The workforce since April 2025 declined by over one million, for the first time a decline since the pandemic year of 2020. This is a decline of about 0.5% in the total workforce in two months. This is a far greater rate of change than normally, which for a two-month period has been for decades has been about 0.15% The driver appears most likely is foreign born workers leaving the workforce.

In September 2024, The Wall Street Journal, using a study by the, estimated the net growth of foreign-born persons during the Biden administration at nine million persons.  At about 3 million persons per year, that comes to triple the annual volume of pre-Biden years of roughly one million. Green card migration was at or below past trends.  The increase is almost entirely due to undetected unauthorized entries and to humanitarian programs—asylum, Humanitarian Parole and Temporary protected Status.

The total foreign-born workforce at the end of 2024 was roughly 32 million, or 19% of the entire workforce, an increase since 2015 when the share was about 17%.

Immigrants tend to have higher workforce rates than U.S. born persons. Assuming a 70% rate (compared to total workforce rate of about 62%), and assuming some lag in legal eligibility, perhaps 5 million recently arrived foreign-born entered the workforce in 2021 – 2024.

In the pandemic year of 2020, the workforce declined by about 2.8 million- then rose in 2021 by a modest half million. In 2023 and 2024, the workforce grew by about 6 million, and one million in 2024. In sum, the workforce grew from 2021 through 2024 by about 7.5 million.  It is highly likely that a great majority of this increase was due to foreign-born workers.

From December 2024 through April 2025 – four months – the workforce appears to have surged by over one million – and then declined by over one million.  The most plausible reason for the decline is due to foreign-born workers removing themselves from the workforce.  With the termination of humanitarian parole for key populations and pressure from ICE upon unauthorized persons, how far will the decline extend?