the City of Miami, December 9 2025

If the Hispanic population is going to retreat from supporting President Trump – which was noted in the November elections, Miami (city and metro area) will most likely show up as a bell-weather. It may have in the December 9 election for mayor. (Here I track Hispanic national voting since 2016.)

The residents of the City (70% Hispanic) overwhelmingly elected Eileen Higgins (“La Gringa”) as mayor, the first Democrat and non-Hispanic to win the mayoral race since the 1990s and the first woman ever.  Higgins ran openly as a Democrat, notable in that the Congressional delegation in greater Miami is heavily Republican, and Trump won Miami-Dade County in 2024 with 64% of the Hispanic vote (Harris won the City, barely.) As a mayoral candidate she mostly stayed away from addressing immigration policy for the most part, but said in her victory comments, “We are facing rhetoric from elected officials that is so dehumanizing and cruel, especially against immigrant populations. The residents of Miami were ready to be done with that.” (AP, here)

Greater Miami is about six million in population. the City itself has about 450,000 residents. The Congressional district most worth watching is F27, held by Maria Elvira Salazar, It is about one quarter within the City limits. Salazar  is the most outspoken Republican politician in the country in objecting to the administration’s mass deportation policy.  On December 7, Salazar said, “Freezing asylum, green card, and citizenship processes is not the answer. It punishes hardworking, law-abiding immigrants who followed every step of the legal process. That is unfair, un-American, and it goes against everything this country stands for.” (Go here.) Salazar’s district includes a large number of persons whose origins are in three of the 19 countries barred from entry – Cuba, Haiti and Venezuela.

The City is 70% Hispanic, 14% white, 12% Black.  It is behind El Paso in Hispanic concentration (81%) but with a much larger metropolitan area, the Miami area is much the greater national nexus of Hispanic population and political force. (Greater El Paso has one congressional district while greater Miami has 3 or 5 depending on how to measure the metropolitan area.)

Cuban-origin persons make up roughly half of the City’s Hispanic population – a small share of the 900,000 Cubans in greater Miami. Venezuelans have risen in the past few decades to about 6% of the City’s Hispanic population. Over the past 10-20 years the Cuban presence as declined somewhat due to migration into the suburbs, while Colombians, Dominicans, Nicaraguans, Puerto Ricans, Hondurans have increased.

 

 

 

The National Security Strategy and immigration

Annotated version of the White House’s National Security Strategy of December 5:

The Era of Mass Migration Is Over – Who a country admits into its borders—in what numbers and from where—will inevitably define the future of that nation. Any country that considers itself sovereign has the right and duty to define its future.

[This statement, though tinged with implicit racism (“from where”), sort of aligns with the Jordan Commission’s final report issued in the 1990s: “Properly-regulated immigration and immigrant policy serves the national interest by ensuring the entry of those who will contribute most to our society and helping lawful newcomers adjust to life in the United States. It must give due consideration to shifting economic realities.”]

Throughout history, sovereign nations prohibited uncontrolled migration and granted citizenship only rarely to foreigners, who also had to meet demanding criteria.

[“Only rarely to foreigners” conflicts sharply with most of  American history. Abraham Lincoln, for example, welcomed immigrants from non-English sources.  The statement invites comparison with the extremely restrictive immigration policy 1924 – 1965.]

The West’s experience over the past decades vindicates this enduring wisdom. In countries throughout the world, mass migration has strained domestic resources, increased violence and other crime, weakened social cohesion, distorted labor markets, and undermined national security.

[“Weakened social cohesion” –Polls and research by Robert Putnam show that diversity, such as ethnic, reduces trust and a sense of belonging.]

The era of mass migration must end.

[This is ambiguous—does mass migration mean from unfavored countries, or all migration, or something else? If mass migration means large numbers from Latin America, that era – from the 1990s through the Biden Administration – is over.]

Border security is the primary element of national security. We must protect our country from invasion, not just from unchecked migration but from cross-border threats such as terrorism, drugs, espionage, and human trafficking.

[There is no evidence that immigration has brought terrorism, drugs or espionage. This passage smacks of theatrical hypervigilance associated with a myth of purity of the community of citizens. Madison Grant, in his influential The Passing of the Great Race (1916),  framed immigration as a threat to racial purity: “Race feeling may be called prejudice by those whose careers are cramped by it but it is a natural antipathy which serves to maintain the purity of type.”]

A border controlled by the will of the American people as implemented by their government is fundamental to the survival of the United States as a sovereign republic.

[The border takes on a mythic role as some kind of protective armor.]

