Year: 2026

The source of top AI talent today

Nationality at birth of the top 25-30 global AI experts:  30–35% were born in the United States. Europe, roughly 25–30%; East Asia,  20–25%; South Asia, 5–10%. largely from India; rest of the world, 5–10%. About 60% of the top 25-20 reside in the U.S. today.

Top executives of major AI firms headquartered in the United States: 60–70% born in the United States. 15–20% in Europe, 5–10% in East Asia, 5% in South Asia. 5–10% elsewhere.

Of the top universities regarded as global leaders in AI, most are in the U.S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford University, Carnegie Mellon University, University of California, Berkeley, and University of Washington. Outside the United States, major centers include University of Toronto in Canada, University of Oxford and University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, and Tsinghua University in China.

One way U.S. competes to attract foreign students

The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program allows international students to work temporarily in jobs related to their field of study as part of their training.  If the  U.S. wants to continue to attract STEM students from abroad, OPT must be kept viable. It is part of America’s dominance over international STEM education — which is slipping away due to competition by Chinese and English language higher ed elsewhere.

Created by regulation, participation rose from 25,000 in 2007 to 300,000 by 2024–2025. These are the numbers of international students actively enrolled in OPT.

It often functions as a bridge into long-term immigration. During OPT, graduates can work for U.S. employers and seek sponsorship for visas such as the H-1B, which in turn may lead to a green card. Half of H-1B visa holders with U.S. degrees previously participated in OPT.

.The impact on American college enrollment is substantial. About 56% of graduates from 2006–2022 participated in OPT, with much higher participation among advanced degree holders and STEM graduates. 68% of STEM graduates and more than two-thirds of PhD and master’s graduates entered the program.

Here is a summary of the program as presented on the website of Babson College.

The rest of the world, notably by English speaking countries, has grown its international student population very fast. Canada had in 2015 about 350,000 international students. Today it has about one million international students.  Meanwhile, international student enrollment in the U.S. marginally increased from one million to about 1.2 million.  (Go here.)

The program should be viewed in the context of the high presence of international students on campus in STEM education.. Over half of graduate students in engineering and computer science in U.S. universities are international. 72% of full-time graduate students in computer and Information sciences are foreign-born. Until recently the U.S. dominated global higher education in some STEM subjects

 

 

Continued labor shortage in seasonal farm workers

The Department of Labor published in the October 2, 2025 Federal Register its analysis and plans for the H-2A program – seasonal farm labor, for the most part. Farms typically hire workers, almost all from Mexico, for 5 – 8 months, with the season starting in earnest in April. The program attracts workers because they are paid about 10 times what they would get locally in Mexico.

DOL said that farms face persistent labor shortages, especially in labor-intensive, seasonal crops such as fruits, vegetables, and nursery production. It estimates that unauthorized labor  at 42% of crop workers. Trump wants to throw all of them out.

The DOL plan of October calls for more H-2A workers – but not enough. In 2010, about 75,000 workers came in under H-2A; in 2025, about 400,000. DOL predicts about 550,000 in 2030. The math is bad for farmers, even with DOL’s plans for more H-2A workers. That is because an expected rise in H-2A workers (which DOL says requires reforms in the program) is per DOL’s own figures going to make up for only half the unauthorized workers to be removed. The rest, presumably, will come from legal Hispanic workers who are experienced in this work. This suggests a tacit deal that ICE lay off mass deportation of farm workers.

In 2015, the minimum H-2A wage was roughly $11–12 per hour. In 2025 the weighted national average wage had risen $17–$18 per hour, with California near $20. The Dept of Labor expects H-2A wages to increase to $22–$24 per hour by 2030. The average median wage across all occupations in the Bakersfield-Delano labor market was probably about $18 in 2015 and about $25 in 2025.  The bulk of jobs held by Americans are year-round and indoors. Median wages in Mexican areas where H-2A workers come from are about $2 an hour.

Farms which use H-2A must provide free housing. Free housing costs the farm an effective cost of about $5 an hour. DOL plans to create a tiered system for wages. That will not eliminate the very high deferential. It will also create a larger gap between H-2A wages and prevailing wages of Americans in the same market area.

Refugees settlement now aimed almost exclusively for white South Africans

The Trump administration in 2025 set a limit of 7,500 for refugees for FY 2026, but it then set a monthly target of 4,500 white South Africkaner refugees — that is, a an annual target of about 50,000. Go here. Also, here is the executive order. Settlement in the U.S. appears to be done independently of establishee refugee settlement infrastructure, which the administration, as it attempted in the first Trump administration, seeks to destroy.

Criminal vs non criminal arrests

It has been well known that arrests by ICE of unauthorized persons have been trending towards persons without a criminal record. This report provides clear evidence of how that trend evolved in 2025. The report looks at arrests through October 2025.

