Anti-immigration political movements arise out of perceptions of lost control, cultural change and unequal treatment. Anti-immigration politics is surging in Germany, is strong in the UK – and is peaking in the U.S. despite Trump’s efforts.
A snapshot of Germany, the United Kingdom and the U.S.:
Germany: Alternative für Deutschland (AfD): 201% of seats in the Bundestag (Feb 2025 elections), success in Saxony-Anhalt 9/6/26 – about 44%, in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania 9/20/26 – 38% of vote vs. 17% in 2021. In Berlin, 16%.
United Kingdom: the political party situation is less clear because of the controversial dynamics of the Reform Party’s leadership. In the past two weeks landings of boats conveying potential asylum applicants have been interrupted in highly visible forms of protest. Per YouGov in August, 69% think immigration over the last decade has been too high, and the share saying migration has been “mostly bad for the UK” went from 10 points since 2016 to 43%.
United States: Over the past 25 or so years, the Dem and Rep parties gradually and then quickly homogenized their leadership into inclusive (Dem) and restrictionist (Rep) positions. However, at the electoral / voting level, American politics has remained internally confused, captured in a mindset which I have described as “We love immigrants, just not as many.”
And, as in the case in Germany and the UK, the nursing beds of anti-immigration politics are in regions with little past history of immigration, with a surge of immigration occurring recently, bringing in persons who are overly of difference cultures i.s. emerging world.
People not like us
The emerging country imprint of immigration is more visibly pronounced in Europe, which has absorbed migration not just within the EU but from Eastern European countries, and also migration from the Middle East and Africa.
On contrast, the major sources of migration into the U.S. since 1990 has been, first, from Latin America, which for generations shared a transnational workforce mainly in farming, and in the past 15 years from Asia, which exhibits an approved profile of hard work and commitment to education. The U.S. has been absorbing immigrants for centuries. This Asian wave, as well, has a visible layer of elites that overtly contribute to society – Asian doctors and IT professionals. This is unlike migrating elites in the U.K., especially Russians, who remain removed from overt contribution to society (the Mayfair set).
Proxies for citizen power
Trump’s efforts to create an illusion of non-citizen voting is based on a clever observation.Immigrant formal voting power is very limited by law. This does not take into account that government policies which support migrant populations may appear to, in effect, grant immigrants rights associated with being voting citizens – such as housing. A core issue for anti-immigrants, not often well articulated in an elegant way a la The Atlantic or NY Times, is that citizen sovereignty is eroding – appears to be in concrete ways. (Go here for a summary of a book on this.)
Why anti-immigration politics in the U.S. has peaked
In contrast to Germany and the UK, we are seeing the end of the rise of anti-immigration politics in the U.S. This is due primarily to the much greater experience in successful integration of immigrants into an already multi-racial, multi-cultural society. There is poorly known success of greater economic mobility among immigrants. Also, Americans have far less emotional attachments to historical icons from the past than do many Europeans.
The November elections may show the political failure of extreme politicization of anti-immigration. Congresswoman Salazar’s problem is a canary in the mine. Proposition 187, curtailing access to public services by unauthorized persons, passed overwhelming in 1994 in California — part of Republican Pete Wilson’s gubernatorial campaign. The state supreme court declared it unconstitutional. California had supported Republican presidential candidates in most elections 1952-1988. Republicans remained competitive in the early 1990s. After Proposition 187, however, Democrats dominated presidential elections, the legislature and statewide offices. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s victories in the unusual 2003 recall and in 2006 were the principal exceptions.