Latino voters are poised to play a pivotal role in determining control of Congress in 2026.

Redistricting strategies built on static Latino support are now highly vulnerable. Small shifts in Latino voter behavior can upend partisan control. I track here the Hispanic vote through many elections, and note that the 2024 Hispanic vote for Trump was about 10 points higher.  This is in the process of reversing.

The American Business Immigration Coalition gets into seat-specific analysis for the  Hispanic vote in November 2026. It analyzed eight Texas and Florida seats

In Texas, the report says looks at five newly drawn congressional districts where eligible Hispanic voters is high enough to affect outcomes. Under a scenario of a 10% more toward Democratic candidate than the 2024 vote, at least one formerly Republican-leaning seat would become competitive. With a somewhat larger 15% shift, two Republican-held districts, particularly the open seats in South and South-Central Texas, would move Democratic. In sum, a reasonable estimate is that 1 to 2 Republican seats could shift Democratic.

The news from South Texas is that disruption to workforces and households from immigrant law enforcement is turning the area away from Republicans.

In Florida, two of three Miami area districts could move into Democratic-leaning territory even with a 10% Hispanic swing, and the third becomes competitive. With a stronger 15% swing, all three districts trend Democratic. In sum, a plausible estimate is that 2 Republican seats would flip to Democratic control.

Caution: the Hispanic voting deficit

The number of eligible Hispanic voters has been increasing by about 3% a year. The white vote has been declining. But Hispanics are poor in registering to vote: only 40% of eligible Hispanic voters get around to register and vote, compared with 55% for whites. Much of this can be explained by whites being older and with more formal education, factors associated with higher voting rates.