This posting is about the Mexican border, drawing largely upon a thoroughly researched report by WOLA.  If you work through this posting you will get a understanding of how measures undertaken by the Biden administration and some Central American countries are significantly reducing and adding more controls over entering the U.S.

(I want to note that asylum seekers having been showing up in larger numbers at the Canadian border.

Overlapping crackdowns have cut U.S. border encounters. Border crossings have dropped sharply as an immediate result of two overlapping 2024 crackdowns on migration, which have been especially hard on migrants seeking protection. First, since the beginning of the year, the government of Mexico has stepped up aggressive efforts to block migrants, busing tens of thousands of them to the southern part of the country. That caused migration between ports of entry (26 formally named as such) to drop by 50% from December 2023 to January 2024.

Second, in early June, the administration launched a second crackdown: a proclamation and rule refusing asylum to most people who cross the border between ports of entry during busy times. At least for now, the additional measure has cut migration in half again: a 52% drop in Border Patrol apprehensions from May to July 2024.

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) wants to channel all asylum applications through its app. CPB One app, introduced in 2020 but only begun to be used a lot in early 2023. CBP has not adjusted the number of available appointments since June 2023. The border-wide maximum is 1,450 per day.

Texas’s state government crackdown has not reduced or deterred migration. Texas has not experienced a steeper migration decline than Arizona, where the Democratic governor has not pursued similar hard-line measures.

The drop in migration is plateauing. Migrants and smugglers go into a sort of “wait and see” mode as they learn how the new policy is being implemented. After migration “bottoms out,” it begins to recover and rise again, usually after a few months.

More migrants are dying even as migration drops. At Border Patrol ’s El Paso Sector, Border Patrol reported 164 remains recovered in the sector as of August 19, with six very hot weeks remaining in the 2024 fiscal year.

Releases from Border Patrol custody into the U.S. interior have dropped sharply. Due to strict implementation of the Biden administration’s June, 2024, asylum ban on persons crossing between ports of entry, releases from Border Patrol custody have plummeted: 12,110 people received a Notice to Appear (NTA) or parole in July 2024, 94% fewer than last December and the fewest since January 2021. Only 21% of migrants apprehended between ports of entry in July were released, the smallest percentage since January 2021.

Use of Expedited Removal has hit record levels. Nearly half of migrants apprehended between port of entry by Border Patrol in July 2024 were placed in expedited removal proceedings, a rapid process for deporting people without giving them hearings, usually while they are still in custody at the border, and with removal usually within a few days.

Venezuelans, Cubans, and Haitians have turned almost exclusively to CBP One and therefore formal, legal entry, rather than to try to enter between formal ports. That is lmosy likely due to the existence of the Humanitarian Parole program which admits 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans. (Go here for an overview of Biden’s extensive use of Parole.)

The geographic diversity of migration has expanded. Border-wide through April, 11% of migrants apprehended by Border Patrol in fiscal 2024 were from Europe, Asia, or Africa, compared to 9% in FY 2023 and 4% in FY 2022.

Darién Gap migration has dropped. Panama’s new president, José Raúl Mulino, inaugurated on July 1, ordered a few miles of barbed wire laid along some frequently traveled routes through the Darién and, with U.S. financial backing, has now launched a program of deportation flights that appears to aim to operate at a tempo of three or four planes per week. This month, about 400 persons are completing the Darian Gap journey compared to about 2,000 a year ago.