Besides the Brookings study on employment I wrote about yesterday, another study published in May 2026 estimates that ICE enforcement reduced economic activity by 2.7% and spending by 6.2% in 2025.  The author focused on high ICE enforcement cities. He used data provided by SafeGraph, a commercial data company that aggregates anonymized credit- and debit-card transaction records. Retail outlets such as restaurants, stores, pharmacies and gas stations were covered.

The time period measured was Feb 2025 through Feb 2026 for foot traffic and Feb 2025 through Dec 2026 for spending.

The effects were strongest geographically near raid locations and did not fade over time. They extended beyond immigrant and Hispanic neighborhoods, affecting residents and businesses throughout targeted metropolitan areas. Independent businesses suffered substantially more than national chains, while restaurants, hotels, construction, transportation and personal-care businesses were among the hardest hit.