility. The rooms have no beds, cots, showers, or windows.

In Sergio Alberto Barco Mercado v. Markwayne Mullin, et al., Judge Lewis A. Kaplan of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled on September 24 that even after temporary orders improved conditions, ICE exceeded room capacities, failed to provide confidential legal calls and used other floors to hold detainees contrary to the court’s orders.

Page 108 of the opinion:

“The conditions of confinement to which ICE subjected immigration detainees at 26 Fed during the summer of 2025 were inhumane and unconstitutional. By detaining far more persons in the hold rooms than ever was intended and for far longer than ever was intended, ICE objectively deprived detainees of sleep, sanitary living conditions, basic personal hygiene needs, sufficient food and water, and adequate medical care. ICE prevented detainees from accessing counsel, who might have stood in the way of what it was doing. Some of these deprivations impacted detainees immediately; others only after longer periods. ICE knew, or should have known, that how it was treating detainees was wrong, yet it continued to do it anyway. It did so to inflict punishment on detainees and induce them to self-deport. The [Temporary Restraining Order] and [Preliminary Injuction of Sept 17, 2025] abated ICE’s constitutional violations, but ICE’s ongoing noncompliance and the cognizable danger that it, amid rising immigration arrests, again will use 26 Fed as the “give” in the system prove that a permanent fix is needed to protect the Constitution against the administration’s mass deportation program.”

Why anti immigration has stopped metastasizing in the U.S. 

Anti-immigration political movements arise out of perceptions of lost control, cultural change and unequal treatment.  Anti-immigration politics is surging in Germany, is strong in the UK – and is peaking in the U.S. despite Trump’s efforts.

A snapshot of Germany, the United Kingdom and the U.S.:

Germany: Alternative für Deutschland (AfD): 201% of seats in the Bundestag (Feb 2025 elections),  success in Saxony-Anhalt 9/6/26 – about 44%, in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania 9/20/26 – 38% of vote vs. 17% in 2021. In Berlin, 16%.

United Kingdom: the political party situation is less clear because of the controversial dynamics of the Reform Party’s leadership. In the past two weeks landings of boats conveying potential asylum applicants have been interrupted in highly visible forms of protest.  Per YouGov in August, 69% think immigration over the last decade has been too high, and the share saying migration has been “mostly bad for the UK” went from 10 points since 2016 to 43%.

United States: Over the past 25 or so years, the Dem and Rep parties gradually and then quickly homogenized their leadership into inclusive (Dem) and restrictionist (Rep) positions.  However, at the electoral / voting level, American politics has remained internally confused, captured in a mindset which I have described as “We love immigrants, just not as many.”

And, as in the case in Germany and the UK, the nursing beds of anti-immigration politics are in regions with little past history of immigration, with a surge of immigration occurring recently, bringing in persons who are overly of difference cultures i.s. emerging world.

People not like us

The emerging country imprint of immigration is more visibly pronounced in Europe, which has absorbed migration not just within the EU but from Eastern European countries, and also migration from the Middle East and Africa.

On contrast, the major sources of migration into the U.S. since 1990 has been, first, from Latin America, which for generations shared a transnational workforce mainly in farming, and in the past 15 years from Asia, which exhibits an approved profile of hard work and commitment to education. The U.S. has been absorbing immigrants for centuries.  This Asian wave, as well, has a visible layer of elites that overtly contribute to society – Asian doctors and IT professionals. This is unlike migrating elites in the U.K., especially Russians, who remain removed from overt contribution to society (the Mayfair set).

Proxies for citizen power

Trump’s efforts to create an illusion of non-citizen voting is based on a clever observation.Immigrant formal voting power is very limited by law. This does not take into account that government policies which support migrant populations may appear to, in effect, grant immigrants rights associated with being voting citizens – such as housing.  A core issue for anti-immigrants, not often well articulated in an elegant way a la The Atlantic or NY Times, is that citizen sovereignty is eroding – appears to be in concrete ways. (Go here for a summary of a book on this.)

Why anti-immigration politics in the U.S. has peaked

In contrast to Germany and the UK, we are seeing the end of the rise of anti-immigration politics in the U.S. This is due primarily to the much greater experience in successful integration of immigrants into an already multi-racial, multi-cultural society. There is poorly known success of greater economic mobility among immigrants. Also, Americans have far less emotional attachments to historical icons from the past than do many Europeans.

