I’ve posted in the past about the role of immigration in adding to births and to the workforce. Here is a Census Bureau projection which dramatically shows the impact of immigration over the long term on the share of the U.S. population which is U.S. born white.

The Census Bureau in 2023 projected  the American population through 2100. In light of the fact that the current fertility rate of 1.6 – 1.7, and that the Bureau projects population decline starting at about 2080, the impact of immigration is very important.

The projection needs to have an estimate of future immigration levels. The current annual level of permanent immigration (gross increases minus departures of foreign born with permanent status) is estimated by the Census Bureau at 850,000. It made a “high immigration scenario” at 1.6 million persons per year. Democratic proposals for immigration reform do not expressly state levels of immigration, about 1.5 million a year can be reasonably inferred. Below are the projections of key demographic categories from 2022 through 2050 using the high scenario.  These are projected percentages of the entire population. Because they go for a very long time, they in effect take into account second generation immigrants, that is, those born to first generation immigrants.

Note the decline of the U.S. born white (non-Hispanic white) share of the population from 56% to 43% in 2050. It dips below 50% some time before 2040. This decline is in part due to the low percentage of immigrants who are white. The second generation factor is a very important force in the demographics of the country over the long term.

This high growth scenario is highlighted by the immigration restrictivist Center for Immigration Studies here. Perhaps JD Vance has been influenced by these projections.

Changes of share of population through 2050 forUS Born Asian, US born Hispanic, Total foreign born, foreign born Asian, and foreign born Hispanic. Just for the size of the foreign-born population, it grows from 14% to 20% of the total population.

According to the Urban Institute, Between 2020 and 2040, there will be 6.9 million net new homeowners, a 9% increase, of which 4.8 million more will be Hispanic homeowners, 2.7 million more Asian and other homeowners and 1.2 million more Black homeowners, while white homeownership will decline by 1.8 million.

 

Lyman Stone thoroughly examines the persistent decline in fertility rates, which have turned below replacement rates in pretty much every advanced country and in India and China. The U.S. has been experiencing below-replacement fertility, with immigration now accounting for most population growth. JD Vance and others are calling for government policies to boost the number of babies. Do such policies work? is the theme of the article.

Stone discusses the concept of “desired fertility,” highlighting that many women wish to have more children than they currently do, often due to financial constraints and other barriers. He reviews various international pro-natalist policies (there are more campaigns that I had thought). While some studies suggest financial incentives can temporarily boost fertility, the long-term effects are less certain. The policies may be inducing woman to bear children earlier without resulting in more children in the long term.

Some research indicates short-term increases in fertility rates following cash transfers or family allowances, while other studies suggest these effects may be temporary or non-existent for completed fertility.

Based on the results from other countries, Stone estimates the cost of boosting U.S. fertility to replacement levels, ranging from $50 to $340 billion for temporary increases and $170 to $950 billion for long-term effects. He evaluates several policy proposals from U.S. politicians and think tanks, comparing their potential impact on fertility rates.

Here is my 2023 posting on Hungary, which JD Vance and others cite as a model for a pro-fertility government policy. According to the Financial Times, Hungary’s campaign, which spends at a rate of 5% of its GDP, has failed: “From a record low of 1.23 children per woman in 2011, the country’s fertility rate rose to 1.59 in 2020, but in recent years it has levelled off to about 1.5. In the first half of this year the fertility rate stood at 1.36 babies per woman, the lowest in a decade, said state statistical service KSH.”

Per Politico: At the Milwaukee [Police Association] event, [JD Vance] cit[ed] the 2002 film [The Gangs of New York] about an Irish man who returns to New York to kill his father’s killer, the leader of a gang that believes America should belong to native-born Americans and opposes immigration.

“What happens when you have massive amounts of illegal immigration,” Vance said. “It actually starts to create ethnic conflict. It creates higher crime rates. We’ve certainly seen that over the last few years. And I would like to stop it.”

