Month: January 2025

Trump administration halts all refugee effort, abandoning tens of thousands of cases without notice

An January 20 Executive Order titled “Realigning the United States Refugee Admissions Program”  suspended the refugee program indefinitely, effective January 27. (Go here for an earlier posting on this.) On January 24, the State Department instructed the vast network of resettlement partners, many of them religious organizations, to immediately cease all work.  The effect of both orders are reported to be at least: 10,000 refugees who had already been cleared for travel to the U.S. had their plans canceled; 10,000 Afghans who were promised resettlement were left stranded in Pakistan; thousands of refugees already in the U.S. are abandoned by the federal government.

The Cato Institute issued this report on January 27. Also go here for a news report.)

An example of a resettlement partner is World Relief. The following are excerpts from its report to the public:

(Baltimore, MD) January 25, 2025 – Late on Friday [January 24], World Relief received a notice from our longtime governmental partner, the U.S. Department of State, instructing us to “stop all work” under the grant agreement that provides initial resettlement support to newly arrived refugees for the first several months of their lives in the United States.

Early on Saturday [January 25], we received a similar notice impacting lifesaving programs that World Relief carries out internationally in partnership with local church partners through an agreement with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Both “stop orders” cite the legal authority of President Trump’s recent Executive Order on Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid.

World Relief is seeking more clarity from our governmental partners on precisely what these instructions mean — and we hope that there may be some misunderstanding and possibility of reconsideration — but we are deeply grieved by the profound harm that these abrupt mandates seem likely to have on vulnerable people who have already endured profound crises.

 

 

civil violation vs misdemeanor vs felony in immigration law enforcement

Improper presence: If ICE arrests a person who has been in the U.S. for many years without committing any misdemeanors or felonies, but cannot provide evidence of legal status, they will likely face charges of civil violation of immigration law rather than criminal charges.  The person would likely be charged with being “unlawfully present” in the United States. Other examples of unlawful presence leading to civil charges are overstaying a visa, violating the terms of a legal entry (e.g., working on a tourist visa), and remaining in the U.S. after being ordered to leave.

What about improper entry — to enter or attempt to enter the U.S. at a place other than a designated port of entry, elude examination or inspection by immigration officers, or  attempt to enter or enter through false representations or concealment of facts. A first-time offense of improper entry is typically classified as a misdemeanor, punishable by a fine, imprisonment for up to 6 months, or both. If an individual has been previously convicted of improper entry, any subsequent offense is treated as a felony, subject to a fine or imprisonment for up to 2 years, or both.

 

Farm workers and the new administration

“On Jan. 7, the pre-dawn quiet of Kern County was shattered by a series of Customs and Border Protection raids billed as “targeted criminal enforcement.” The day after the first Kern County sweep, one citrus operation reported that 25% of its workers did not show up. By the following day, that number had climbed to 75%.” (from here).

The California produce farm community has sought for years for federal legislation that normalizes the status of unauthorized workers. Unless there is a comprehensive immigration reform package, there is no chance such legislation will pass.  Over the past 15 years these firms have relied less and less on unauthorized workers. However, If the Trump administration goes after these workers, and also make it more difficult for farms to use legally temporary workers (H-2A visas), there will be a serious labor supply problem. More food will be imported. If Trump imposes major tariffs on Mexico and other Latin American countries, food, primarily produces and nuts, will become more expensive. Half of vegetables, fruits and nuts are imported, roughly doubling in market share in 15 years.

California has been the leading farm state since 1949. A major role of farming in the state are fresh produce. Mexican born workers dominate the farm workforce, which includes about 420,000 full time equivalent workers at any time. Mexicans have an average of eight years education and average 42 years old. Half of them are unauthorized.   The unauthorized Mexican workforce in the United States, including California farms, began to a decline after the financial crisis. In the last 15 years, farms throughout the United States including California have relied more and more on temporary H-2A workers workers. (Here is my overview of this program, posted in 2013.) With decreasing dependence on unauthorized workers, farms–particularly the very large ones– drove up the H-2A workforce from about 75,000 in 2010 to 400,000 today.

H2A guest workers are mostly Mexican men in their 30s who work about six months a year. They cost employers $25 to $30 an hour which includes housing and transportation as well as wages. (Weekly income to the workers is about $800.) This is more expensive than other farm workers but, H-2A workers are more productive due to there being tied to employers as opposed to being freelancing, going from one farm to another period.  This is an important aspect of large-scale temporary visa worker on forums. They favor large farms which are relatively more adept at driving productivity improvements.

California farmers usually report trouble in finding workers. The relatively very old, 42 years, of the established Mexican workforce reflects not only the absolute decline in authorized Mexican workers but also the lack of interest of their children and others to work in the fields.