The November elections may show the political failure of extreme politicization of anti-immigration. Congresswoman Salazar’s problem is a canary in the mine.  Proposition 187, curtailing access to public services by unauthorized persons, passed overwhelming in 1994 in California  — part of Republican Pete Wilson’s gubernatorial campaign.  The state supreme court declared it unconstitutional. California had supported Republican presidential candidates in most elections 1952-1988. Republicans remained competitive in the early 1990s. After Proposition 187, however, Democrats dominated presidential elections, the legislature and statewide offices. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s victories in the unusual 2003 recall and in 2006 were the principal exceptions.

 

 

 

 

 

Migration flows in /out of the United States

These flows have been very difficult to track.  I have not attempted my own estimate. Here is a Brookings Institution paper issued in January 2026. The graphic of recent flows is easy to read. Since this report, some estimates have been made of total and net migration, but due to recent TPS terminations and continued ICE enforcement escalation any estimate of new migration numbers as of now (Sept 2026) are tentative.

Some persons legally in the U.S. are accounted for as “undocumented.” This is literally not true: hundreds of thousands are in TPS or Humanitarian Parole, known and traceable, but sometimes listed as undocumented.

One of the unknowable facts is how may person who were unauthorized or about to be unauthorized (such as TPS beneficiaries) have left the United States without any official notification. There has always been a regular churn every year. Brookings estimates that about 200,000 left in 2025 above an expected normal churn, and that this number may be a half million in 2026.

 

Third country deportations

A Washington Post-participated investigation report says that the Trump administration pledged at least $410 million to secure third-country deportation arrangements with 31 countries, mostly in Africa and Latin America. A State Department Office of Remigration, led by Christian Ehrhardt, runs the program. More than 25,000 people have been sent to at least 28 third countries.  Nominally the program is for deportations of persons whose home countries refuse to accept. Most of the deportations have been to Latin American countries, many Mexico.  Costa Rica accepted migrants from China, Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan.

The African countries which are or are currently negotiating to accept deportations are Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Togo, Guinea-Bissau, and Gabon. One instance: Liberia received a deportation flight, but the six migrants refused to leave the aircraft and were rerouted to Equatorial Guinea.

The reporting team assembled the 25,000 figure from estimates, including few specific data sources (for instance, Human Rights Watch counted 12,977 third-country nationals sent to Mexico between January 2025 and March 2026).

The article mentions without going into much depth of detail how third party deportations to Africa are designed to frighten unauthorized persons into their self-deporting to their home country. The Abrego Garcia case (covered in other posts): His lawyers allege that prosecutors offered him a guilty plea followed by deportation to comparatively safer, Spanish-speaking Costa Rica, while threatening deportation to Uganda if he refused.

How the story was sourced.” The Washington Post writes it is part of a project involving  “72 journalists, 26 news organizations, 15 countries: a global investigation into the Trump administration’s secret deals to expel people worldwide.”

The Migration Policy Institute in January 2026 published a study of “externalization,” which puts the administration’s third-party deportation policy in global context. Europe and Australia have externalization policies as well was the U.S. they include:

Preventing migrants from reaching destination countries, for example, EU cooperation with Libya and Tunisia and U.S. cooperation with Mexico.

Return hubs. Rejected asylum seekers are transferred to facilities in third countries while authorities arrange return, settlement or further movement. The EU authorized this approach in 2026.

External legal-pathway screening. The Biden administration’s Safe Mobility Offices in Latin America was this approach –killed by the Trump administration.

Three things about the Hispanic vote

First, Hispanic political polling has reverted towards the pre-Trump era, but perhaps not completely. Here is my timeline of Hispanic national voting starting in 2016. Prior to Trump, 25%-30% of Hispanics voted Republican. In the 2024 election, close to 50% voted for Trump. At this time (mid September) about 30%-35% approve of Trump. Here is Salazar’s statement on September 17 plus links to her immigration reform Dignity Act, which is going nowhere, while an indication of how Republican frames normalization of unauthorized status.

Second, Hispanic Republican congress persons are experiencing whiplash, best seen with Congresswoman Salazar. She has reverted to accusing the administration of betraying Hispanics. Here is a profile on how Salazar in 2025 came out to support Venezuelans on TPS. She is the most visibly active of Hispanic Republican congresspersons in questioning the administration, if not outright defying it.