Court enforces probable cause, bars ICE pick ’em off the street style

In Escobar Molina v. DHS (December 2), a federal district court enjoined DHS and ICE from conducting warrantless civil immigration arrests — including sweeps and arresting those standing in Home Depot parking lots — in Washington, D.C. that do not comply with the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. § 1357(a)(2). That provision allows a warrantless civil arrest only when an officer has probable cause both that a person is in the U.S. unlawfully and that the person is likely to escape before a warrant can be obtained.

After President Trump’s August 11, 2025 “crime emergency” declaration, federal officers launched mass immigration sweeps. An AP-based analysis in the record showed 943 immigration arrests in D.C. between August 7 and September 9, 2025, more than 40% of all arrests in that period.  Officers in plain clothes and unmarked cars often seized people without warrants, without confirming identity, and without asking anything about escape risk.

The government defended this by claiming that civil immigration arrests could be made on “reasonable suspicion,” that its officers were in practice applying a probable-cause standard anyway, and that the presidential emergency and DHS directives justified rapid, sweeping enforcement.  The court rejected all of this, holding that no internal policy or emergency order can override the explicit probable-cause and escape-risk requirements Congress wrote into the INA.

The actual wording in the INA:

“(a) Any officer or employee of the Service authorized under regulations prescribed by the Attorney General shall have power without warrant—

(2) to arrest any alien in the United States, if he has reason to believe that the alien so arrested is in the United States in violation of any such law or regulation and is likely to escape before a warrant can be obtained for his arrest but the alien arrested shall be taken without unnecessary delay for examination before an officer of the Service having authority to examine aliens as to their right to enter or remain in the United States;”

Numerous court decisions dating back to 1975 have said that “reason to believe” means probable cause.

New immigrants have been more working age than the total population

Persons who received a green card in 2019 were 56% between 18- 44, prime working age, compared to 36% of the total population. New green card awardees 65+ are much fewer – 5.4% vs 18%.  (Go here.) Until 2025, immigrants added about 600,000 new workers a year.

This helps to explain the relatively high share of jobs filled by foreign born persons  — 18.6% –compared to the percentage of residents who are foreign born – 14%.

And this helps to explain why high a high percents of new births are by foreign born mothers – 23% compared to the percentage of residents who are foreign born – 14%.  Immigrants comprise a birthing factory (I have addressed this here).

Suspending applications

Aaron Reichlin Melnick has posted today’s memorandum (12/2/25) from USCIS calling for a suspension of dealing with all asylum applications and all “benefit applications”. The memorandum refers to the June 6 2025 “Presidential Action” which lists 19 counttries of concern. The suspension applies to all 19 countries.

The memoradum does not say that prior approvals are to be reviewed — as President Trump says he wants done. Since Trump is trying the subject the entire foreign-born population to review and possible expulsation, it’s woth spending a moment to parse the law.

“Benefit applications” is a formal term which includes all applications that USCIS adjudicates, including green card and citizenship applications.

As noted a few days ago, immigration law prohibits nationality from using used in specific immigration decisions: “No person shall receive any preference or priority or be discriminated against in the issuance of an immigrant visa because of race, sex, nationality, place of birth, or place of residence.” The prohibition applies only to “immigrant visas” and not to green cards, citizenship and certain other applications. The focus on immigrant visas (family, employment, humanitarian, diversity) appears to be due to the removal in 1965 of nationality quotas. It would appear that special immigrant visas issues to Iraqis and Afghan are covered by the prohibition. Some 175,000 such visas have been issued.

Arrest and deportation from the interior — why so slow

If the White House wants to achieve its goal of one million deportations per year, it has to streamline the currently bogged down system of interior arrests through deportation of non-criminals. Here in a nutshell is why ICE -driven deportations are so low – at an average rate of about 18 per ICE enforcement and deportation staff person (7,700).

The Trump administration inherited an interior arrest and deportation process, run by ICE, which was very bogged down, and the immigration courts, seriously under-staffed.  (Customs and Border Patrol generally cover arrests and deportation within 100 miles of the border and can use expedited removals).

Interior immigration enforcement under the aegis of ICE shrank over the past fifteen years, while the overall deportation machinery shifted to the border. ICE once removed an average of 155,000 people per year from inside the United States during 2009–2016, but that number fell to 81,000 in 2017–2020 and then dropped again to about 38,000 annually from 2021–2024.

The difficulties start with the arrest. Most ICE arrests end up in Section 240 immigration-court proceedings because the vast majority of people taken into custody have been in the United States for more than two years, have ties here, or assert some form of protection claim, which legally bars the government from using expedited removal.

Once someone is placed into the 240 track, they receive the full due-process process: notices, master calendar hearings, evidence submissions, and often an asylum or other relief claim that must be adjudicated by an immigration judge. This pushes them into the enormous immigration-court backlog, which by late 2024 had swollen to roughly 3.6 million cases. As a result, a newly-filed case often waits years before a merits hearing, and the person typically lives in the community during that time unless ICE chooses to detain them, assuming beds are available.

