Month: November 2024

Aging trends in U.S.

Average annual percentage increase from 2000 to 2050:
1. The entire US population: 0.61% per year
2. The population 65 and older: 2.09% per year

The total US population is projected to increase from 331 million in 2020 to 379 million in 2050, growing at a decelerating rate.  The population aged 65 and older is projected to grow from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million in 2050.

The impact of immigration is captured by the likelihood that by the early 2030s one third of the workforce will be first or second generation immigrants.

Thanksgiving poem

Poem by Rumi, in Gold, trans by Haleh Liza Gafori, New York Review Books, 2022 page 55

 

Spring is here—

fragrant, musky spring is here.

The Beloved is here,

the Soul of souls is here,

the One who welcomes everyone is here.

 

Wine is here, the wine of dawn is here,

wine that floods the soul with joy is here.

The cupbearer fills everyone’s cup.

 

Clarity is here—

stones in the river pulse with sunlight.

 

The cure is here, the cure for every ill is here.

The friend who soothes the ache is here.

 

The healer is here.

The healer who’s felt every shade of feeling is here.

 

Dance is here, the whirling dance is here.

The eternal bond and glorious breeze are here.

Poppies, basil, and the tulips’ stunning eyes are here.

 

One is here.

One who makes someone of no one is here.

 

The bright moon that clears the haze is here.

The heart stirring all hearts to laughter is here.

 

The Beloved is here, the Soul of souls is here—

and never left.

It’s our eyes that come and go.

 

Be silent now. Let silence speak.

Surrender the syllables you count on your fingers.

The river of countless messages is here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Which countries are most dependent on remittances?

Here are 11 countries many households of which are dependent on remittances from their diaspora workforces.

In the orbit of the United States: El Salvador – 24%; Haiti – 20%, Honduras – 26%

In the orbit of Russia, with Germany also involved: Kyrgyz Republic 20%, Tajikistan – 37%

Jamaica -19% from US and UK

Somalia – 25% large share of remittances likely from U.S, and UK, many in Ethiopia, Kenya and Yemen

Gambia – 26% from U.S. and western Europe

Lebanon – 36%: diaspora widely dispersed, likely large share from Saudi Arabia and U.S:

South Sudan – 35% from Uganda, Sudan and Ethiopia

Nepal – 27%: from India, Saudi Arabia, U.S. and Malaysia

 

 

The Jordan Commission on immigration in the 1990s

It is a rare day when you come across a crisp vision statement on immigration to the United States. You can find one in the report of the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform, informally known as the Jordan Commission, for its chair, Barbara Jordan (1936-1996) , a Democratic Congresswoman from Texas.

Created by the Bill Clinton’s White House,  the Commission addressed much of the major issues: family reunification, employment-based immigration, enforcement measures to stem unauthorized immigration, and numerical limits on all classes of immigrants, non-immigrants, and asylees.

Between 1994 and 1997 it issued four reports. In the last report, Becoming An American: Immigration and Immigrant Policy, the Commission defined a vision in 90 words:

“Properly-regulated immigration and immigrant policy serves the national interest by ensuring the entry of those who will contribute most to our society and helping lawful newcomers adjust to life in the United States. It must give due consideration to shifting economic realities. A well-regulated system sets priorities for admission; facilitates nuclear family reunification; gives employers access to a global labor market while protecting U.S. workers; helps to generate jobs and economic growth; and fulfills our commitment to resettle refugees as one of several elements of humanitarian protection of the persecuted.”

The Commission proposed to reduce legal immigration to 550,000 per year, down from approximately 800,000. It aimed to scale back family chain migration by prioritizing certain family relationships. It recommended a shift towards admitting highly skilled individuals as support for national interests. The Commission recommended elimination of unskilled worker admissions, and abolishment of the diversity visa lottery. It recommended vigorous enforcement and deportation policies.

The mass deportation idea is dead

We’re going to see the incoming administration weasel out of its rhetoric and focus on deporting persons with a criminal record. Administrations since Obama have been doing this. We are going to hear more about cancelling DACA, parole and TPS.

Senator Rand Paul, incoming chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, said that it would be a “terrible image” to use the Army to arrest unauthorized persons.

Denver mayor Mike Johnson said he would resist any mass deportation effort using military personnel.

Boston mayor Michelle Wu said that she will resist mass deportation efforts.

An analogy: in the early days of the Kennedy administration in 1961, the White House launched a program to construction bomb shelters. Not too long after, a Christian minister opined that it was not inconsistent with Christian doctrine for a family to shoot people trying to get into their home shelter. The administration quickly abandoned the project.

 

 

 

 

Mayorkas’ memo on deportation priorities

The incoming administration has begun to equivocate on what it means by mass deportation. through 2024, Trump and allies have used the word “illegal” in three ways” (1) those who are here without permission and without documentation, of which there are about 11 – 12 million,  (2) also those here with permission, but the permission is alleged to be illegal — such as DACA and many humanitarian parole, and (3) only persons who committed a crime.

