If the Hispanic population is going to retreat from supporting President Trump – which was noted in the November elections, Miami (city and metro area) will most likely show up as a bell-weather. It may have in the December 9 election for mayor. (Here I track Hispanic national voting since 2016.)

The residents of the City (70% Hispanic) overwhelmingly elected Eileen Higgins (“La Gringa”) as mayor, the first Democrat and non-Hispanic to win the mayoral race since the 1990s and the first woman ever.  Higgins ran openly as a Democrat, notable in that the Congressional delegation in greater Miami is heavily Republican, and Trump won Miami-Dade County in 2024 with 64% of the Hispanic vote (Harris won the City, barely.) As a mayoral candidate she mostly stayed away from addressing immigration policy for the most part, but said in her victory comments, “We are facing rhetoric from elected officials that is so dehumanizing and cruel, especially against immigrant populations. The residents of Miami were ready to be done with that.” (AP, here)

Greater Miami is about six million in population. the City itself has about 450,000 residents. The Congressional district most worth watching is F27, held by Maria Elvira Salazar, It is about one quarter within the City limits. Salazar  is the most outspoken Republican politician in the country in objecting to the administration’s mass deportation policy.  On December 7, Salazar said, “Freezing asylum, green card, and citizenship processes is not the answer. It punishes hardworking, law-abiding immigrants who followed every step of the legal process. That is unfair, un-American, and it goes against everything this country stands for.” (Go here.) Salazar’s district includes a large number of persons whose origins are in three of the 19 countries barred from entry – Cuba, Haiti and Venezuela.

The City is 70% Hispanic, 14% white, 12% Black.  It is behind El Paso in Hispanic concentration (81%) but with a much larger metropolitan area, the Miami area is much the greater national nexus of Hispanic population and political force. (Greater El Paso has one congressional district while greater Miami has 3 or 5 depending on how to measure the metropolitan area.)

Cuban-origin persons make up roughly half of the City’s Hispanic population – a small share of the 900,000 Cubans in greater Miami. Venezuelans have risen in the past few decades to about 6% of the City’s Hispanic population. Over the past 10-20 years the Cuban presence as declined somewhat due to migration into the suburbs, while Colombians, Dominicans, Nicaraguans, Puerto Ricans, Hondurans have increased.