There are several ways to reduce dependence on foreign-born workers for produce food for the American table.  A key one is to match vegetables and fruits, plus nuts, with mechanization.  Another way, of course, is to simply import food.A great deal of produce sold in the United States now comes from Mexico such as avocados and blueberries from Peru and South American countries. Since 2016 the majority of blueberries consumed by Americans are imported. There more Mexican produce workers in Mexico for the export market to the United States then produce workers in California.

Beyond the workforce issues of California farmers there is also the acute dependence by small dairy farmers throughout the country on unauthorized workers. That is for another posting.

 

(Sources of content mainly prior posts and an April 2024 report by Philip Martin of UC Davis, who has studied California farming for years).

What we see in greater deportation activity

The news of the day is action by the Trump Administration to crush any resistance of countries (mainly Latin American) to flights from the U.S. carrying deported persons back to their country of origin. A blow up with Colombia lasted less than 24 hours.

However, a development with much more serious implications is the plan by the administration to expand “expedited removal.”

Expedited removal is located in Section 235(b)(1) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. This law authorizes immigration officers to summarily remove certain noncitizens without further hearing or review, thus by-passing immigration courts. Generally speaking, expedited removal applies to persons who have been in the United States without authorization for up to two years.   Thus, any long-term authorized resident would not be subjected to expedited removal.

The Trump administration has filed a proposed change to expedited removal by reversing a 2022 policy by the Biden  administration to limited use of expedited removal to persons within 100 miles of the border. The new rule will extend the power throughout the U.S.

The NY Times reported that on January 25 Dept of Homeland Security Secretary Homans issued a memo which extends expedited removal to all so-called CHNV humanitarian visa holders – those who have been admitted up to 30,000 a month since this program was created by Biden to divert persons from the Mexican border. The CBP One app was used for many of these persons as well as by others. The DHS is basically saying that the CHNV program and the CBP App were illegal and thus anyone admitted through one or both of these programs is not authorized. This entire population is about 1.2 million.

This initiative is consistent with my expectation that Trump will go after the large numbers of persons admitted under Biden by temporary visa programs.

 

 

 

 

 

Humanitarian parole under attack by Trump

On January 20, Trump terminated the humanitarian parole program for at least the so-called CHNV countries. I am unable now to determine if similar programs for Ukrainians and Afghans have also been cancelled. This will almost certainly lead to hundreds of thousands of program beneficiaries being forced to leave the United States when their one or two-year stay is over.

This revocation of the program was 100% predictable. It is given little national media exposure because the media is fixated on Trump’s largely theatrical actions relating to the Mexican border (such as sending in elite troups to serve not to repel an invading forces but as construction workers).

On January 23, according to Welcome US, the Department of Homeland Security issued a notice directing immigration officials to review cases of individuals who are currently in the United States on humanitarian parole to determine whether to terminate their parole status and begin the process of removing them from the United States back to their home country.

Humanitarian parole was transformed by the Biden administration from a largely small scale program to much larger one, affecting hundreds of thousands of persons. it also introduced the requirement for financial sponsorships – a semi-privatization of humanitarian entry, because you needed a sponsor within the U.S. to be admitted.

Here is my overview of the Biden humanitarian parole programs…..and a summary of the National Immigration Forum’s in depth briefing on the program (go here for the entire document):

Humanitarian parole is a discretionary tool under the Immigration and Nationality Act that allows certain individuals to enter and temporarily stay in the U.S. without a visa. It’s granted for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit, providing temporary lawful presence and protection from deportation. It’s temporary and doesn’t confer permanent status or a path to citizenship. It’s used in various scenarios, including medical treatment, family emergencies, and large-scale humanitarian crises. Parolees undergo vetting and background checks. It has been used in major operations like the evacuation from Vietnam in 1975 and Afghanistan in 2021. Parole does not lead to permanent status and limits access to some public benefits.

Federal troops at the border: what for?

The U.S. is deploying some of its most valuable fast response troops to serve as construction workers.

According to the Wall Street Journal, The Pentagon on Friday readied more than 5,000 troops from high-profile warfighting units to deploy to the southwestern U.S., moving to fulfill President Trump’s order to escalate the military role along the border.

Armed infantry and support troops from the 82nd Airborne Division and the 10th Mountain Division…could be at the border within days, one defense official said

The 82nd and 10th Mountain divisions are among the Pentagon’s most combat-ready forces, reflecting Trump’s directive that the Pentagon “prioritize the protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the United States along our national borders.”

This deployment fits into the Trump narrative about an invasion which rises to the level of a national emergency (go here and here for the White House’s announcements).

U.S. troops will construct additional temporary and permanent physical barriers for additional security to curtail illegal border crossings and illicit trafficking, Pentagon officials said. Perhaps the military will provide planes to deport more persons, but I have no insight into whether more flights are needed now.