Third, the number of eligible Hispanic voters is inexorably rising but their voting proclivity is less, thereby blunting their impact in elections.

Between 2020 and 2024, The number of eligible Hispanic voters, which were 32 million or 13.5% of all eligible voters, rose to 36 million.  This year, 2029, eligible Hispanic voters are 39 million or 16% of all eligible voters. All the increase in eligible voters have been non-white (Hispanic, Black and Asian).  Eligible white voters remain about the same as in 2020. (Go here.) The white share of eligible voters declined from about 82% in 2000 to about 62% in 2026. But since whites turn out to vote a lot more than other groups, its actual diminishment in electoral impact has not declined as much.

Hispanics, indeed, turn out to vote much less than whites. In 2020, 73% of eligible white voters voted, compared to 53% of eligible Hispanic voters. (Go here.) In 2024, 71% of non-Hispanic white eligible voters voted, compared to 51% of Hispanic voters. (The percentages for Blacks 60% and Asians 57%.)

 

 

 

 

International higher education for 2026-2027

The International Education Exchange in July forecasted, for 2026–27, international enrollment at U.S. colleges to weaken: 63% of institutions forecast a decline, 26% stability and 11% growth, largely because of visa barriers, travel restrictions and competition from other countries. American study abroad is expected to remain resilient: 43% of institutions expect participation to increase, 44% expect stability and 13% anticipate a decline. These are institutional forecasts.

Many students come to U.S. high ed in part due to OPT – Optional Practical Training.  The Trump Administration has shown its hostility to the program, now suggesting that will impose a $100,000 charge. This the courts will likely rule out. It has tightened up the program so far without trying to kill it.

Here is a nice graph showing international student enrollment from 1990 to (forecasted) 2025-2026. It includes OPT engagement.

 

More on the administration’s campaign on illegal voters

This posting follows up with September 14 developments on Trump’s campaign on illegal voters. In sum, the administration is surrepiciously implementing its real plan. Unburdened by evidence of non-voting eligible people on voting rolls of more than a few hundred in a state, the Trump administration continues to work this issue.

Yesterday, in United States Postal Service v California, the Supreme Court 7-2 dealt a death blow to what I call the Postal Service plan for this November, without a majority opinion but with one concurring and two dissenting (Alioto and Thomas) opinions. The apparent rationale is that to apply the plan would at this time impose an intolerable burden on state and local officials. This leaves what I call the Postal Serbice  plan basically viable for 2028.

The administration’s legal argument comes to this: State and local election systems can set their own rules but do not have the authority to set rules for how the Postal Service oversees the delivery of mail – by content, envelop design, address management, etc. the Postal Service has been granted wide discretion. Were there no last-minute controversy, the case (again, United States Postal Service v California) might have swung in favor of the administration.

In my recent post, ”Trump’s real plan to control state and local voting,”  I lay out what I think is the real administration’s strategy, which is to apply its own databases against state voter lists and to reject matches that appear to show a non-citizen on a voter list. I noted the quality control and other issues involved.

Alabama has undertaken to so this voluntarily, resulting in 184 findings out of a population of three million.

On the same day (Sept 14) of the Supreme Court decision, Senator Alex Padill, and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced the receipt of a new whistleblower disclosure they received on September 8. The whistleblower disclosed that over the past month or so DHS and USCIS have been inspecting state voting list directly, using their own staffs and applying undisclosed methods.   This is an effort to apply the administration’s strategy presumably to come up with hair-raising accounts of how a Syrian suicide bomber has voted repeatedly.

DHS launched an “Unlawful Voter Initiative” in August 2026 to look for noncitizens who had registered or voted. It assigned hundreds of employees from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate to the effort. On August 21, they were told to watch a training video lasting about an hour and 45 minutes. By August 25, they were reviewing names supplied by DHS. The stated target was 40 cases per employee per day, or roughly 12 minutes per person, with the rushed review to be completed by September 12.

DHS supplied data suggesting that particular people might be unlawful voters. Some of that data reportedly came from its SAVE immigration-status system (see my prior post.)

Officers then compared federal data about a person’s citizenship and immigration history with state voter records. To retrieve individual records from state websites, they (per the whistleblower) entered identifying details such as birth dates or partial Social Security numbers and, where required, claimed to be the voter or to have the voter’s permission. The whistleblower says those claims were false and may have violated state laws governing access to voter information.

