Author: Peter Rousmaniere

Delusional thinking about immigrants and voting registration fraud

I stay away from much of the news about immigrants and voting but this looney study is too outrageous not to comment on. the Center for Immigration Studies, which does some decent conservative work in the area of immigration policy, and is a good place to go to read arguments critical of liberal immigration policies, fell off the train in a recent study on voter fraud. Actually a former executive director of the CIS wrote the study. He estimates that between 1.8 and 2.7 million illegal immigrants may be registered to vote. Given the scrupulous, under-the-glare-of-headlights approach of voter registrars, the figure is patently ridiculous. CIS previously published a report which associated immigration with climate problems in the United States.
Study calls into question number of non-citizen voters
By John Riley
The Dallas Morning News, October 7, 2008
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/10/study-calls-into-question-numb.html
The former head of a Washington think tank specializing in immigration issues says that voter registration numbers in Texas and elsewhere may be inflated because of the presence of non-citizens on voter rolls.
Below is a news article from the Dallas Morning News of 10/7/08.

Continue reading Delusional thinking about immigrants and voting registration fraud

New analysis of workers comp laws and illegal workers

Here is the headline: “Most States Allow Benefits for Illegal Aliens, but Restrictions Abound”. WorkcompCentral (subscription required) ran an article about a new study done on state policies with regard to allowing illegal workers benefitsThis study is exceptional in value because it surveys not only statutes but many key court decisions. The study was prepared by the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers. Good for them!
The news article:
Only one state – Wyoming – has a statute that directly prohibits illegal aliens from receiving benefits, but court decisions around the country have narrowed the scope of benefits allowed for undocumented workers, according to a report from the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America.
The IIABA report, called “Workers’ Compensation and Illegal Aliens,” shows that 38 states offer at least some type of benefits to illegal aliens. The report, designed as a chart showing each state’s stance on the issue, also notes the various factors that can be considered when the courts hear claims by workers who obtained their jobs using false documents or fake Social Security numbers.

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Federal court upholds Arizona law sanctioning employers for illegal hires.

According to the Migration Policy Institute, Arizona’s employer-sanctions law that went into effect on January 1, 2008, does not preempt federal immigration law or violate federal constitutional protections according to a recent court ruling. I have posted on this law earlier this year.
The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rejected the arguments of various business and civil rights organizations but left open the possibility of a challenge to the law once the statute is enforced.
Under the Arizona law, employers that hire unauthorized immigrants can have their business licenses suspended or revoked. The law also requires them to use E-Verify, a federal database, to determine their employees’ work-authorization status.
No action has been brought against an employer since the law went into effect.
The Ninth Circuit was the first federal appellate court to rule on state employer-sanctions laws in recent years. A similar case is now pending before the Third Circuit Court of Appeals. Depending on the outcome of that appeal, the issue may be headed to the US Supreme Court for resolution.

Raid at House of Raeford plant nabs 330 workers

I have posted before on the work safety and workers compensation problems of this largely immigrant-staffed poultry processing plant chain. On October 7, ICE raided its plant in Greenville, SC, arresting 330 workers. I have pasted below the Associated Press article for today, 10/12, about the aftermath of the raid.
Groups help families of SC poultry raid workers
GREENVILLE, S.C. Greenville-area residents and groups are working to help the families of more than 300 suspected illegal immigrants arrested in a raid at a poultry processing plant last week.
The Greenville News reported Sunday that the Alliance for Collaboration with the Hispanic Community and local residents have met to identify lawyers, counselors, educators and interpreters to help the families. They also are trying to raise money and find people to care for the children of the jailed workers.
Some 330 workers were arrested in a raid at the Columbia Farms plant in Greenville County. In addition, the U.S. Labor Department said the plant is under federal investigation for possible child labor violations following the arrests of suspected illegal immigrants, including six juveniles.
The plant is owned by Raeford, N.C.-based House of Raeford. The company has said it’s cooperating with authorities.
House of Raeford processes chickens and turkeys in eight plants in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana and Michigan.
A regional coordinator for the Catholic Charities of the Piedmont Region, Gabriel Cuervo, said several churches also will help.

