Early 2026 may turn the country against mass deportation.

Arrests by ICE were in early 2025 predominantly at local jails, Later, arrests shifted toward workplace and street corners.  If ICE moves up its arrest pace beyond what it is now (about 1,000 a day) it must depend more and more on arrests of persons in public places, of persons without an arrest or conviction.

Here are a few figures. Between January and May 20, the average daily arrests through local jails was 328, from public areas 258. They summed to 616 per day on average.

Between May 21 and October 10, the pattern was reversed.  the average daily arrests through local jails 471, from public areas 508. They summed to 979 per day on average. This shift shows up the increasing share of persons in detention without a conviction.

It is reasonable to project that if, say, arrests rise to 2,000 a day – doubling this Fall’s – the great majority of arrests will be public. Perhaps on average per day, from jails 600, from public areas 1,400.

Trump keeps a slight majority in favor of mass deportation on the grounds that ICE is going after criminals – not roofers, personal aides and cooks.

There will be more news and commentary about how ICE is hurting employers and consequently customers. These postings may greatly increase in number and geographic distribution.  The story of criminal aliens will subside.

Here is a comment in a December 4 article about how ICE has come into New Orleans in December:

Immigration sweeps in Chicago created staffing shortages and safety concerns, according to reporting from Block Club Chicago. In Charlotte, it brought widespread fear among restaurant employees and patrons, the Charlotte Observer reported.  “I’m just hoping it’s not as bad as we’re all concerned about. I don’t have high hopes for that, though, based on what we’ve already seen elsewhere,” Gautreau said.

Peggy Noonan put her finger on the public’s pulse in her December 11 column in the Wall Street Journal:

“The president’s border triumph will likely weaken his and MAGA’s political position. He shut down illegal immigration on the southern border, which had been more or less open for decades. But it was anger at illegal immigration that kept his base cleaved to him and allied with each other. Remove the issue that made you, and you can no longer use it to gain votes or maintain unity.

“This is the paradox of politics: Every time you solve a major problem, you’re removing a weapon from your political arsenal.

Immigration remains in the news only because of brutal deportation practices. It isn’t “build the wall” anymore; it’s “Don’t arrest the poor guy working the line in a second job at the chicken-processing plant.” Americans don’t want that guy thrown out. The longer the deportations continue, the more unpopular and damaging to the administration they will become.”