In October, 2024, an average of 200 persons a day were taken by ICE from local jails or other lock ups, versus about 75 from worksites and other locations.  By October 2025, the average daily arrest rate for each hovered around 550.

Throughout, DHS was saying that it was detaining the “worst of the worst.” It could loosely back that up with the arrests from jails and from the probably extremely low numbers of persons with a lurid criminal background that ICE arrested on the streets.

However, the trends documented in this report indicate that to boost arrests from the 1,000 person a day level to much higher requires either more states to agree to allow coordination between local jails and ICE, or to arrest a lot more outside of jails. This is not news.

A question: does this history in any way imply in any reasonable way that unauthorized persons are relatively more criminal than authorized persons?  One can firmly say no – but there is one characteristic that should be recognized.  I do not have the figures before me now, but I believe that, at least perhaps 15 years ago, the unauthorized populations contained relatively more poor, young men – whose run-ins with the law are higher in American society.   The studies showing that the crime rate among unauthorized is lower than among others I trust – but also note that the demographics, at least in the past, might suggest otherwise.

Again, Drivers of global migration

The share of the world’s population living outside one’s native country has grown from  2.3% in 1970 to 3.7% today.   The number of persons born in India who live in the U.S. from from 51,000 in 1970 to about 3 million today. Both trends show the impact of access to and costs of transportation, communications, finance and higher education.  The impact of a global educated cohort on economies and societies is a core aspect of life today.

I addressed this topic in a 2022 posting on seven drivers of migration. Here is more meat on the bone, with India as a case study.

Transportation. Containerization reduced the cost of shipping goods by as much as 90% percent over several decades, linking labor markets more tightly to global demand and in the way creating a mobile skilled manufacturing work and entrepreneurial force.  A round-trip intercontinental airplane ticket that once represented a prohibitive share of income became affordable even for middle-income households in emerging economies. Migration no longer required a permanent break. It could be a real option, be repeated, and allow for circular / multi-country residence and work.

Financial infrastructure. The creation of SWIFT standardized cross-border bank transfers. What once required days and paper documentation moved to electronic confirmation. Digital payment platforms and mobile wallets are now reducing remittances from 6% and some hours or days to well under 1% and instant transfer.

Communication. In 1970, a brief international phone call was expensive and an effort. Today,  voice and video calls across continents are effectively free at the margin, carried over internet networks. Information about jobs, wages, and conditions now circulates instantly.

Meanwhile, higher education expanded rapidly across Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. University enrollment multiplied several times over, producing large cohorts of engineers, nurses, technicians, and managers. With portable skills and lower mobility costs, many participate in migration patterns that are increasingly circular rather than permanent, linking origin and destination economies in sustained exchange.

Where this shows up most dramatically

Indians in the U.S. For the United States, decennial census tabulations show the India-born population rising from 51,000 (1970) to 206,087 (1980) to 450,406 (1990) to 1,022,552 (2000). It is about 3 million today. Mostly STEM + other high-skill knowledge work: computer/IT, engineering, and other science/technical roles, with a significant presence in health professions and management/business.  My recent posts have shown how entrepreneurial investment in India drew from American experience. The same can be said for Indians in Canada.

Warrantless and Preemptive arrests

In a court case before an Alabama district court, attorneys say DHS has adopted a three-pronged policy of aggressive arrest and detention. The case involves Leonardo Garcia Venegas, a U.S. citizen construction worker of Mexican descent, twice detained during immigration raids at private, non-public construction sites despite presenting an Alabama REAL ID:

The brief alleges DHS has adopted a Warrantless Entry Policy permitting officers to enter fenced, posted construction sites and partially built homes without judicial warrants, treating them as “open areas.” It also alleges a Preemptive Detention Policy under which officers detain Latino construction workers based on appearance and occupation alone, without individualized suspicion, effectively replacing targeted investigation with mass, location-based sweeps. Finally, it alleges a Continued Detention Policy authorizing officers to maintain custody even after individuals present documentation establishing lawful presence, including DHS-certified REAL IDs.

They assert there are  agency-wide directives reflecting a reinterpretation of DHS authority, constitute final agency action, and violate the Fourth Amendment, federal statutes, and binding regulations. The plaintiffs do not have smoking gun internal documents. They rely on public DHS press releases and memoranda, including references to a Lyons Memo authorizing use of administrative warrants, public statements, ICE training materials cited in other litigation, news reports, and repeated on-the-ground enforcement conduct, including the plaintiff’s own detentions.