Remittances from the United States declining

The Inter-American Development Bank has reported that in real dollar terms, the level of remittances to Latin American countries, which run on average about $300 a month, has declined for the first time since the funds flow was analyzed in 2000. The Bank is estimating the funds flow in 2008 will be 1.7% below 2007 levels when adjusted for inflation.
But the bank also confirms the importance of these remittances. “Notwithstanding this slowdown, the volume of remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean still outstrips all the overseas development aid and foreign direct investment in this region. Remittances are and will continue to be a vital lifeline for millions of households.”
The press release from the Bank:
Economic downturns, inflation hit remittances to Latin America
IDB fund forecasts money transfers made by migrants will decrease in real terms
For the first time this decade, remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to decrease in value due to the combined effects of economic downturns in the United States and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar.
According to an analysis of recent remittance data by the Inter-American Development Bank’s Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF), migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean will send some $67.5 billion to their homelands in 2008, against $66.5 billion in 2007.
However, adjusted for inflation, this year’s total will be worth 1.7% less than the total sent in 2007, marking the first decrease in the value of remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean since the MIF started tracking these flows in the year 2000. Until last year, remittances to the region had grown by double digits every year

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Sharp decline in median income of non-citizen immigrant households

The Pew Hispanic Center reports that the median income of households headed by non-citizen immigrants fell 7.3% between 2006 and 2007. 45% of these households are headed by an illegal immigrant. Given has about half of these illegal workers are estimated ot be pain in full or part in cash. I am not very confident about these figures. However, the collapse of the residential construction market has probably wiped out a lot of relatively high paying jobs, and demand for illegal labor has probably peaked or declined in all other job sectors.
The press release:
WASHINGTON – The median annual income of non-citizen immigrant households fell 7.3% from 2006 to 2007. In contrast, the median annual income of all U.S. households increased 1.3% during the same period. A Pew Hispanic Center report released today analyzes recent trends in the incomes of the nation’s 8.2 million non-citizen immigrant households and identifies who among them experienced the largest losses. About half (45%) of non-citizen immigrant households are headed by an undocumented immigrant.
The decline in the economic fortunes of non-citizen households represents a sharp turnaround from the preceding year. Incomes of non-citizen households in 2006 were 4.1% higher than income levels in 2005. Incomes of all U.S. households, meanwhile, had increased 0.7%.
Overall, the income of non-citizen households has displayed great instability in the past decade, fluctuating much more than the average for all U.S. households. For example, household income for non-citizens increased 9.8% in 2000, the last year of an historic expansion, and fell 4.2% in 2001, the first year of a recession and economic slowdown.
The Center’s estimates show that household incomes have fallen most for non-citizens who are Hispanic; from Mexico, other Latin American countries and the Caribbean; recently arrived; males, either unmarried or with no spouse present; lacking a high school education; and employed in construction, production or service occupations. Those characteristics of non-citizen households experiencing declines in income that are higher than average are also associated with likely undocumented status for the head of household.

Pew Hispanic Center estimates of illegal immigrants, 2008

The Center, whose estimates of the illegal population and illegal workforce I have posted on the past, estimates that as of March 2008 there were 11.9 million illegal immigrants. That is close to the 11.8 million estimate for 2007 put out the other day by the Department of Homeland Security. Back in 2004, the Center estimated that the workforce participation rate of illegal immigrants was 68%m at 7 million. Applying the same percentage today yields an estimate of 8.1 million illegal workers.
The annual inflow of illegal immigrants has declined from the 800,000 level earlier in this decade to 500,000 since 2005. I believe this is the estimate of in-migration, and does not reflect out-migration.
The Center’s past estimates of the entire illegal population was 8.4 million in 2000 and 11.4 million in 2005.
The Executive Summary:
There were 11.9 million unauthorized immigrants living in the United States in March 2008, according to new Pew Hispanic Center estimates. The size of the unauthorized population appears to have declined since 2007, but this finding is inconclusive because of the margin of error in these estimates.
However, it is clear from the estimates that the unauthorized immigrant population grew more slowly in the period from 2005 to 2008 than it did earlier in the decade.
It also is clear that from 2005 to 2008, the inflow of immigrants who are undocumented fell below that of immigrants who are legal permanent residents. That reverses a trend that began a decade ago. The turnaround appears to have occurred in 2007.

Continue reading Pew Hispanic Center estimates of illegal immigrants, 2008

Assessment of economic benefits of migration to Australia

From the Australian Ministry of immigration and Citizenship, a report that the skills shortage in the country is being filled in part by immigration, with a positive economic result:
Friday 22 August 2008
A report by respected economic analyst Access Economics shows that new migrants to Australia deliver hundreds of millions of dollars to the Commonwealth budget and the broader economy every year.
In a speech to the Australian Mines and Metals Association in Perth August 22 of this year, the Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Senator Chris Evans, said that the overall fiscal impact of migration is substantially positive and grows over time in real terms.
In its Migrant Fiscal Impact Model: 2008 Update, Access looked at the costs that migrants impose on health, education, welfare, employment and settlement services compared to the fiscal benefits from taxation and visa charges.
For the 2006-07 migration program, Access estimated a total benefit of $536 million in the first year, then another $856 million in year two, growing steadily over time to reach $1.34 billion by year 20.
‘Applying the same modelling to the 2007-08 migration program, the net fiscal benefit is $610 million in year one, $965 million in year two then growing to $1.5 billion by year 20,’ Senator Evans said.

