Higher education: the white advantage as declined and will continue to do so.

The annual wage between four-year college degree holders and others was about $20,000 in 2000 and $35,000 in 2020.  When a group in American society increases its attendance at four-year college, it is not only increasing its average household income but also potentially gaining a larger share of the total college educated population. In 2000, some 45 million persons 25 and older had a four-year college degree. In 2020 about 90 million had a four-year college degree. During these 20 years, the non-white population grew faster than whites and they were increasingly attending four-year college.

Thus, over these 20 years, non-whites significantly narrowed the gap between their college degree attainment and that of whites. I believe that as the white population declines and non-white population continues to grow, the non-white college attainment track record will continue to improve relative to that of whites. Result: whites will have a distinctly lower overall advantage in formal education. By 2040 or so the graduating class of four-year colleges are increasingly likely to be over 50% non-white.

Obscuring this picture is that educational and population statistics do not consistently distinguish non-white from white Hispanics, and do not recognize mixed race. But the overall trend is undisputable.

Detail:

In 2000, about 25% of all white persons 25 years or older had a four-year college degree. This share rose to 33% in 2020. Compare that with non-whites:  in 2000, among non-whites over 25, about 12-14% had a four-year college degree and the share rose to about 23-25% in 2020. Thus, while non-white college rate was about 50% below whites (13%/25%=52%) in 2020, the gap declined to about 30% (24%/33%= 73%) in 2020.

This narrowing of the gap in a key socio-economic credential was due largely to a big jump in college completion by Hispanics, the rise in total Hispanic numbers, and the rise in the Asian population, which always had a college completion rate of over 50%.  Among foreign-born persons 25 years or older, the college graduates rose from 29% to 49% (which reflects the rise of Asia as the source of immigration in the 21st Century).

Between 2000 and 2019, the Asian population grew by 81%, Hispanics by 70%, Blacks by 26%, and non-Hispanic whites by 1.2% (including slight declines in 2016- 2019).

In other words, there are both more non-whites and their college attendance has grown.

Percentage white: Silent Generation ( first year 1928): 79%; Baby Boomers (1946): 72.2%; Generation X (1965): 61.5%; Millennials (1981) : 58%; Generation Z(1997) : 51-52%; Generation Alpha (2012): Less than 50%. Generation Alphas will be entering college in 2030.

 

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