Officers were then instructed to create a record in the federal “TEC” law enforcement database, a shared repository for suspected persons. These records were to be identified as “unlawful voters.”  This despite the often – shown problems in searching for non-voters due to inconsistent, out of date, mistakenly matched records.

In all of this, why to bureaucrats go along with the idee fixe that there are loads of illegal voters? The bureaucratic mentality after years of experience boils down to perfectly applying orders from above.

More on Hispanic home buying

For some years Hispanic households have led the first time purchase of homes. I posted on this in 2021. Here are some current facts, quoting housing industry analysis:

The broader national context highlights this point clearly. While total U.S. owner-households increased by 316,000, this figure masks contrasting trends among different groups. Non-Hispanic white households experienced a decline of 441,000 owner-households, while non-Hispanic Black households saw a reduction of 103,000. These declines were fully offset by the gains among Hispanic households.

In effect, Hispanic buyers were not just contributors—they were the sole drivers of growth. Without their participation, the U.S. would have recorded a net loss of approximately 125,000 homeowners.

The Hispanic population is the youngest major ethnic and racial group in the United States, with a median age of 31.

By adding 441,000 owner-households and driving 92.6% of new household formation, Hispanic buyers have become the backbone of the housing market. Their influence extends beyond numbers, shaping trends, demand patterns, and future expectations.

Source here.

Poll on immigration, Texas turns problematic

In an early August poll, 93% of MAGA people approve of the Trump administration’s immigration policies. 85% of conservatives, 35% of moderates, and 4% of liberals do. Overall, 40% do.

Politico reports that Trump at the convention Sept 9 – 10 will praise the virtual closing of the Mexican border to asylum and other seekers and the continuing construction of a border wall. But “hardline immigration activists [are] already livid over their feeling that the administration hasn’t lived up to its campaign promises….it also is an acknowledgment that the politics of immigration are far thornier for Trump than they were at the 2024 convention when “MASS DEPORTATION NOW” signs filled the room. The change is due, in large part, to the killings in Minneapolis and Maine, third-country removals, and the arrests of thousands of long-term immigrants who have not committed violent crimes.”

“In Texas, Concerns [about deportations] were the central focus of a White House meeting …. between chief of staff Susie Wiles, Speaker Mike Johnson, and a group of Republican lawmakers….The group talked about growing concerns that Hispanic voters are abandoning the Republican Party in droves, as well as the policies driving these losses — immigration and affordability concerns. (Go here).

“Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) was among the lawmakers in attendance….She, alongside South Texas leaders, held two additional meetings….one with Johnson and another with the White House Office of Legislative Affairs, to discuss her proposals for new policies to address worker shortages, including legislation to streamline visa programs and address the need for workers in the agriculture and construction industries.”

In 2024 and 2025, Cruz vocally supported Trump’s immigration policy. She has since become equivocal.  She is one of six Republican Congresspersons with an Hispanic majority population.

March, 2026, ICE detained the Gámez-Cuéllar family, including McAllen High School mariachi students whose asylum case was pending. De La Cruz called the detention “troubling,” contacted the White House, border czar Tom Homan and DHS officials, and helped obtain the release of 18-year-old Antonio Gámez-Cuéllar. She said, “We can have safe communities, and we can also have common-sense enforcement policies.”

 

 

 

 

The AI workforce: still very U.S. dominant

MacroPolo’s Global AI Talent Tracker collects information on the global AI workforce, in particular what it defines as AI researchers.   The trend has been and remains towards migration to the United States, both for education and work. It’s headline: “47%of the world’s top AI researchers were trained in China. 72% of them now work in the United States.”

The composition of US-based AI researchers shifted since 2010. In 2010, 40% of AI researchers at top US institutions were foreign-born. In 2024, it exceeded 65%. The shift is concentrated in machine learning and deep learning.

China is the largest source of AI professionals. Among China-educated AI researchers, 72% now work in the United States. The next largest sources are India (80% US-bound), South Korea (45% US-bound), and Europe (40% US-bound).

Among Chinese researchers,  the share of them who received their undergraduate education in China has risen to 38%.  But only 11% of China-educated researchers now work in China—72% work at institutions in the United States.

American institutions employ 59% of the researchers studied, and much of this workforce was educated abroad. About 80% of US-educated researchers remain in America, compared with 65% in Britain and 20% in India.

Go here for a 2021 posting on the AI workforce.