8% of children in the U.S. have at least one unauthorized parent

Trump has stated his interest in mass deportation of authorized immigrants, including the National Guard.

In 2013, there were about 5 million U.S. born children of at least one unauthorized person (go here). Assuming 2 children per unauthorized parent, this suggests that about 2.5 million of the 11 million unauthorized persons are adults with U.S. born children. The number of such children (say to 6 million) and the number of such parents (say to 3 million) have most likely increased since then.

There are about 70 million persons under the age of 18 now. Thus, about 6/70 or about 8% of U.S. citizen children will be deprived of at least one parent.

 

 

Again how many immigrants have come recently?

The Center for Immigration. Studies estimates that 5.1 million immigrants arrived in the wo two years, and 6.6 million since January 2021. My estimate (here) is that 5 million have arrived in since January 2021.  There was a sharp decline in immigration in 2020, when the pandemic severely disrupted international movement. Thus the CIS’s 6.6 million figure almost certainly overstates the trend.

In any event, is it fair to say there are 50 million foreign born persons in the U.S. or 15% of the entire population. By state, they range from under 2% in West Virginia to over 28% in California.

The CIS has a very different take on the number those in the workforce – it asserts that less than half of new immigrants where in the workforce, when I estimate 70%. The discrepancy is mostly likely due to two factors. On is that student migration to the U.S. surged in the past year or two after falling badly in 2020. They are not generally in the workforce.  Second, refer to the overall workforce participation rate of foreign-born, which is over 70% vs the U.S. born rate of about 62%. I think the 70% figure is more accurate to estimate trends. There is no reason to think (and the CIS gives none) that the demographic profile of immigrant has turned to more persons not in work force age.

Hispanic representation in Congress and the voting deficit of Hispanics

In the current 118th Congress (2023-2025), there are 39 Hispanic members in the House of Representatives and 8 Hispanic members in the Senate, totaling 8.8% of members, compared with 19% of the entire U.S. population.

In the 108th Congress (2003-2005), there were 22 Hispanic members total, making up about 4% of Congress.

Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is running for U.S. Senate in Arizona against Kari Lake. A challenge for Gallego is that Hispanic turn out of all eligible (not registered) Hispanics is sharply less, about 50%, compared with whites, which is over 70%.  According the 2021 American Community Survey, 32% of Arizona’s population aged 18 and over identified as Hispanic or Latino.  The white population 18 and older is 61% of the population. thus, the adult Hispanic population is half the size of the adult white population. But given the 50 – to -70 % differential in voting, the number of Hispanics who actually vote will be 35% of whites.

The power of the President to bar asylum seekers is very limited

The Biden administration issued today a policy to reduce migration across the Mexican – U.S. border. The new policy will be challenged as Trump’s similar policy was challenged, successfully.

Based on media reports, the executive order would shut down the border when border crossings – by which it is meant the great wave of crossings outside of the formal ports on entry by people seeking asylum – exceed a threshold number.

The key issue of law is to what extent can an Administration constrain the flow of asylum seekers without Congressional concurrence.

This Congressional Research Service report states (in summary) the legal issue this way:

First, Congress sets the basic rules of the asylum system.

Second, federal enacted in 1965 and not modified since protects virtually all asylum seekers, however they get onto American soil.

The 1965 Immigration and Nationalization Act (INA), Section208(a)(1) states that “any alien who is physically present in the United States, or who arrived in the United States (whether or not as a designated port of arrival…. irrespective of such the alien status, may apply for asylum in accordance with this section.” Also, Section 235(b)(1)(A)(ii) requires that an alien apprehended near the border who states an intent to apply for asylum must be seen by an asylum office.

The 9th District added more force to these provisions protecting all aliens by referring to the 1951 United Nations Refugee Convention, to which the United States is a signatory. This protocol clearly states that the legal status of an asylum seeker shall not affect the right to seek asylum.  The District Court wrote that this 1951 document served as an “interpretative” guide to Congress when it drafted the 1965 act.

During the Trump administration, and now with Biden, the courts will decide if these 1965 provisions can be overridden by two broad INA authorizations of the president (Section 212f) or the attorney general (Section 208(B)(2)(c).

 

 

 

How the eductional status of immigrants has flipped in the past 10 years.

Between about 1980 and 2000 the total number of foreign born persons 18 and over without a high school degree tripled in size to a peak of about 8 million. Then it declined. The number of foreign-born persons with at least a college has risen by decade at an accelerated pace.  This is in part due to the rise in higher education among countries where immigrants are increasingly coming from (Asia), plus their higher educaiton level to begin with compared to Latin America.  I call this part of the normalization of the immigrant population, to adhere closer to the socio-economic profiles of U.S. born Americans.