 

 

Trump directives on refugees

The first Trump administration sought to destroy the refugee system. it severely cut back on refugee administratons which caused severe disruption to the network of non-profit organizations (largely faith-based) to survive.  below is the American Immigration Council’s analysis of measures the new administration has taken (date of report January 22):

Key policy changes

  • Suspending arrivals of refugees to the United States indefinitely as of January 27, 2025. (“Realigning the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program”)
  • Directing the federal government to design a new refugee process that selects only refugees who will be able to “assimilate into the United States,” and gives states and localities more say in allowing refugees to settle in their areas. (“Realigning the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program”)
  • Instructing officials to create a list of countries that are alleged to share insufficient information with the U.S. for vetting purposes, laying the groundwork for a new travel ban. (“Protecting the United States from Foreign Terrorists”)

What’s already happened

  • While the text of the executive actions gives January 27 as the date for the suspension of the refugee program, the State Department sent a memo to resettlement agencies on January 21 instructing them to cancel all travel for incoming refugees—essentially suspending the program six days early.

What happens next

  • U.S. refugee admissions—with potential case-by-case exceptions—will be halted until the U.S. government is satisfied a better program has been created. The Homeland Security Secretary is responsible for providing reports every 90 days on the progress of such a program.
  • A list of countries that share “insufficient” information with the U.S. will be provided to the president within 60 days, at which time travel and immigration bans may be issued against anyone from those countries.
  • Within 30 days, the Secretary of State is directed to provide recommendations to limit visa programs to exclude foreign nationals who do not support specific ideological values.

 

 

If the Supreme Court approves the end of birthright citizenship…

Millions of children already born will have their citizenship revoked. The number of living persons born in past decades in circumstances which Trump’s EO would bar citizenship runs into the millions. Many have had their own children, whose citizenship status would be thrown into doubt. The number of current children (uner 180 affected likely runs into the milllions.

Job growth and immigrant share 2022 – 2024

Adam Tooze refers to these figures below as “the coming labor market shock.”

If the Trump administration stops or, more likely, cuts back drastically on the inflow of working age immigrants, the impact on workforce supply will be significant. That is because the U.S. born workforce is declining, and a healthy economy needs to fill a net increase of at least two million jobs a year. If he removes hundreds of housands of immigrant workers, there may be an acute worker shortage in some industries.

By combining data from different sources, I estimate that:

In 2022, 4.8 million jobs were created, largely due to a rebound from the pandemic.  In 2023, 3 million jobs were created. In 2024, 2.2 million jobs were created. (All of these net increases.) for the three years: 10 million jobs.

In these three years, 6 million, or 60% of these jobs were filled by recent immigrants.  Half of these by asylum applicants and Parole or Temporary Protected Status persons.  About one million were those with legal non-humanitarian temporary visas such as H-1B. About 1.5 million were unlawful entry or visa overstays.

In the past ten or so years, the number of U.S. born persons of working age has been shrinking by about 300,000 a year. Thus the only way that job growth was a large as it was, was at least half due to immigration and the rest due to Americans returning to work after an involuntary or voluntary absence.

 

 

The Trump White House: Make America Safe Again

The Trump administration addressed immigration in the inauguration speech and on its website in the statement called Make America Safe Again. Here are some observations to a few parts of the statement and to his speech:

“Ending Biden’s catch and release policies, reinstating Remain in Mexico, building the wall, ending asylum for illegal border crossers, cracking down on criminal sanctuaries, and enhancing vetting and screening of aliens.”  Comment: This is a catch-all statement which, in my opinion, resets immigration policy to the first Trump administration.

Another statement refers to deportation focusing on “record boarder crossings of criminal aliens under the prior administration.” Comment: This is an example of Trump’s use of the word criminal to refer to a broad swathe of foreign-born persons without any evidence of actual past or present criminal activity. In his inauguration speech he said that there were people coming from mental hospitals and prisons across the border. Trump and his associates have been cagey in the last month about the scope of their deportation program. Perhaps to avoid embarrassment of failure in expelling a million or more persons, they have referred often to deporting criminals.

Refugees: “The president is suspending refugee resettlement, after communities were forced to house large and unsustainable populations of migrants, straining community safety and resources.”  Comment:  We may see a return to a purposeful dismantling of the refugee program, which drove annual refugee entries from the 80,000 – 100,000 level to under 20,000.

The way to significantly reduce refugee resettlement is to reduce the number of refugees and other temporary visa holders coming into the country. Neither the inauguration speech nor this statement address how the administration we’ll cut back on refugee migration and address the large number of humanitarian parole and temporary protected status persons in the country now.

Birthright citizenship: The statement does not address birthright citizenship, but Trump did in the inauguration speech. The Citizenship Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution states: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

Children not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the U.S. applies to children born to foreign diplomats who are protected by sovereign immunity.

It also applies to children of an invading force. While not explicitly stated in the Constitution, legal interpretations suggest that children born to members of a hostile occupying force would not be granted citizenship, because an invading force is deemed not subject to the jurisdiction of the U.S.

No mention of immigration legislation: competely missing from the speech and the statement.