The Hispanic approval of Republicans surged in the 2022 and 2024 elections but in the past three months economic worries appear to have erased these gains.
Background to 2024/2025
In the 2010s, Democrats had been relying on the support of roughly 90% of Black voters and 70% of Hispanic voters. This implies that per the Dems, the Republican should not receive more than 30% of the vote.
In 2016, according to Edison Research, Trump received 28% of the Hispanic vote
In the 2018 mid-term Congressional elections, an estimated 69% of Latinos voted for the Democratic candidate and 29% backed the Republican candidate. 27% of Latino voters said they were voting for the first time, compared with 18% of black voters and 12% of white voters. (This has been a trend for some time, as Hispanics are coming into adulthood at a relatively faster rate than are others.)
In 2020, Trump won 32% of the Hispanic vote. Thus, the Democrats in the late 2010s achieved its target of 70% of the Hispanic vote, but the percentage was marginally declining. (Go here.)
In the 2022 mid-term Congressional elections, Pew Research estimated that 39% of Hispanic voters cast their ballots for Republican candidates, while 60% supported Democrats. This should have caused flashing red lights.
The Hispanic vote in November 2024
Trump won 46% of the Hispanic vote in November’s election. This percentage is 7% points higher than the 2022 mid-terms and 14% higher than the 2020 election. The swing was heavily among Hispanic men: per Edison Research, by 55% up from 36% for Trump in 2020. American Electorate Voter Poll put Trump’s support among Latino men at 43%. The Navigator Research post-election survey said received 50% of Hispanic men. According to Edison Research, 38% of Hispanic women voted for Trump in 2024, up from 30% in 2020.
Edison Research wrote, “It’s worth noting that 40% of Hispanic/Latino voters named the economy as their most important issue from a pick-list of five possibilities, nine points higher than the voting population overall.”
Job approval since January 2025
As a point of reference, Biden in January 2020 started with a 73% approval rating by Hispanics, which declined slightly to 69% by the summer of 2021.
Trump’s approval/ disapproval rating among Hispanics in January was 37%/54%. By April the rating worsened to 31%/61%. This deterioration appears to be caused mainly by economic worries.
UnitosUS reported on April 28, based on its poll, that “Pocketbook issues continue to dominate the concerns of Latino voters — cost of living, jobs, housing and health care affordability — with immigration rounding up the top five. On the economy, 54% of Latino respondents said it is worse when compared to last year; 60% believe things are going in the wrong direction, and 70% of them hold President Trump and his administration responsible.”
In sum, the surge of Hispanic approval of Republicans, dramatically evident in 2022 and 2024 voting, appears to have stalled and even reversed. And, this is due to pocketbook issues.
One important aspect of the Hispanic vote for which we do not have good information: the percentage of voting eligable Hispanics who actually vote is much lower than for whites (something like 60% vs 70%).