Allan Lichtman had a run of predicting correctly (with some fudging) presidential elections since 1980 with his 13 keys to the White House. In media interviews and profiles, in September he confidently predicted that Harris would win. Why did he get it wrong?

Since January 2024 I analyzed his 13 keys, scoring them to predict the winner. In mid October I decided that Trump would win. Lichtman mis-scored his own test.

As of mid October, 10 of the 13 keys had been resolved, resulting in an incomplete score of 6 for Harris and 4 four Trump. In order for Trump to win, he had to win each of the remaining three tests. Here are these tests. Trump won all three tests, resulting in a final score of Trump 7, Harris 6.

Key #10. Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America’s national interests or threaten its standing in the world.  Biden’s management of the border crisis constituted a foreign policy failure in that the surge of migrants into the country (amnesty applicants, humanitarian parole and Temporary Protected Status) was viewed as a non-military invasion, made visible by shelter crises, over-stressed public schools, and by the illusion of higher crime rates. The White House never tried to explain to the public what its policy was. In reality, it had no coherent policy.

Key #6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms. Even with technically higher GDP per capita growth, most people felt worse off during the Biden administration, primarily due to inflation.

Key #7. Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution. Lichtman in interviews firmly said yes. But Biden’s three major economic development bills, The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act, and an infrastructure act were poorly promoted and explained by the White House. Most voters likely could not recall them if asked.