Author: Peter Rousmaniere

A gov’t estimate of the immigrant surge under Biden

Estimating the number of foreign born persons in the United States has become much more complicated. I will post tomorrow an analysis of the difficulties in measurement.  The Congressional Budget Office estimated in July that during the Biden administration the numbers shot up to about 3 million a year, 9 million under Biden, or about 1% of the total population per year.   

This rate of 1% of the total population per year us what Canada has experienced purposefully for some years in its policy to attract talented persons as well as to admiy refugees.

This estimate is much higher than past ones. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas writes that there is “no consensus” as to the number of foreign-born who have entered recently.

The Wall Street Journal, using a study by the, estimates the net growth of foreign-born persons during the Biden administration at nine million persons.  At about 3 million persons per year, that comes to triple the annual volume of pre-Biden years of roughly one million. Green card migration was at or below past trends.  The increase is almost entirely due to undetected unauthorized entries and to  humanitarian programs—asylum, Humanitarian Parole and Temporary protected Status.

The WSJ article notes a change in the educational distribution of Biden are immigration. Prior to 2010, immigrants formed an hour-glass profile of formal educational attainment: many without a high school degree, relatively few with a high school degree, and a good share with an advanced degree. After 2010 the flow of migrants shifted from Latin Americans to more highly educated cohorts, for instance from East Asia and, surprisingly, Nigeria. You show that under Biden the profile went back to the old model.

 

 

 

 

The phenomenal performance of Haitian immigrants

Contrary to the vilification of Haitians by the Republican presidential and vice presidential candidates, Haitian immigrants are a role model. They start from coming from the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere to having a high employment rate and educational profile. These are a role model for assimilation of people from a very poor country.

Roughly 10% of Haitian born persons are now living outside of Haiti, and about half of them are in the United States (go here). Haiti is the poorest of countries in the Central American – Caribbean basin for immigrant labor in the U.S (go here). In 2000 there were 400,000 Haitian-born immigrants in the U.S. This number grew by 200,000 by 2010. the current figure is likely close to 900,000.  Counting for second and third generation Haitian immigrants, there are about 1.1 million persons of Haitian descent today.

Haitians in the U.S. have a relatively low incarceration rate – according to one estimate,  less than a quarter of that of all native-born Americans.

 

Haitian immigrants assimilate better than other immigration groups, evidenced by second and third generation Haitians having a higher educational profile than that of all U.S.-born persons. New immigrants start with low English proficiency and a high poverty rate. It takes several years for a large of recent immigrants to become proficient in English. When they do they have a very high employment rate.

(Note: the high educational status of latter generation Haitians: might the be due to the possibility that early immigrants 1970 – 1990 may have been well educated Haitians who managed to get to the U.S? their offspring may have continued with their patents’ educational pattern.)

Also go here.

Demographic crisis in Cuba

Notes ( from here) on recent emigration from Cuba:

A stunning 10% of Cuba’s population — more than a million people — left the island between 2022 and 2023, the head of the country’s national statistics office said during a National Assembly session Friday, the largest migration wave in Cuban history.

According to the official figures made public for the first time, Cuba’s population went from 11,181,595 on Dec. 31, 2021, to 10,055,968 on December 2023. The emigration of 1,011,269 Cubans was the main factor contributing to a massive fall in Cuba’s population by the end of 2023, when the population stood at a number similar to what it was in 1985, said Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, the head of the National Statistics and Information Office. Other factors were a high number of deaths, 405,512, and a low birth rate, with only 284,892 children born in that period.

Of the million-plus people who left the island between 2022 and 2023, about 800,000 were between the ages of 15 and 59, which, combined with the island’s increasingly older population, would significantly affect the labor force, the cost of social programs and the sustainability of social security.

It appears that the large majority of those leaving have and are attempting to enter into the U.S. through the humanitarian parole program created by the Biden Administration for residents of Cuba and three other countries, two of which – Nicaragua and Venezuela – the U.S. has imposed economic sanctions on.

Food production has collapsed in the country. Alexis Rodríguez Pérez, a senior official at the Ministry of Agriculture, said the country produced 15,200 tons of beef in the first six months of this year. As a comparison, Cuba produced 172,300 tons of beef in 2022, already down 40% from 289,100 in 1989.

