The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimates that the rapid growth in the number of temporary visa holders and “get-aways” under Biden added to the GDP and that a significant drop of these workers between 2025 and 2027 will lower GDP growth.  With the border crossings shut down and mass deportation, it estimates that GDP growth in 2027 will be 1.49% lower than had Trump-induced border shutdown, self-deportations and mass deportations not occurred.

The authors cite a Brooking’s study of October 2024 which forecasted that a Trump administration’s immigration policies will reduce 2025 GDP by 0.5%. a September 2024 Peterson Institute also forecasted a decline of GDP.

These three forecasts make different assumptions about the size of the workforce reduction. So far, I believe that the workforce has declined by at least one million through June 2025 due to immigration law enforcement. I think it is reasonable to estimate a reduction of at least 3 million workers by 2027 if the pace of enforcment stays where it is now. That comes to about 2% of the workforce, with the losses concentrated in farm, construction hospitality and personal care sectors where the workforce reduction can be 10%-20% or higher. These are generally $15 an hour jobs for which it is hard to believe that legal workers will flock to. So wages would have to increase, pretty quickly.