Month: February 2025

ICE enforcement has not picked up under Trump

TRAC (Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse) has analyzed ICE arrest and removal trends under the Trump administration compared to the Biden administration.  There is no evidence to support claims of higher arrests and removals.

Arrests: ICE arrests have not significantly increased under Trump compared to Biden’s administration. In February 2025, the average daily ICE arrests (724) were actually 4.7% lower than the average during Biden’s FY 2024 (759).

Detentions: The number of detained individuals increased slightly from 39,703 on January 12, 2025 (end of Biden’s term) to 41,169 on February 9, 2025 (under Trump), a 3.7% increase.

Removals (Deportations): ICE removals have decreased by 6.5% under Trump compared to Biden’s administration. During FY 2024 ICE deported an average of 742 individuals per day. For the period of January 26 to February 8, 2025 (under Trump), deportations dropped to 693 per day.

 

CBO: without immigration total population to decline in 2033

The Congressional Budget Office makes a new population forecast (revising one in 2024, here) which says that without immigration, the country’s population will begin to decline in 2033. A revised rate of population growth generally slows over the next 30 years, from an average of 0.4% a year between 2025 and 2035 to an average of 0.1% a year between 2036 and 2055.  This is due in part a lower of the fertility rate from 1.75 noted in the 2024 forecast to 1.6 on the long run. Net immigration, projected at 1.1 million a year, becomes an increasingly important source of population growth period without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033.

This forecast makes immigration, which is more concentrated in working ages than the existing population (due to fewer children coming in), even more important in the growth of the working population. The prime age (25-54) population has been declining since about 2020. Only with immigration, which I have estimated addd 600,000 persons to the workforce, is the working age population increasing.

More detail:

The CBO estimates that pre-Biden the net immigration rate was about 920,000 per year. After three explosive years under Biden, when net immigration averaged 2.9 million (most of humanitarian parole and asylum applicants), and two last years averaging 1.75 million, the CBO projects for 2027 – 2055 at 1.1 million immigratns. This 1.1 million estimate, like past ones, are the sum of a complex sorting out of new and revised legal status, netting out to a round number of the net number of persons from abroad expected to live here indefinitely.

First year mass deportation budget

The American Immigration Council says that the FY 2025 budget reconciliation bill before the Senate deal will reportedly include at least $175 billion for immigration and border enforcement. It estimates that over the past 20 years, total annual spending for CPB and ICE had averaged $20 billion.

In October 2024 the Council estimated that mass deportation of approximately 13 million undocumented immigrants would cost at least $315 billion for a one-time operation, or $967.9 billion over a decade for a sustained effort deporting one million people annually.

The first year budget of the Trump Administration appears consistent with the Council’s forecast given it is a ramp-up year. The major cost increases per the Council will be massive expansion of detention facilities (DHS wants to increase capacity from 40,000 to 100,000) immigration courts (the great majority of affected persons will have right to court appeal)  and enforcement personnel (10s of thousands of new hires). 

 

Six Hispanic Republican Congressman and Trump’s mass deportation policy

There are six congressional districts with a majority Hispanic population and a Republican congressional representative. Here they are, with the percentage of Hispanic population and recent comments well as some past comments about immigration.

On January 29, the three Florida representatives listed below (Diaz-Balart, Giménez and Salazar) released a joint statement that they stood in solidarity with the Venezuelan community, emphasizing the need for humane treatment and legal protections for those fleeing the Maduro regime.

David Valadao (CA-21) Fresno- San Joaquin Valley. 51% Hispanic. Valadao has warned that increased deportations could lead to higher costs for goods, emphasizing the economic impact on the Central Valley’s agricultural sector.  In 2018, he stated: “It is important to create a fair process to give immigrants the opportunity to obtain earned citizenship, thus avoiding the creation of a second-class society.” In 2014, Valadao voted against a bill that would have dismantled the DACA program.

Mario Díaz-Balart (FL-25) Miami-Dade County, 72%. He has represented this reliably Republican district since 2003. He and Gimenez contacted DHS Secretary Kristi Noem regarding the “urgent situation” of Venezuelans losing TPS. They argued that social and political conditions in Venezuela have not significantly improved, implying concern about potential deportations. He wrote about Trump’s policy, “You can’t deport somebody back to a country where you know they’re going to potentially suffer real persecution.” In 2014, he was “eagerly seeking a deal” on undocumented immigrants that could gain bipartisan support.

