Lyman Stone thoroughly examines the persistent decline in fertility rates, which have turned below replacement rates in pretty much every advanced country and in India and China. The U.S. has been experiencing below-replacement fertility, with immigration now accounting for most population growth. JD Vance and others are calling for government policies to boost the number of babies. Do such policies work? is the theme of the article.

Stone discusses the concept of “desired fertility,” highlighting that many women wish to have more children than they currently do, often due to financial constraints and other barriers. He reviews various international pro-natalist policies (there are more campaigns that I had thought). While some studies suggest financial incentives can temporarily boost fertility, the long-term effects are less certain. The policies may be inducing woman to bear children earlier without resulting in more children in the long term.

Some research indicates short-term increases in fertility rates following cash transfers or family allowances, while other studies suggest these effects may be temporary or non-existent for completed fertility.

Based on the results from other countries, Stone estimates the cost of boosting U.S. fertility to replacement levels, ranging from $50 to $340 billion for temporary increases and $170 to $950 billion for long-term effects. He evaluates several policy proposals from U.S. politicians and think tanks, comparing their potential impact on fertility rates.

Here is my 2023 posting on Hungary, which JD Vance and others cite as a model for a pro-fertility government policy. According to the Financial Times, Hungary’s campaign, which spends at a rate of 5% of its GDP, has failed: “From a record low of 1.23 children per woman in 2011, the country’s fertility rate rose to 1.59 in 2020, but in recent years it has levelled off to about 1.5. In the first half of this year the fertility rate stood at 1.36 babies per woman, the lowest in a decade, said state statistical service KSH.”