Let’s see how the Biden administration targetted deportations:

The Sept 1, 2021 memorandum from Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security set forth guidelines for deportation of non-citizens. The memorandum is a useful benchmark of Biden’s immigration law enforcement policy to compare with the incoming Trump administration.  Mayorkas placed great emphasis on the exercise of prosecutorial discretion. ​ Key points include:

Prosecutorial Discretion: Federal officials have broad discretion in deciding who to arrest, detain, and remove.​ The enforcement priorities are: National Security: Noncitizens involved in terrorism or espionage. ​Public Safety: Noncitizens with serious criminal conduct, assessed on a case-by-case basis considering aggravating and mitigating factors. ​Border Security: Noncitizens apprehended at the border or after unlawful entry post-November 1, 2020. ​

The memorandum sets these procedural guidelines: Civil Rights and Liberties: Enforcement actions must not be discriminatory and should protect civil rights and liberties. ​Retaliation Protection: Immigration enforcement should not be used to retaliate against noncitizens asserting legal rights in labor or housing disputes. ​ Quality and Integrity: Training, data collection, and review processes will ensure consistent and fair enforcement actions. ​Implementation: The guidance will take effect on November 29, 2021, replacing previous interim guidance. ​

The document emphasizes targeted enforcement to use resources effectively and justly, focusing on threats while considering the contributions of noncitizens to communities.

Thanks to Fred Bauer at Unherd.

Mass deportation will not happen, something else will

Deportations are subject to appeals to and review by immigration courts. The court system is jammed with overload.  Special court systems in the U.S. are vulnerable to dysfunction by surges in cases,

Trump will likely cancel DACA, Parole and TPS. Much easier to do. Republican senators will use this to force an immigration bill in importance with those in the 1960s and 1980s.

A good comparision with the mass deportation idea is JFK’s plan to install bomb shelters across the country in 1961. The plan blew up and he dropped it quickly.

 

Where have Ukrainian refugees gone?

About 25 countries have admitted Ukrainian refugees since early 2022.  Before the war, Ukraine’s population was about 42 million.

Total: approximately 4.9 million, of which 4.2 million are in Europe. Thus about 12% of the population has left due to the war. (Compare this to 30% of the Syrian population having left due to its internal war.)

Germany: 1.2 million

Poland: 975,000

Czechia 375,000

Canada: 300,000

Romania: 170,000

United Kingdom: 160,000

United States: 170,000

The U.S.: These came via Uniting for Ukraine, a humanitarian parole program for temporary stay, much faster than regular refugee admission.  They are not technically refugees. Applicants to Uniting for Ukraine must have a U.S.-based supporter who can sponsor them financially. The sponsor applies to the program on behalf of the applicant, providing evidence of the financial means to support them.

The Uniting for Ukraine program was the model for the Biden administration to launch a similar program with host family sponsorships for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Over 500,000 persons have entered the U.S. under this program.

About 100,000 Afghans have been admitted since the collapse of American presence in mid 2021.

Why people get deported.

When we think of deportations, we generally think of persons in the U.S. who have entered and have lived here, in some cases for years. These cases tend to run through immigration court.

This is not a profile of actual deportations but of people in immigration court for the goal of deportation.  They do not include immediate expulsions at or near the border, but rather cases which work their way into the court system.

About 9.2 million cases are before immigration courts brought by the government to deport an individual. Some 3 million of these cases started in FY 2023 and FY 2024, meaning that most go back years.

Entry without inspection (i.e. jumped the border). 59% These cases apparently include cases for which there is no other cause, and for which “without inspection” can be easily ascertained.  These cases also presumably include persons whose ayslum application has been denied and they sought an appeal in the immigration court.

Other immigration charge 34%. It is unclear what these cases are about. They likely include visa overstays and working without authorization.   Thus, 93% of cases in immigration court for deportation do not include criminal or national security issues.

Aggravated felony 2%

Other criminal charge 4%

Terrorism 0% out of 9.2 million total cases, 132 related to terrorism.

National security charge 0%

 

 

 

 

History of large workplace raids, 2006 – 20128

Tom Homan, the “border czar” to work out of the White House, and presumably tell the future Secretary of Homeland Security when to go out for coffee, says that he will resume workforce raids.  Here is a list of large raids since 2000:

These raids were begun under the George W Bush administration, terminated under Obama, and (one instance) brought back under Trump.  Trump is planning mass arrests if he becomes president in 2025.

April, 2006. Several factories of IFCO, a manufacturer of crates and pallet facilities, we raided with arrests of about 1,100 workers and some management staff.

December 2006: Swift meat processing plants are raided. The raids took place at plants in Greeley, Colorado; Grand Island, Nebraska; Cactus, Texas; Hyrum, Utah; Marshalltown, Iowa; and Worthington, Minnesota.1,300 ICE agents were involved in the raids, resulting  in the arrests of nearly 1,300 undocumented immigrant workers.

March, 2007.  New Bedford MA clothing factory owned by Michael Bianco Inc raided resulting in about 350 arrests. Here is Senator Ted Kennedy’s statement about the raid.

May, 2008 Raid on Agriprocessors meat processing plant in Postville IA results in arrest of 1,000 workers.

October 2008, Greenville, SC meat processing plant of House of Raeford raided with arrest of about 350 workers,

July 2009 ICE enforcement action against American Apparel, with over 1,000 unauthorized workers, shows shift in enforcement from mass raids to financial penalties. Here abd here are postings about the shift in focus.

April, 2018. Bean Station, TN factory of Southeastern Provision, a family run meat processing plant, raided resulting in the arrest of about 100 workers.