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Homeland Security estimates of illegal population 2007

The Department of Homeland Security released a study in September 2008 which estimated the size of the illegal population in the U.S. “In summary, an estimated 11.8 million unauthorized immigrants were living in the United States in January 2007 compared to 8.5 million in 2000. Between 2000 and 2007, the unauthorized population increased 3.3 million; the annual average increase during this period was 470,000. Nearly 4.2 million (35 percent) of the total 11.8 million unauthorized residents in 2007 had entered in 2000 or later. An estimated 7.0 million (59 percent) were from Mexico.” This study is consistent with Pew Hispanic Center studies from prior years, which I have posted on.
How the estimate was made:
Two populations are estimated in order to derive the unauthorized population estimates: 1) the total-foreign born population living in the United States on January 1, 2007, and 2) the legally resident population on the same date. The unauthorized population is equal to 1) minus 2). It was assumed that foreign-born residents who had entered the United States prior to 1980 were legally resident since most were eligible for legal permanent resident status.1 Therefore, the starting point for the estimates was January 1, 1980.
Overall trend:
DHS estimates that the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States increased from 8.5 million in January 2000 to 10.5 million in January 2005, 11.3 million in January 20062, and 11.8 million in January 2007 (see Figure 1). The annual average net increase in the unauthorized population during this 7-year period was 470,000
Nearly 4.2 million (35 percent) unauthorized immigrants in 2007 had entered the United States since January 1, 2000 (see Table 1). An estimated 890,000 (8 percent) came to the United States in 2005 or 2006 while 3.3 million (28 percent) came during 2000 to 2004. Forty-five percent came to live in the United States during the 1990s, and 19 percent entered during the 1980s.
The estimated number of unauthorized immigrants as of January 2007 is consistent with other unauthorized population estimates. The Pew Hispanic Center estimated the unauthorized population at 11.1 million in March 2005 and projected it would be 11.5 to
12 million by March 2006 (Passel, 2006).
Geographic source:
An estimated 8.9 million of the total 11.8 million unauthorized
immigrants living in the United States in 2007 were from the North America region, including Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America (see Figure 2). The next leading regions of origin were Asia (1.4 million) and South America (850,000).
The 2000 unauthorized immigrant population was similar in region of origin composition.
Mexico continued to be the leading source of unauthorized immigration to the United States (see Table 3). The estimated unauthorized immigrant population from Mexico increased from 4.7 million in 2000 to 7.0 million in January 2007. The annual
average increase in Mexican unauthorized immigration to the United States was 330,000 during the 2000-2007 period. The next leading source countries for unauthorized immigrants in 2007 were El Salvador (540,000), Guatemala (500,000), the
Philippines (290,000) and China (290,000). The top ten countries of origin represented 82 percent of the unauthorized immigrant population in 2007. Although immigration from Mexico continues to dominate unauthorized population growth, the greatest percentage increases during 2000-2007 were among immigrants from Brazil (89 percent), India
(81 percent), Guatemala (74 percent), and Honduras (70 percent).
Distributions among states, 2007 vs 2000:
State: 2007 illiegal pop, 2000 illegal pop, % of total 2007, % of total 2000, % annual change, ave annual increase
California: 2,840,000, 2,510,000, 24, 30, 13 50,000
Texas 1,710,000, 1,090,000, 14, 13, 57, 90,000
Florida 960,000, 800,000, 8, 9, 20, 20,000
New York 640,000, 540,000, 5, 6, 19, 10,000
Illinois 560,000, 440,000, 5, 5, 29, 20,000
Arizona 530,000, 330,000, 5, 4, 62, 30,000
Georgia 490,000, 220,000, 4, 3, 120, 40,000
New Jersey 470,000, 350,000, 4, 4, 32, 20,000
North Carolina 380,000, 260,000, 3, 3, 45, 20,000
Washington 260,000, 170,000, 2, 2, 53, 10,000
Other states 2,940,000, 1,750,000, 25, 21, 68, 170,000

E-Verify is working better

That’s according to the Center for Immigration Studies. CIS asserts that the accuracy of the system has improved in a new report. I have posted in the past on its error rates.
From CIS:
Moving Forward with E-Verify – Program to Check Legal Status Already 99.5% Accurate
WASHINGTON (September 18, 2008) – The E-Verify program, which allows employers to check the immigration status of new employees, has been steadily improving and is now 99.5 percent accurate, according to a new paper by the Center for Immigration Studies. This voluntary program is already screening more than one in ten new hires nationwide, and as of September 13, 2008, has processed 6.21 million queries.

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