The Trump administration wants to  close the door to future refugees, especially from 19 designated (or it may be 30 designated) countries, but the halt is for all.  The administration says it will exercise its powers to review Biden’s awards, thus raising the possibility of tens of  thousands of person already admitted and engaged in jobs will be deported.

In October 2025 the Trump administration formally set a refugee target of 7,500 for FY 2026. “The admissions numbers shall primarily be allocated among Afrikaners from South Africa pursuant to Executive Order 14204, and other victims of illegal or unjust discrimination in their respective homelands.” (Go here, here and here). the fact that we are two months into FY 2026 suggests that some awards-in-process are being ripped up.

The Biden administration awarded refugee status to 233,000 persons.  Over four years it increased the annual awards from below 20,000 to, in its final year, over 100,000, which has been its target. (Go here.) Under Obama roughly 80-90,000 persons were admitted as refugees annually. The Trump administration is not just shutting down the refugee program except for white South Africans, but aiming to deport some or many who entered during the Biden years.

I want to focus on Afghans.

Historically, after an American waged war in the emerging world, the U.S. has admitted on the order of 100,000 persons who had in some way supported the American ware effort (go here). This number is most likely for head of household, thus the number of persons admitted was much higher.  As we see below the Afghan program under Biden was much higher.

Some Afghans had been admitted as refugees before the American evacuation of Afghanistan in 2021.  An accounting of Aghan awards and actual entrance into the U.S. is not precise due to complicated and incomplete reporting.

As of end of 2022

By December 2022, according to the Dept of Homeland Security, somewhat over 100,000 persons had been awarded either humanitarian parole (which does not guarantee permanent admission) or a Special Immigrant Visa that had been crafted for Afghans. (Go here.) It is not clear how many had actually entered the US. This total figure I believe should be viewed with skepticism due to accounting problems.

As of end of 2022, Some 315,000 applications by Afghans were in approval backlog. All had left the country.  This figure as well should be viewed with skepticism.

January 2025 (end of Biden administration)

It appears that about 170,000 applications by head of household had been approved. Assuming average household size of four, that comes close to 700,000 in all, and it is not clear how many had actually entered the U.S. And, may be that 60,000 applications were still being reviewed – that is, for some 250,000 persons.

December 2025

It appears that some 700,000 persons already approved (some perhaps in post-award processing) are subject to review and 250,000 are completely blocked from going forward.