Is ICE driving Hispanics to vote for Democrats? If so, how serious is the loss of Hispanic support for Republicans for the November 2026 elections?  This is the first of several posts about the Hispanic vote.

Trump’s immigration policy has split the electorate between poles. Many Republicans think that Trump has not gone far enough. Democrats – too far. (This is an April 2025 poll.)  I’m looking here at sentiment among Hispanics, interested in how this issue may be contributing to a wave of Hispanics who voted for Trump in November 2025 and are shown to switch to Democratic candidates in this week’s November 4 elections.

Polls taken through mid 2025 consistently show among Hispanics relatively high levels of concern about deportation and criticism of ICE action – but I have not seen any report on if concern about the economy and concern about immigration law enforcement stack up relative to each other in impact on voters. Polls such as this one fairly consistently report that Hispanics are more concerned aout their economic well being than about immigration – especially as immigration is typically characterized as legalization of unauthorized persons. What we don’t know is if a combination of fear and anger may touch visceral emotions and spur Hispanics to vote (their rate of voting is low, that is for a follow up posting) and to vote against Republicans.

Opposition to ICE enforcement

June – July polls by various sources show that 60-70% of Hispanics disapprove of ICE raids and other enforcement measures.  Among Asians and Blacks, adverse reaction is slightly less. But notably among Whites, as many support ICE raids as oppose them.

Fear of deportation

Through the 2000’s and 2010, roughly half of Hispanics said to Pew Research pollsters that they were worried that a family member or some one close to them might be deported.  In March 2025 Pew found that 51% of foreign-born Hispanics and 36% of U.S. born Hispanics were worried. 50% of the 18- 49 year old age group were worried.

In a Pew poll in June 2025, 47% of Hispanic adults, 15% of White adults (non-Hispanics, 26% of Black adults, and 29% of Asian adults were worried.

We take from this that a lot of Hispanics are worried about deportations, including many long time residents. For example, 29% of Hispanics both of whose parents were born here – that is, third generation Hispanic immigrants, are worried.