Carlos Gimenez (FL-26). Miami-Dade County. 67%. As Mayor of Miami-Dade County in 2017, Giménez ordered county jails to comply with federal immigration detention requests. Regarding the termination of TPS for Venezuelans, he wrote Trump, “”I urge you to make a compassionate and individually tailored solution to those who contribute to our country and respect the rule of law.”

Maria Elvira Salazar (FL-27) Miami-Dade County. 69%. District has recently swung to the right. She has been the most vocal of the six express concern about Trump’s policy. She wrote to DHS, “Although President Biden originally created this new program [humanitarian parole for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua Venezuela] and on dubious legal grounds and brought individuals here without a plan for their future, they were still enrolled under programs offered to them. Therefore, I believe they should have the ability to see their applications out to rectify their legal status.” Salazar, along with other Florida lawmakers, expressed “profound disgust” after reports that a former high-ranking Cuban Communist Party leader was allowed to enter the U.S. through a visa parole program.

Monica De La Cruz (TX-15) McAllen. 83%. She said, “President Trump is focused on taking out of our country illegal immigrations who have committed crimes, crimes such as those that were committed against Laken Riley.”. She acknowledged that while the primary targets are those with criminal records, it’s possible that other undocumented immigrants might also be affected by the policy. She has referred to the Biden administration border policy as a “joke.”

Tony Gonzales (TX-23).San Antonio. 64%. This district was redrawn in 2021 to make it a safe Republican district Regarding mass deportation he recently said, “If the message is, ‘We’re here to deport your abuelita,’ that’s not going to work well. It has to be one of holding these hardened criminals accountable.” And, “If we’re going after the guy that’s picking tomatoes or the nurse at the local hospital and we’re not going after the convicted criminal, then our government has failed us.”

 

 

Special identity documents at a time of mass deportation

New York’s Department of Motor Vehicles issues a “standard” drivers license which looks like a normal drivers license except being marked “not for federal purposes.”  A “standard license” is a term used nationally to describe a personal identification that does not meet the REAL ID criteria created by a 2005, post 9/11 law, to control access to transportation such as airlines.

New York’s DMV requires proof of identity and location of residence. Typically an unauthorized person gets a what is commonly referred to as a consular identification card from a consulate of their country, such as Mexico. A card typically includes proof of nationality and identity, a photo ID and address. This is sufficient for the DMV to issue a license.

The Federal suit

Federal law enforcement agencies routinely inspect state databases in their normal line of work. Attorney General Bondi filed a suit against New York.  (This is gotten more play than a suit the week before against Illinois.) She objects to the provisions in the “Green Light” Law that bars the DMV from revealing information about the standard license holder to ICE and other federal immigration enforcement agencies, except by court order. Further, the DMV must notify individuals when federal immigration authorities request their information.

Besides New York State other states with special drivers licenses also have created legal barriers to immigration law enforcement agencies. (Go here for a national review of this topic). These include Illinois, Virginia, New Jersey, Colorado, California and Washington.

The most recent news regarding standard drivers license is the enactment of the Work and Family Mobility Act in Massachusetts, which went into effect in 2023.  The state’s Registry of Motor Vehicles is prohibited from asking or recording any questions about a person’s immigration status, but there are no bars to information requests by federal immigration law agencies.  The law was passed in 2022 by an override to Governor Charlie Baker’s veto. Opponents secured a referendum vote for repeal in November 2023. The repeal was rejected by 54% of the vote. Baker’s main objection was that the RMV did not have the capacity to identify fraudulent documents submitted by applicants.

 

 

Why mass deportation?

Except as a phase in an overall redesign of our legal system of immigration I do not see as compelling rationale for mass deportation other than that suggested by Timothy Snyder:

“Deportations are a spectacle to turn Americans against one another, to make us afraid, and to get us to see pain and camps as normal. They also create busy-work for law enforcement, locating the “criminals” in workplaces across the country, as the crime of the century takes place at the very center of power.”

It is worth noting that Trump has not called for an overhaul of immigraton laws by Congress.

STEM graduate education foreign students/faculty, and indirect costs

The Trump Administration’s slashing of indirect costs for federal grants for university-based research to a maximum of 15% may especially threaten STEM research and academic departments.  It may drive many foreign-born research and faculty in STEM to go to another country.

About 45% of STEM Masters and 46% of STEM PhDs awarded by US institutions go to international students on temporary visas. 29% of full-time science and engineering faculty in U.S. universities are foreign-born. 49% of U.S.-trained postdocs were born overseas.

