I’ve posted in the past about the role of immigration in adding to births and to the workforce. Here is a Census Bureau projection which dramatically shows the impact of immigration over the long term on the share of the U.S. population which is U.S. born white.

The Census Bureau in 2023 projected  the American population through 2100. In light of the fact that the current fertility rate of 1.6 – 1.7, and that the Bureau projects population decline starting at about 2080, the impact of immigration is very important.

The projection needs to have an estimate of future immigration levels. The current annual level of permanent immigration (gross increases minus departures of foreign born with permanent status) is estimated by the Census Bureau at 850,000. It made a “high immigration scenario” at 1.6 million persons per year. Democratic proposals for immigration reform do not expressly state levels of immigration, about 1.5 million a year can be reasonably inferred. Below are the projections of key demographic categories from 2022 through 2050 using the high scenario.  These are projected percentages of the entire population. Because they go for a very long time, they in effect take into account second generation immigrants, that is, those born to first generation immigrants.

Note the decline of the U.S. born white (non-Hispanic white) share of the population from 56% to 43% in 2050. It dips below 50% some time before 2040. This decline is in part due to the low percentage of immigrants who are white. The second generation factor is a very important force in the demographics of the country over the long term.

This high growth scenario is highlighted by the immigration restrictivist Center for Immigration Studies here. Perhaps JD Vance has been influenced by these projections.

Changes of share of population through 2050 forUS Born Asian, US born Hispanic, Total foreign born, foreign born Asian, and foreign born Hispanic. Just for the size of the foreign-born population, it grows from 14% to 20% of the total population.

According to the Urban Institute, Between 2020 and 2040, there will be 6.9 million net new homeowners, a 9% increase, of which 4.8 million more will be Hispanic homeowners, 2.7 million more Asian and other homeowners and 1.2 million more Black homeowners, while white homeownership will decline by 1.8 million.