Where are the workers in the world?

India is overcoming China in working age (16-64) population. The rich country community is flat. China and advanced countries can increase workers only by immigration.

China’s secret population and fertility figures: Yi Fuxian wrote in Project Syndicate, “Even though everyone knows that China’s official demographic figures are systematically overestimated, the authorities have consistently cracked down on anyone who questions the data.” She estimates the India overtook China in total population in 2014, and China’s population began to decline in 2018. China did not replace its one-child policy with a selective two-child policy until 2014, before enacting a universal two-child policy in 2016.

Here is more information: China’s total fertility rate (births per woman) was 2.6 in the late 1980s – well above the 2.1 needed to replace deaths. It has been between 1.6 and 1.7 since 1994, and slipped to 1.3 in 2020 and just 1.15 in 2021. (Go here.)

Below is a graph showing the working age population ages 16-64, from 2000 through 2021. for China, India, U.S. and all high income countries. India’s working ago population has surged, China’s has not, and all high income countries’ has remained close to flat.

Here is a graph of the total world population 15 – 64, with the combined US / Euro working age population and the combined India /China working age population (from here.)

And, here is the demographic crisis in Japan and Korea.India’s fertility rate has moved to below replacement.

By the way, the Congressional Budget Office estimates growth of the U.S. population entirely due to immigration.

One thing thise shows is that of artifical intelligence empowers educated working age people to increase their productivity, the demand for these people living in India in particular will surge, as more workers with skills will be able to enter the job market.

Also go here,

 

 

 

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