Month: August 2025

World population trends, some up some down 2025 – 2045

The demographic future of countries is a sum of four factors: the fertility rate; longevity; the median age (i.e., what share of population still produces babies); and immigration. The U.S. sticks out as depending on relatively high immigration to continue an otherwise unsustainable increase in population.

Between 2025 and 2045, the world’s population will grow from 8.2B to 9.7B, but very unevenly.  Except for Africa, almost all the world’s countries have fertility rates below replacement (2.1).

China’s population will by 2045 decline by 110M, or 8%, after which it will continue to decline sharply.  The EU’s population will decline by 10%.

India’s population, already greater than China’s, will continue to grow, by 16%, then after 2045 will basically flatten out. Its fertility rate is below replacement, but it has a young population (median age 29 vs. China’s 39) which means it will continue to produce babies,

Indonesia will continue to grow, with an above replacement fertility rate.  Nigeria, with a relatively astounding fertility rate of 4.3, will be one of the top five countries in population along with Indonesia in 2100.

The United States will continue grow in population very slightly. Its median age (38) is lower than that of the EU (45) and it will experience relatively high immigration. Without immigration, the U.S. population will be lower in 2045 than in 2025.

Higher ed enrollments are plummeting

According to an Inside Higher Ed article of August 5, higher ed foreign-born student enrollment is declining by 22% compared to last year. In 2024-2025, foreign student enrollment was about 1.2 million. Enrollment for 2025-2026 is forecasted at one million.

Three universities host at least 20,000 foreign born students – Columbia, with 55% foreign born enrollment, New York University, with 44% enrollment, and Northeastern with 58% enrollment.

In 2000 total foreign-born enrollment was 550,000; In 2010, 690,000. This indicates how in the 2010s some universities built large enrollments of foreign-born students into their academic and financial plans.

Chinese and Western urban growth: the role of migration

Between 1980 and 2020, China’s urban population grew from 190 million to 900 million, almost entirely due to internal migration from rural areas. The internal migration of 300 million persons was the largest migration wave in history.  At the same time, the number of foreign-born persons was miniscule. Shanghai in 1980 had 11 million population and virtually no foreign born. By 2020 its population doubled to 22 million, but in 2020 the foreign-born population was  less than 100,000.

This pattern is completely opposite that of major American cities. Take the forty years between 1870 and 1910. In 1870, New York City’s population was about 900,000 of which 45% were foreign born. By 1910, its population had grown five times to 4.7 million, its foreign born population share remained very high – 41%.

There was a common thread: in both cases, in-migration was by low income persons who formed the basis of a rapidly growing workforce. Large-scale economic growth occurs when an important source of relatively low cost resources is becomes available. In both instances this was migrating workers.

 

The foreign worker share in the U.S. exceeds that of Europe

The United States is much more dependent on foreign-born workers than are the major EU countries. And, these workers in the U.S. are mostly in the U.S. without visas expressly tied to work, which is the case for European countries.

The U.S. has a higher foreign-born worker share than does Germany, Spain and France. The share in the U.S. was 13% in 2000, 16% in 2010 and 19% in 20204. In Germany, Spain and France the foreign worker share is between 15% and 18%.  In 2000, the foreign worker share in these three countries did not exceed 10%.

In 2024, a majority of foreign-born workers were from outside the EU (Germany, Turkey; Spain, Morocco and Latin America; France, Algeria and Morocco).  Thus, even with large numbers of Poles and Bulgarians who work within the EU outside their country, the dominant source of foreign-born workers are from outside the EU. Generally speaking,  the non-EU workers are admitted on a work visa.

Likely due to much stricter rules in Europe about checking the papers of workers, the share of workers there who are unauthorized is very low, 1 – 5% of foreign workers, than in the U.S. – about 25%. This high figure for the U.S. is due to a large surge in unauthorized workers during 1990 – 2006, responding to demand for workers in meat processing, textiles, construction and farming.