The administration is recruiting judges explicitly to increase deportation. Even when a judge ultimately issues a removal order, carrying it out is slow and often unsuccessful. Today roughly 1.5 million people have outstanding removal orders that have not been executed. ICE must physically locate the person, overcome limited detention capacity, and secure cooperation from the destination country. Many countries delay or refuse travel documents, making deportation impossible in practice. China, Cuba, India, and Venezuela routinely refuse or delay accepting returnees.

 

Go here and here.

Judicial revolt over DHS practice of detaining persons

Kyle Cheney in Politico reports on a nationwide judicial revolt against the Trump administration’s policy mandating detention for nearly all immigrants in deportation proceedings. In July, DHS aggressively expanded the conditions under which persons can be detained for violating immigration laws. Over 700 emergency challenges have entered federal courts, with at least 225 judges in 35 states,  including many Trump appointees,  finding the policy likely unlawful and a breach of due process. Only eight judges have sided with the administration.

Per Cheney, at the core of the legal fight is the administration’s reading of the term “seeking admission.” That phrase used to apply mainly to newly arrived migrants at the border. DHS now claims that millions of long-settled immigrants, even those here for decades with citizen families and pending legal claims for normalization of status, still count as “seeking admission” and can therefore be detained without bond. New class actions and appellate rulings, sought by district courts, may soon determine the policy’s fate.

The expansion of definition was made in an internal July 8 memo the full contents of which are apparently not public. It appears to have said the pretty much all persons who “have not been admitted” (regardless of any knowledge or how arrived, or when) are subject to mandatory detention and can be released only through a formal act of granting parole.

Here is a New Jersey court case involving the expanded definition.

 

How Trump’s  broad nationality-focused attack on immigration has evolved

Trump wants to not only bar persons from certain countries but to remove people from certain countries, even from the entire “third world,” who are legally in the United States.

The White House rhetoric and some technical steps undertaken on November 27 indicate that the administration aims to violate a key provision in law (the Immigration and Naturalization Act) barring nationality-based discrimination Let’s look at Trump’s actions starting in his first administration.

Baseline: how the law reads

“Except as specifically provided in this Act, no person shall… be discriminated against in the issuance of an immigrant visa because of the person’s race, sex, nationality, place of birth, or place of residence.” INA § 202(a)(1)(A) (8 U.S.C. § 1152(a)(1)(A)) Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) of 1952 (The McCarran–Walter Act, as amended in1965).

The 2017 “Muslim ban”

The ban on entry from certain countries was initially issued in January 2017. The Supreme Court affirmed the constitutionality of country-wide bans for entry in 2018. (Go here and here).

Trump’s 2024 campaign rhetoric:  attack in principle on countries

Trump’s nationality-focused approach was evident in his 2024 campaign speeches – using terms such as “poisoning” and animals (found here).

“They’re poisoning the blood of our country. That’s what they’ve done. They poison — mental institutions and prisons all over the world. Not just in South America. Not just the three or four countries that we think about. But all over the world they’re coming into our country — from Africa, from Asia, all over the world. They’re pouring into our country.” — Dec. 16, 2023, New Hampshire rally

“They’re rough people, in many cases from jails, prisons, from mental institutions, insane asylums. You know, insane asylums — that’s ‘Silence of the Lambs’ stuff.” — March 4, 2024, interview with Right Side Broadcasting Network

“The Democrats say, ‘Please don’t call them animals. They’re humans.’ I said, ‘No, they’re not humans, they’re not humans, they’re animals’ … Nancy Pelosi told me that. She said, ‘Please don’t use the word animals when you’re talking about these people.’ I said, ‘I’ll use the word animal because that’s what they are.’” — April 2, 2024, Grand Rapids, Michigan, campaign event.

(Collected by the ACLU here)

Trump’s June 6, 2025  list of countries

On June 6, 2025, Trump singled out 19 countries banning or restricting new entries. : Fully banned (12 countries): Afghanistan; Myanmar (Burma); Chad; Republic of the Congo; Equatorial Guinea; Eritrea; Haiti; Iran; Libya; Somalia; Sudan; Yemen. Partially restricted (7 countries): Burundi; Cuba; Laos; Sierra Leone; Togo; Turkmenistan; Venezuela

The common rationale was that the country government was not trustworthy in dealing with the United States on immigration matters. The halt was not explained in terms of criminals, mis-fits.etc.

November 27/28, 2025: wholesale attack on all migration from third world countries, including cancelling green cards

 Trump on X: “I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions, including those signed by Sleepy Joe Biden’s Autopen, and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country, end all Federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens of our Country, denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization.”

