The Trump administration plans to greatly increase the size of the temporary visa program for farm workers (H-2A) as it aims to completely shut down the large unauthorized workforce. There is a key change planned for the program. Its aim is to reduce the cost to the employer of using visa workers– and to greatly increase the use of seasonal migrant labor. 

In effect, the Trump administration seeks to completely rewrite the migration story of lower skilled workers for advanced countries, which was “We wanted workers but we got humans.” Its slogan: “We don’t want the humans, just the workers.”

The H-2A visa program began in 1952 allowing U.S. farmers to hire foreign workers for temporary or seasonal agricultural jobs when American workers are unavailable. (The program is for seasonal labor, not available for year-round dairy workers.) Usage has grown from 30,000 visas in 2000 to over 300,000 in 2023. The number of visas is uncapped. Roughly a fifth of visa holders for an agency which deploys the workers to farms.

The growth of use has mirrored a relative decline in unauthorized workers. The widely used estimate for unauthorized workers is over 50% of produce farm workers in California. Employers must prove they can’t find domestic hires, provide free housing, transportation, and pay at least the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) to prevent wage depression by using foreign workers this discriminating against U.S. workers.

The Department of Labor just issued an Interim Final Rule to overhaul H-2A wage rules.  The net effect on H-2A workers is to reduce their pay. The Rule does this adjusting the minimum hourly wage by putting a higher value on free housing provided by the employer. Higher housing value (such as $300/month) than in the past causes the minimum wage to do down.  It gives an example: a minimum hourly wage of $17,35 declines to $13.38. The Dept of Labor expects savings for large employers at $5,500 per year, for small employers at $2,200.

Meanwhile, hourly wages of farm workers in California’s Inland Empire have doubled from about $10 an hour in 2020 to about $20 an hour today. The effect of these changes appear to have zero impact on citizens working in farming. It will make the H-2A program more attractive to employers. It will make the H-2A program less attractive to Latin Americans.

Will fewer workers show up? The short answer, based on studies (such as here and here) is no – that the differential in wages for farm workers in, say, Mexico, and the H-2A program is so large that workers will still come.  Expected result: a large increase in the H-2A workforce.  Given as there may over 400,000 unauthorized farm workers in California alone, this change plus ICE enforcement can lead to a doubling of the size of the temporary visa program.

 

Go here for interesting insights about unauthorized farm workers.