 

Boston Globe article “Gov Abbott was right about the border”

Carine Hajjar has written a much needed article on how states like Massachusetts are feeling the effect of the Mexican border crisis. (I posted on this here and here.) Either party has been forthcoming about what is at the core of the border crisis: a system of awarding asylum which is both vitally important for world harmony and yet is unable to work reliably at today’s scale of global migration. The Biden administration has failed to level with the public about this, leaving even its supporters confused and dispirited. I am struck by how Pamala Harris has not been effectively challenged by the media or by Republicans.

The next administration needs to package asylum reform with other immigration changes.  While comprehensive overhaul seems unlikely, compromise over incremental reforms including asylum policy may – must – work.

Hajjar notes that Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have been warning about the burden of migrants crossing the border.

Massachusetts announced limitations to its migrant shelter policies after spending about $1 billion on emergency housing, including offering to pay for travel for eligible families to go to other states.

She writes that the Biden administration’s policies have played a central role in creating this crisis, from rolling back the Remain in Mexico policy to expanding humanitarian parole. [To be sure, the Remain in Mexico policy requires Mexican concurrence.]

Blue state leaders, Hajjar notes, have largely blamed Congress and former President Trump for the crisis, rather than directly criticizing the Biden administration. If Democratic leaders like Governor Healey were to acknowledge the current situation as a “Biden crisis,” it could pave the way for negotiations on border security and comprehensive immigration reform. This I agree with: a limited scope, compromise-arrived at agreement on immigration reform.

Biden has greatly cut back on Mexican border encounters. Here is how,

 

This posting is about the Mexican border, drawing largely upon a thoroughly researched report by WOLA.  If you work through this posting you will get a understanding of how measures undertaken by the Biden administration and some Central American countries are significantly reducing and adding more controls over entering the U.S.

(I want to note that asylum seekers having been showing up in larger numbers at the Canadian border.

Overlapping crackdowns have cut U.S. border encounters. Border crossings have dropped sharply as an immediate result of two overlapping 2024 crackdowns on migration, which have been especially hard on migrants seeking protection. First, since the beginning of the year, the government of Mexico has stepped up aggressive efforts to block migrants, busing tens of thousands of them to the southern part of the country. That caused migration between ports of entry (26 formally named as such) to drop by 50% from December 2023 to January 2024.

Second, in early June, the administration launched a second crackdown: a proclamation and rule refusing asylum to most people who cross the border between ports of entry during busy times. At least for now, the additional measure has cut migration in half again: a 52% drop in Border Patrol apprehensions from May to July 2024.

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) wants to channel all asylum applications through its app. CPB One app, introduced in 2020 but only begun to be used a lot in early 2023. CBP has not adjusted the number of available appointments since June 2023. The border-wide maximum is 1,450 per day.

Texas’s state government crackdown has not reduced or deterred migration. Texas has not experienced a steeper migration decline than Arizona, where the Democratic governor has not pursued similar hard-line measures.

The drop in migration is plateauing. Migrants and smugglers go into a sort of “wait and see” mode as they learn how the new policy is being implemented. After migration “bottoms out,” it begins to recover and rise again, usually after a few months.

More migrants are dying even as migration drops. At Border Patrol ’s El Paso Sector, Border Patrol reported 164 remains recovered in the sector as of August 19, with six very hot weeks remaining in the 2024 fiscal year.

Releases from Border Patrol custody into the U.S. interior have dropped sharply. Due to strict implementation of the Biden administration’s June, 2024, asylum ban on persons crossing between ports of entry, releases from Border Patrol custody have plummeted: 12,110 people received a Notice to Appear (NTA) or parole in July 2024, 94% fewer than last December and the fewest since January 2021. Only 21% of migrants apprehended between ports of entry in July were released, the smallest percentage since January 2021.

Use of Expedited Removal has hit record levels. Nearly half of migrants apprehended between port of entry by Border Patrol in July 2024 were placed in expedited removal proceedings, a rapid process for deporting people without giving them hearings, usually while they are still in custody at the border, and with removal usually within a few days.

Venezuelans, Cubans, and Haitians have turned almost exclusively to CBP One and therefore formal, legal entry, rather than to try to enter between formal ports. That is lmosy likely due to the existence of the Humanitarian Parole program which admits 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans. (Go here for an overview of Biden’s extensive use of Parole.)

