Since January, I have followed the Allan Lichtman tests (“keys”) for the 2024 presidential election.  Immigration figures in this year!

The test is basically a vote of confidence or no confidence in the incumbent party. The candidate who gets at least 7 out of 13 tests wins the election (it is ambiguous whether popular vote or electoral college vote). The test was developed by statistical analysis of many presidential elections; the 13 questions when taken together have had a very tight fit with election results. They have proven right since the 1980 election (with some fudging in 2000 and 2016).

Lichtman himself said in September that Harris is sure to win.  In my view, her victory per the Lichtman test is not at all assured, and immigration comes in as a factor.

At this time (November 1), seven tests are resolved, 4 for Harris (#2,4,5 and 9) and 3 for Trump (#1,3 and 12). Three tests are probably resolved, 2 for Harris (8 and 13) and 1 for Trump (11). This sums to 6 for Harris and 4 for Trump. There remain 3 more tests. If Harris wins just one, she will have a total of 7 tests going her way. Trump has to win all three.

10.Foreign or military failure: “There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbor or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America’s national interests or threaten its standing in the world.”  Biden’s track record on the border, which metastasized into crowding of shelters and public schools across the U.S., might will be consider a “major failure.”

The two remaining unresolved tests are:

6.Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.  The Gallup Poll reports that 61% of Americans believe they are worse off than in the past.

7.Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.  Lichtman believes that the three legislative packages of Biden constitute such a major policy change. The problem is that most people cannot identify them or see how they have been directly impacted by them in a positive way.