Note: The film Gangs of New York, directed by Martin Scorsese, is set in the early 1860s. Amsterdam Vallon returns to the Five Points area of New York City seeking revenge against Bill “The Butcher” Cutting, his father’s killer. The backdrop of the film includes the social and political tensions of the time, particularly the conflicts between native-born Americans and Irish immigrants, during the  American Civil War.

The most plausible ethnic enclave today that Vance might compare with Irish in the 19^th Century is the Hispanic community, in particular in major urban areas. Hispanics accounted for 19% of adult arrests for violent crimes in 2019, proportional to their share (18%) of the U.S. population. For specific violent crimes like homicide, Hispanics made up only 2.3% of offenders.

In “Seventy Miles in the Darien Gap,” an Atlantic article to be published in the September edition, Caitlin Dickerson describes the perilous journey of migrants through the Darién Gap, the dense jungle connecting Colombia and Panama. She had received a Pulitzer for an article about Trump’s child separation policy. Here are some excerpts from her new article:

“More than 600 people were in the crowd that plunged into the jungle that morning, beginning a roughly 70-mile journey from northern Colombia into southern Panama. That made it a slow day by local standards. They came from Haiti, Ethiopia, India, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Venezuela.”

“According to the United Nations, more than 800,000 may cross the Darién Gap this year—a more than 50 percent increase over last year’s previously unimaginable number. Children under 5 are the fastest-growing group. The U.S. has spent years trying to discourage this migration, pressuring its Latin American neighbors to close off established routes and deny visas to foreigners trying to fly into countries close to the U.S. border. Instead of stopping migrants from coming, this approach has simply rerouted them through the jungle.

“Crossing the jungle can take three days or 10, depending on the weather, the weight of your bags, and pure chance. A minor injury can be catastrophic for even the fittest people.

“In the three trips I took to the Darién Gap over the course of five months, I saw new bridges and paved roads appear deeper in the jungle, Wi‑Fi hotspots extend their reach, and landmarks that were previously known only by word of mouth appear on Google Maps.“Once we entered Panama, we faced new threats: robbery and sexual assault. Most of these attacks happen at the hands of Indigenous Panamanians. For years their villages were routinely ransacked by narco traffickers and paramilitary groups. Some Indigenous Panamanians took up arms in self-defense, or got involved in trafficking themselves. The government did little to protect them then and does little to stop them now.

“In June, the Panamanians installed a razor-wire fence across the border at the same spot where we had crossed. When I asked one of our Colombian guides what the cartel was going to do next, he replied, “Make another route.” Before the week’s end, someone had cut a hole in the fence, and migrants were streaming through.

“Beyond the Darién Gap, migrants and their smugglers continue to find ways around the roadblocks set before them. Recently, hundreds of thousands of migrants have flown into Nicaragua, for example, which has bucked U.S. pressure to restrict visas.

“Mari Carmen Aponte, the U.S. ambassador to Panama, and other State Department officials I interviewed said the American government was trying to balance deterrence with programs to keep migrants safe. They pointed to offices that the United States is opening throughout Latin America to interview people seeking refugee status. The U.S. hopes to approve as many as 50,000 this year to fly directly into the country, far more than in the past.

“Key to these screenings, the officials told me, will be distinguishing between true refugees and economic migrants. But most people migrate for overlapping reasons, rather than just one. Many of the migrants I met in the Darién Gap knew which types of cases prevail in American immigration courts and which do not. They were prepared to emphasize whichever aspect of their story would be most likely to get their children to safety.

“After passing through Central America, those who could afford it took express buses to Mexico City. The rest slept in shelters and on the streets. One of the poorest families was kidnapped in southern Mexico. They sent desperate messages to the group, begging for money. Most said they had nothing to spare.

“In Mexico City, Elimar applied for an interview with American immigration officials using U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s app CBP One, which was created to streamline arrivals at the border. But she lost patience after a month and found someone to shuttle her and the kids across the border illegally. They turned themselves over to immigration authorities and were given a court date in 2029. That long a wait is not unheard-of. They now live in an apartment complex on the outskirts of Dallas, where her children are enrolled in public school. Elimar cleans offices and her boyfriend works as a cook at a chain restaurant.”