Trump on Truth Social. “I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover,” he wrote on Truth Social…..Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation.” (Go here.)

Joseph Edlow, director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, wrote on social media that he had been directed to conduct “a full scale, rigorous reexamination of every Green Card for every alien from every country of concern.” (press report here.)

November 27, 2025 higher denial rates based on country of origin

USCIS issued instructions to staff adversely take into account the person’s country of origin for any step in the process of entry and stay, green card issuance, etc. It does not affect assessment of an application for citizenship.

President Donald Trump’s Thanksgiving message on Truth Social

A very Happy Thanksgiving to all of our Great American Citizens and patriots who have been so nice in the allowing our Country to be divided, disrupted, carved up, murdered, beaten, mugged, and laughed at, along with certain other foolish countries throughout the world for being politically correct, and just plain STUPID, when it comes to immigration. The official United States foreign population stands at 53 million people (Census), most of which are on welfare, from failed nations, or from prisons, mental institutions, gangs, or drug cartels. They and their children are supported through massive payments from Patriotic American Citizens who, because of their beautiful heart, do not want to openly complain or cause trouble in any way, shape, or form. They put up with what has happened to our Country, but it’s eating them alive to do so. A migrant earning $30,000 a year with a green card can get roughly $50,000 in yearly benefits for their family. The real migrant population is much higher. The refugee burden is the leading cause of social dysfunction in America, something that did not exist after World War II (Failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortage, and large deficits, etc.) As an example, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great state of Minnesota. Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for prey, as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses, hoping against hope that they will be left alone. The seriously retarded Governor of Minnesota Tim Walz does nothing, either through fear, incompetence, or both, while the worst congresswoman in our country. Ihan Omar, always wrapped in her swaddling hijab and who probably came into the US.A. illegally in that you were not allowed to marry your brother, does nothing but hatefully complain about our Country, its constitution, and how “badly” she is treated, one for when her place of origin is a decadent, backward, and crime ridden nation, which is essentially not even a country for lack of government, military, please, schools, etcetera.

[NOTE:  On Thanksgiving Day the death was announced of the National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom, stationed in D.C. and murdered by a former CIA-hired Afghan. Asked if he’ll attend the funeral of Beckstrom, Trump said: “It’s certainly something I can conceive of… I won West Virginia by one of the biggest margins of any president anywhere.”]

Lincoln in 1858, welcoming immigrants

On July 10, 1858, Abraham Lincoln delivered a speech in Chicago as part of the extended Fourth of July celebrations common to that era. He addressed the question of American identity at a time when the nation was grappling with both slavery and unprecedented immigration.  In his speech, Lincoln transformed American nationality from a matter of national ancestry into a matter of creed—that adherence to the principles of the Declaration created a bond more powerful than bloodlines. He reimagined America as a nation bound by shared commitment to universal human equality.

Lincoln spoke in a city that had elected a Know-Nothing mayor just three years earlier and where xenophobic sentiment against Catholic immigrants ran high. Over the past 25 years, a surge of non-English immigration occurred, raising the percentage of all persons born outside the U.S. from about 2% to about 10%, with much of the migration geographically concentrated.

Between 1831 and 1840, immigration more than quadrupled to a total of 599,000, including about 207,000 Irish and about 152,000 Germans. Between 1845 and 1855 alone, 1.5 million people fled Ireland for the U.S. in the wake of the potato famine. In 1845 – 1855, more than a million Germans came to the United States.  By 1850, around 90% of the population was native-born, down from 98% in 1830. These immigrants settled in concentrated patterns across the nation: the Irish congregated in northeastern cities where they landed, particularly Boston, New York, and Philadelphia. Germans, often arriving with more resources and in family groups, spread across the Midwest to cities like Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Milwaukee, and established farms in the Upper Ohio and Mississippi River valleys U.S.

Lincoln offered a revolutionary argument that effectively elevated these recent German and Irish Catholic arrivals to equal status with the English-origin population at the founding of the Republic. He defined Americans not by ethno-nationalism but by sharing a democract creed. His words:

“If they look back through this history to trace their connection with those days by blood, they find they have none, they cannot carry themselves back into that glorious epoch and make themselves feel that they are part of us, but when they look through that old Declaration of Independence they find that those old men say that ‘We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,’ and then they feel that that moral sentiment taught in that day evidences their relation to those men, that it is the father of all moral principle in them, and that they have a right to claim it as though they were blood of the blood, and flesh of the flesh of the men who wrote that Declaration, and so they are. That is the electric cord in that Declaration that links the hearts of patriotic and liberty-loving men together, that will link those patriotic hearts as long as the love of freedom exists in the minds of men throughout the world.”