An article by Elizabeth Carlson and Charles Wheeler, published in September 2024 in the Journal of Migration and Human Security, outlines potential immigration policies under a second Trump administration. It predicts a continuation and intensification of measures from Trump’s first term, focusing on border security, deportation, and legal immigration restrictions.
The article is a useful checklist of potential actions. Missing from their article is consideration of major legislative changes which I think is likely if both houses of Congress have Republican majorities: Trump will likely use the threat of severely disruptive executive orders (such as termination of DACA) to force through systematic restrictions. Look for Senator Tom Cotton to lead the Congressional initiative (go here). Key provisions of Cotton’s RAISE Act, filed in 2017, are: reducing legal immigration by about 50% over 10 years; a skills-based points system for immigration visas; limiting family-sponsored immigration to spouses and minor children of U.S. citizens and permanent residents; eliminating the diversity visa lottery program; and capping refugee admissions at 50,000 per year
Some of their key predictions include the following.
Interior enforcement: A shift in enforcement priorities will target all undocumented individuals rather than focusing on those posing security threats. Trump has several times said he plans massive deportation. I have addressed this plan here.
Border security: Trump plans to construct more sections of the border wall. He may try to restore the “Remain in Mexico” program (which requires Mexico’s participation) and Title 42 (which is statutorily bas ed on public health concerns).
Legal immigration restrictions: The administration aims to reduce family-based immigration and impose strict ideological screenings for visa applicants. Senator Cotton wants this severally cut back and a points system introduced to select skilled workers.
Public charge rules: These rules define what public services immigrants can have legal access to (such as public housing, public health insurance, maternal and children services). Trump tried to sharply reduce access. A federal court denied the proposed rules changes (go here). Trump may re-introduce these changes.
Asylum: The first Trump administration sought to completely dismantle the country’s asylum program, which depends greatly on non-government organizations to receive and support asylum beneficiaries, and to cut back several on admissions. Trump cut admissions from a prevailing level of about 85,000 a year to 12,000 a year. Biden has restored the program aiming at the 100,000 per year level
Humanitarian programs: Temporary admission programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS) could be terminated or significantly scaled back. Country-specific parole programs introduced by the Biden administration are likely to be ended. I have addressed his apparent goal of terminating some or all TPS admissions here.
Immigration courts: The administration is expected to limit prosecutorial discretion in immigration courts, increasing case backlogs. The backlog for asylum cases is now about 3.4 million.