Political alignment and immigration views

The independent voter remains moderate on immigration. It’s the partisans who have veered away from each other, as their views on social issues have widened their gap.

First, consider how social and economic views have evolved in the past 20 years, according to Gallup. This is a summary of Gallup’s assessment:

Americans have become significantly more liberal in their views on social issues over the past 25 years, with liberal, moderate, and conservative perspectives now equally prevalent. These trends are driven entirely by Democrats, who have become much more likely to hold liberal views on both social and economic matters compared to 10-20 years ago. In contrast, Republicans’ and independents’ ideological leanings have remained relatively stable. The growing liberal tilt, concentrated among Democrats, has reshaped the national landscape on social issues towards greater ideological parity.

Second, the gap in party affiliation over immigration has widened greatly, with Republicans becoming more restrictionist and Democrats more inclusive. (But the median voter remains at keeping immigration levels where they are.) Persons who consider immigration as a “vital threat” to America: between 2010 and 2022, Republicans grew 8 points from 62 to 70; Democrat declined by 21 points from 41 to 18; but Independents declined by 12 points from 51 to 39.

Third, consider how the Biden administration has been profiled by Republican politicians as exceedingly and purposefully inclusive while their prospective immigration policy for the second Trump administration is exceedingly restrictive, going as far as massive deportation of unauthorized persons.

Trump has stated his interest in mass deportation of authorized immigrants, including the National Guard.


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