The NY Times poll of 913 registered voters conducted April 21- 24 reports that 37% strongly support “deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries.” 17% somewhat support,16% somewhat oppose, and 26% strongly oppose. The poll looks at how informed people are about deportation activity (for instance if they are aware of the Abrego Garcia case). With the help of ChatGPT, I integrated the poll results to come up with a profile and narrative of how the shift away from support of deportation will most likely occur.
The most likely shiftable person is 45–64, white, high school or some college, Midwest or South, they vote, but don’t closely follow the news and may consume local or cable news sporadically. They might be a 53-year-old white man in suburban Iowa, a moderate Republican voter who supported Trump in the past.
Scenario: “A Shift in the Heartland”
Setting: Davenport, Iowa — May 2025
Jim McAllister is 54 years old, a third-generation Iowan. He’s worked maintenance at the same agricultural supply warehouse for 28 years. He lives with his wife, Cheryl, and their teenage daughter, Claire, in a modest ranch house on the west side of town. Politically, Jim votes Republican. He’s not an ideologue, just a man who believes in rules, fairness, and hard work. He doesn’t follow the news closely — usually just catches the local evening TV broadcast and checks Fox News headlines during lunch.
One Monday evening, he’s watching KWQC News 6 at Ten. The lead story hits close to home.
“BREAKING: Local Mother Detained by ICE While Dropping Her Kids at School.”
The anchor reports that María Alvarez, a 38-year-old Guatemalan woman who’s lived in Davenport for 16 years, was detained by immigration officers just after 8 a.m. that morning. María has two children, both U.S. citizens — one in third grade, the other in seventh. She was leaving the school parking lot when plainclothes ICE agents approached, confirmed her identity, and took her into custody.
Her only record, the anchor notes, is a misdemeanor from 2012 — an expired vehicle registration fine. María worked full-time at a nursing home, paid taxes through an ITIN, and was known in her church community.
Jim watches the footage: María’s children being escorted by school staff, her pastor giving an emotional statement, her neighbors expressing disbelief.
He frowns. “Didn’t even get to say goodbye to her kids,” he mutters.
The next day, during his break, Jim opens a Fox News article on his phone:
“ICE Arrests 142 in Mississippi Poultry Plant Raid”
The piece details a major worksite raid in Laurel, Mississippi, where over 140 people were taken into custody at two chicken-processing facilities. The company, the article says, had a long history of hiring undocumented workers. The news outlet emphasizes law enforcement’s perspective — that this is about restoring “law and order.”
But one paragraph catches Jim’s attention. It mentions that many of those arrested had been living in the U.S. for over a decade. Some had no criminal history. Many left children at school or daycare, only for those kids to return home to empty houses.
He thinks again about María. About her kids. About the quiet Guatemalan man, Rafael, who has worked nights at his warehouse for seven years — always on time, never a problem. About the tacos Rafael brought in last Christmas, how his daughter made them, how proud he was.
Jim doesn’t say much that week. But on Sunday, after church, he tells Cheryl, “You know, I used to think we just needed to send ’em all back. But this — this ain’t right. We’re not just deporting people. We’re tearing up families.”
And the next time immigration comes up at work, and someone cracks a joke, Jim says quietly, “You should’ve seen the look on that little girl’s face on the news. Didn’t look like law and order to me. Looked like we forgot to be decent.”
Something’s shifted. Not in what Jim believes about rules — but in how he now thinks they ought to be applied.