The geographic diversity of migration has expanded. Border-wide through April, 11% of migrants apprehended by Border Patrol in fiscal 2024 were from Europe, Asia, or Africa, compared to 9% in FY 2023 and 4% in FY 2022.

Darién Gap migration has dropped. Panama’s new president, José Raúl Mulino, inaugurated on July 1, ordered a few miles of barbed wire laid along some frequently traveled routes through the Darién and, with U.S. financial backing, has now launched a program of deportation flights that appears to aim to operate at a tempo of three or four planes per week. This month, about 400 persons are completing the Darian Gap journey compared to about 2,000 a year ago.

Canada cutting back on immigration

Canada has been accepting permanent immigration at an effective rate of 1% of total population per year, and increased temporary foreign workers at an accelerated level. Here is a summary of a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation report:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a significant reduction in temporary foreign workers (TFWs) to address rising unemployment among immigrants and youth, spurred by a surge in low-wage TFWs post-pandemic. New restrictions will prevent employers in high-unemployment regions from hiring low-wage TFWs, except in critical sectors like agriculture, construction, and healthcare. The government will limit low-wage TFWs to one-year contracts and cap their proportion in any company to 10% of the workforce.

This  would reduce TFW numbers by about 65,000, returning to pre-pandemic levels. The move aims to alleviate pressures on the job and housing markets, with youth and newcomer unemployment rates hitting 13.5% and 11.6%, respectively.

The government is also considering broader immigration adjustments, with a review of permanent resident levels planned for the fall. This reflects growing concerns about the rapid pace of population growth, housing shortages, and economic challenges. The government maintains that any changes will be guided by economic and social needs to ensure Canada’s long-term success.

Parole for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela restarted

The Biden administration’s Humanitarian Parole program for persons from four countries, which had been suspended, is now back in place. This program is basically a way to siphon off persons who would otherwise appear at the Mexican border. The program was created in 2023 when the administration imposed new restrictions on asylum seekers at the Mexican border. It provides for two years’ stay in the U.S.  Persons have to be financially sponsored and pay their own way to the U.S. The program was vulnerable to abuse by parties who were not legimate sponsors. (Go here.)

According to ABC News, DHS said an internal review found some cases of fraud, such as sponsors using fake Social Security numbers, but that the majority of cases it investigated had a reasonable explanation, such as a typo when a sponsor was submitting information online. “Since the inception of the process, a very small number of supporters were found to have fraud or criminal issues warranting referral to law enforcement for investigation and/or appropriate action,” the agency said.

Homeland Security also said it had not found issues in vetting the migrants themselves, saying those who come to the U.S. under the program “have been thoroughly screened and vetted.”

 

 

 

Go here.

A JD Vance projection of replacement, courtesy of the Census Bureau

I’ve posted in the past about the role of immigration in adding to births and to the workforce. Here is a Census Bureau projection which dramatically shows the impact of immigration over the long term on the share of the U.S. population which is U.S. born white.

The Census Bureau in 2023 projected  the American population through 2100. In light of the fact that the current fertility rate of 1.6 – 1.7, and that the Bureau projects population decline starting at about 2080, the impact of immigration is very important.

The projection needs to have an estimate of future immigration levels. The current annual level of permanent immigration (gross increases minus departures of foreign born with permanent status) is estimated by the Census Bureau at 850,000. It made a “high immigration scenario” at 1.6 million persons per year. Democratic proposals for immigration reform do not expressly state levels of immigration, about 1.5 million a year can be reasonably inferred. Below are the projections of key demographic categories from 2022 through 2050 using the high scenario.  These are projected percentages of the entire population. Because they go for a very long time, they in effect take into account second generation immigrants, that is, those born to first generation immigrants.

Note the decline of the U.S. born white (non-Hispanic white) share of the population from 56% to 43% in 2050. It dips below 50% some time before 2040. This decline is in part due to the low percentage of immigrants who are white. The second generation factor is a very important force in the demographics of the country over the long term.

This high growth scenario is highlighted by the immigration restrictivist Center for Immigration Studies here. Perhaps JD Vance has been influenced by these projections.