Steve Hsu (@hsu_steve) writes on X: The [indirect cost] cuts will harm overall university budgets, but the main harm will be to very expensive STEM activities on campus, which require large IC charges to fund.

Building new labs, renovating old labs, hiring staff to deal with real regulatory and compliance requirements, etc. all require additional funds from ICs. Existing grants do not cover any of these costs which are very large and very real….Overall this is a huge win for China because the appeal of working as a scientist at a US university is significantly diminished as the available resources decrease.

Here is an article saying that direct costs are immune from Executive Branch interference.

How much do immigrants impact the total workforce?

I recently posted an estimate that permanent (green card) immigration adds roughly 720,000 new employed persons to the workforce.  How much do they contribute to the flow of all persons entering into and exiting employment (due to death and retirement)?

To sum up: Current immigration contributes to new worker growth and to total worker growth net of retirements.  Not as dramatically as some conjecture. However, if it is important to keep the working age population growing, then new immigrants every year are very important.

First, let’s look at new entrants.  Think of streams of persons entering into the job market.

In 2025, about four million U.S. born persons will turn 18. As a lifetime cohort group, at any time in prime working age, about 80% will be employed, or about 3.2 million. Thus one can say that they will add 3.2 million to employment rolls.

On the surface, today, first time immigrant workers (720,000) are about 22% of new these U.S. born workers. but there are expected fewer U.S. born persons turning 18 in 2035, and fewer new workers – 2.9 million. If we keep immigration at the same level, in 2025 immigrant workers will be about 25% of new job holders.

If you look at the contribution of new immigrants to the total stock of workers, the contribution of new immigrants soars. U.S. born workers are retiring in hordes due to aging-out, resulting in there being an annual net decline of all U.S. born workers of about 200,000. This net loss will increase, part to aging, part to low fertility.  Thus, 730,000 new foreign born workers compensate for an overall decline of U.S. born workers.

However, consider that foreign born workers are also aging. The net change in immigrant workers (720,000 new entrants less many retiring due to aging) is most likely probably slightly or moderately positive. This will continue to be positive, as today new immigrants are more into working age than U.S. born persons.  But before too long that will not be the case as the foreign-born population ages overall.

The Census expects the total workforce to grow by about 500,000 a year – about one third of one percent a year. This increase is due in part to people expected to work later in life. For example, Census expects that the number of 65+ working will increase from 2022 to as soon as 2032 by about on average 400,000 a year. This shows that there is more than immigration and young entrants to the growth of our workforce.

 

 

Annual employment-based green cards – an overview 

Simply stated, about 140,000 green cards are reserved for employment-based applications, as opposed to about 750,000 family based green cards.  How many workers come in these ways?  That depends in part on whether those dependents accompanying the primary applicants (about 50-50) are working age.  A rough estimate is that 70% – 80% of those who get in with an employment based or a family based green card are of working age. That comes to about 650,000 – 750,000 a year.  How many actually become employed? Perhaps 600,000 – 700,000.  (if you include refugees and other green cards, these estimates of employed increase by about 70,000.)

Employment visas like most other visas have annual caps. These caps for each visa include dependents. Roughly half of these visas are issued to the primary individual seeking the visa, and half to their dependents. There is a 7% cap for each visa by country; i.e. only 40,040 x 7% = 2,828 can be awarded to any country (such as India).  Actual numbers of visas awarded in any year vary due to several factors, such as access to visas what were not issued under the cap for other purposes, such as family-based visas.

It usually takes at least 12 months, if not two years or more, between the initial date of filing an application and the award of one of these visas. Over three quarters of EB visa awardees are already residing and working in the U.S. while they file and wait.

40,040 EB1 visa: persons with extraordinary ability, tenure track in academia, corporate executive, and other reasons

40,040 EB2 visa: professionals with advanced degrees or exceptional ability. Need a job offer and cubject to wage evaluation (labor certification) by Dept, of Labor

40,040 EB3 visa skilled worked in name but basically plain ol’ highly desirable workers. .Perhaps a cook who skilled at one kind of ethnic dishes. Need a job offer and cubject to wage evaluation (labor certification) by Dept, of Labor

9,940 EB4 visa: special immigrants like religious workers.

9,940 EB5 visa: investors with at least $1 million to invest in a for-profit venture and create 10 jobs, plus other criteria.

White South Afrikaners as refugees to the U.S.

President Trump has issued an Executive Order classifying South African Afrikaners as a specifically designated population for refugee status. This might be the first time an advanced western country provides formal aid to a group of white persons intimately associated with writing, not long ago, racist laws of oppression against non-white persons.