Why there will be a major immigration bill during the next administration

The next administration, with Congressional support, will shift immigration for the first time since the 1965 liberalization act from family and humanitarian priorities to economic development priorities. This will happen regardless of who wins and will involve a major bipartisan legislative act.

A Trump victory portends a drastic reduction of immigration. A Harris victory will prolong what I view as Democratic paralysis over immigration, with inclusivists insisting on relatively open borders for a diverse population of immigrants. I believe that in either administration, there will emerge consensus for a third approach: more constrained immigration with a visible commitment to skilled worker immigration, such as I have often posted about Canada and Australia.

Driving this new consensus will be a national strategy of targeted government investment to spur private sector growth, strengthen domestic industries, and promote American economic interests. It aims to create jobs, boost competitiveness, and build a stronger foundation for long-term economic prosperity.  This strategy was already introduced by Biden in his three major legislative acts: the Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act.

Democratic politicians, I believe, realize that the 2021-2024 very large increase in migration, largely of a humanitarian kind, is politically costly. There will be an emerging consensus that an immigration strategy consistent with Biden’s truly historic commitment to state engagement in economic investment is needed.  Democrats will align with Republicans (most notable in the Senate) to fashion a pro-economic growth immigration bill.

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