Changes of share of population through 2050 forUS Born Asian, US born Hispanic, Total foreign born, foreign born Asian, and foreign born Hispanic. Just for the size of the foreign-born population, it grows from 14% to 20% of the total population.

According to the Urban Institute, Between 2020 and 2040, there will be 6.9 million net new homeowners, a 9% increase, of which 4.8 million more will be Hispanic homeowners, 2.7 million more Asian and other homeowners and 1.2 million more Black homeowners, while white homeownership will decline by 1.8 million.

Texas once again searches for non citizens on its voter rolls.

What happened the last time (2019):

In February 2019, Texas Secretary of State David Whitley, using the standard method of matching state databases, assigned 95,000 voters for citizenship checks and set them up for possible criminal investigation.(Go here and here.) That campaign was terminated and resulted in a settlement of three federal lawsuits. Whitley resigned his job due to the fallout.

Texas had at the time about 17 million registered voters. Following the settlement, some counties undertook a more careful protocol to identify non-citizens on voting lists. They found several hundred. One person was a staff member of the El Paso County election staff and had had a naturalization party at the office years before.

On August 21 this month, Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to the office’s press release, “has opened an investigation into reports [sic] that organizations operating in Texas may be unlawfully registering noncitizens to vote in violation of state and federal law.” Paxton said that his investigation involved undercover agents and raids on homes of individuals.

The League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) has asked the Department of Justice to investigate Paxton’s raids (go here.) One of the individuals whose home was raided at 6 AM on August 20 was the 87 year old LULAC member Lydia Martinez, who stood outside her home in her nightgown while a half dozen law enforcement personnel went through her house and seized her electronic devices.

What are the “reports”?  On August 18, Fox News columnist Maria Bartiromo (who was involved in the conspiracy thinking re: Dominion in 2021), posted this on X: “ Friend of mine’s wife had to take her 16 yr old son to the DMV this week for a new license. Couldn’t get an online appointment(all full) so went in person and had to go to 3 DMV’s to get something done. First DMV was in Weatherford. Had a massive line of immigrants getting licenses and had a tent and table outside the front door of the DMV registering them to vote! Second one was in Fort Worth with same lines and same Dems out front. Third one was in North Fort Worth had no lines but had same voter registration drive. (Go here.)

Within 24 hours, Brady Gray, chair of the Republican Party of Parker County (in which Weatherford is located) posted on X the results of his own investigation, which included conversations with pertinent local officials, and completely refuted the allegation, point by point. (Go here.)

A defamatory assault on the integrity of local elections departments, such as Paxton has done, involves attacking one of the nerdiest, most self-disciplined and most exacting cohorts of government employees.

On August 28, Governor Greg Abbott announced that since 2021 the state has found on voter rolls 6,500 non-citizens, of whom 1,930 non-citizens had a voting history.  6.500 is of the current total of 18 million registered voters, three one hundredths of one percent, or one per 2800 registered voters. It is very unlikely that most of these 6,500 are in fact non-citizens, if the state’s earlier misadventure and that of other states are a guide.

 

Owen Cass on immigration

 

Owen Cass in 2020 founded American Compass, a conservative think tank which describes itself as the conservative labor movement. Cass has been articulating a coherent strategy for immigration; neither the Democratic nor Republican Party have.

In a 2023 essay, “Jobs Americans would do,”, he begins be citing labor shortages

California’s Central Valley, and in Californian for computer programmers.  He notes that over the past five decades, productivity and corporate profits have surged, while wages for most workers have stagnated. Employers will only raise wages when they cannot hire at current rates, emphasizing the need for policies that limit labor supply to drive wage growth. He proposes a reform in immigration policy, particularly by reducing the influx of low-wage workers, which currently dilutes labor market pressures, and also by reducing or eliminating temporary worker permits for both low and high skilled workers.  This he say will lead to better wages and conditions for domestic workers. He proposed a high-wage immigration system. He says these changes will  improve the labor market with better wages and working conditions, viewing them as central to a healthy economy.

He concludes, “The American economy has not failed in recent decades with respect to the material standard of living. The failure has been the creation of insecure jobs that do not meet workers’ needs, a shift in the economy-wide distribution of income that has left working families struggling, and a decay in social solidarity as the economy’s winners declare themselves most valuable and the losers expendable. Only the power for workers that comes from being needed will reverse those trends.”