Donald Trump during the campaign and during his first administration demonstrated a penchant for brutal and cruel comments about immigration. His aides, such as Stephen Miller, and restrictionist outposts such as the Center for Immigration Studies, have called for a shutdown, apparently across the board, on all forms of immigration.
With regard to massive deportation of unauthorized persons, that will not take place, because it will within weeks turn into a debacle. That cannot be done sub rosa as the separation of children from parents was for a few months in 2017, only to be halted immediately when it became apparent to the press. Massive deportation can be filmed, will be documented by attorneys and media. Public interest groups are primed to turn every arrest into a cause celebre.
It is more likely that he will use the power of his pen to withdraw executive branch protection of the 800,000 DACA beneficiaries and to the hundreds of thousands of humanitarian parole people admitted during the Biden administration. That also may apply to many of the Temporary Protected Status residents in the country. We will see a controlled voluntary or forced removal of hundreds of thousands of people.
We will see what the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom introduced as a “hostile environment” for unauthorized persons. This does not involve raids but systematic delay, bureaucracy and denials, on a case-by-case basis.
Yet I believe that the Senate, led by senator Tom Cotton, the most articulate republican senator in the area of immigration camera will come up with a new comprehensive immigration reform bill matching in importance the 1986 act, the Immigration Reform and Control Act, which was hashed out between President Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neill. This new reform bill will protect and enlarge the flow of skilled workers which the tech industry so much wants. The global market for artificial intelligence workers at the highest end of competency is intensely vibrant and today The United States gains immensely from dominating that market.
It may reduce refugee admisssions to the 20,000 person level, down from Biden’s target of at least 100,000. It will lower the number of family green cards issued. It might enlarge temporary worker programs, which are mainly for the agricultural sector.
Thanks for the insights. Perhaps it will not be as draconian as I had feared, hust misery and fear for those who seek asylum from violence and extreme poverty.
Also, Peter, there is a tremendous need for health care workers, the hotel industry, and for the thoisands of jiobs that American workers don’t want to do. To increase the inncentive for Americans, there would be a need to increase wages which would be inflationary.
Thanks for your insightful observations, Peter. One key area of the economy that may be traumatically affected as personal care assistance, a plurality of which are first generation Americans, and immigrants on the way to citizenship. If Trump falls through with his plans, many older Americans will find themselves, without the helpers they desperately need.