Population change 2025 – 2050

2050 Change % Change
India ~1,670M +206M 14%
Nigeria 401M 163M 69%
U.S. ~394M +47M 14%
Canada ~50M +10M 25%
UK ~74M +6M 9%
Brazil ~216M +3M 1%
EU (27) ~441M −7M −2%
Germany ~80M −4M −5%
Russia ~133M −11M −8%
China ~1,320M −84M −6%
Japan ~103M −20M −16%

Looking back at the immigration raid in Chicago

Operation Midway Blitz was a highly publicized immigration enforcement campaign launched by ICE and other federal agencies in the Chicago area. It began in September 6-9, 2025, deploying hundreds of ICE agents plus National Guard, ostensibly targeting undocumented immigrants with criminal records.  In retrospect, this campaign was intended as the first of a large number to be waged against blue cities, with an ill-trained and led force, with the primary intent to create a war zone atmosphere which would work to the administration’s benefit. This kind of campaign was effectively ended by Minneapolis.

Henceforth, for DHS to meet its goal of well over 1,000 arrests a day it will have to arrest persons at work or in their homes — which will provoke perhaps a broader negative response from the public and courts.

DHS’ press release said, “This ICE operation will target the criminal illegal aliens who flocked to Chicago and Illinois because they knew Governor Pritzker and his sanctuary policies would protect them and allow them to roam free on American streets.”

DHS sought to invoke shock and awe, in an approach that was later discredited in its Minneapolis campaign. The first full day of the campaign,  a TV station reported “On an anxiety-filled day for the city, there were sporadic reports of arrests in Chicago’s Latino community as hundreds of federal agents move in — and many residents hunker down.”

By mid-November, DHS claimed nearly many arrests across six Midwestern states. This figure was not significantly higher than what might have happened had DHS not undertaken such a publicly provocative campaign. DHS’ figures have been suspect from early in the Trump administration. Out of 1,852 people arrested in the Chicago area before October 7, as many as 1,100 had already been deported or had taken voluntary departure. (Go here.)

Protests grew at the Broadview ICE facility. Federal agents rdeployed tear gas, pepper balls, and flashbang grenades. Silverio Villegas-Gonzalez was fatally shot by ICE. Marimar Martinez was shot five times. Mayor Brandon Johnson and Governor J.B. Pritzker actively opposed the operation, with Johnson signing an executive order barring federal use of city property for immigration enforcement.

The operation wound down by mid-November 2025. Border Patrol Commander Bovino and approximately 150 agents departed for Charlotte, North Carolina. The National Guard withdrew from Chicago on December 31, 2025, after being stationed for only one day in October before courts blocked further deployment.

Antecedents to Minneapolis

Arising out of the Chicago campaign were ICE interpretations of the law which gave its personnel wide discretion on whom to arrest.  A “flight risk” was not just the risk of a person upon encounter to flee, but any risk that the person might not show up at a future hearing. In November a federal judge in Chicago ordered the release of 600 persons whom he said had been illegally detained by warrantless arrests. This issue of arrest discretion has yet to be definitively addressed by the courts.   (Go here, here, here and here).

However, DHS credibility was challenged. Judge Sara Ellis called Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino’s testimony “not credible,” accusing him of “outright lying” about incidents.

The single most controversial case was that of Marimor Martinez.  In October 2025, citizen Martinez was shot five times by a CBP agent. DHS claimed she had used her car as a weapon and labeled her a “domestic terrorist,” leading to federal assault and attempted‑murder charges. Later‑released video, diagrams, and texts undermined agents’ accounts, showing that they rammed her car and then opened fire. Prosecutors dismissed all charges with prejudice.  (Go here)

The Hispanic swing vote and the Nov 2026 elections

Latino voters are poised to play a pivotal role in determining control of Congress in 2026.

Redistricting strategies built on static Latino support are now highly vulnerable. Small shifts in Latino voter behavior can upend partisan control. I track here the Hispanic vote through many elections, and note that the 2024 Hispanic vote for Trump was about 10 points higher.  This is in the process of reversing.

The American Business Immigration Coalition gets into seat-specific analysis for the  Hispanic vote in November 2026. It analyzed eight Texas and Florida seats

In Texas, the report says looks at five newly drawn congressional districts where eligible Hispanic voters is high enough to affect outcomes. Under a scenario of a 10% more toward Democratic candidate than the 2024 vote, at least one formerly Republican-leaning seat would become competitive. With a somewhat larger 15% shift, two Republican-held districts, particularly the open seats in South and South-Central Texas, would move Democratic. In sum, a reasonable estimate is that 1 to 2 Republican seats could shift Democratic.

The news from South Texas is that disruption to workforces and households from immigrant law enforcement is turning the area away from Republicans.

In Florida, two of three Miami area districts could move into Democratic-leaning territory even with a 10% Hispanic swing, and the third becomes competitive. With a stronger 15% swing, all three districts trend Democratic. In sum, a plausible estimate is that 2 Republican seats would flip to Democratic control.

Caution: the Hispanic voting deficit

The number of eligible Hispanic voters has been increasing by about 3% a year. The white vote has been declining. But Hispanics are poor in registering to vote: only 40% of eligible Hispanic voters get around to register and vote, compared with 55% for whites. Much of this can be explained by whites being older and with more formal education, factors associated with higher voting rates.