1st and 2nd Gen immigrant workers — 33% of all workers by 2030??

The Migration Policy Institute has issued a report on future job trends and the role of first and second generation workers. The report’s analysis is rather dense, but here are some take aways. It classifies jobs as growing “jobs of the future”, declining, and mixed.  Jobs of the future have more educational requirement, such as management and healthcare professions, for which first and second generation Asian and Black African immigrants are well positioned.  (The report inexplicably leaves out information technology jobs.) the share of the workforce which is first and second generation was 25% in 2010 and 28% in 2018.

Given demographic trends, the report implies, but does not state explicitly, that this percentage will grow in the future as more second generation mature into working age. 25% of persons under 18 are children of immigrants. (See here on how immigrants are a birthing factory.) Right now, about 11% of all workers are children of immigrants – percentage which is bound to grow. Speculatively, by 2030, the share of workforce which is first and second generation could be, say, 33%, up from 28% in 2018.

Some details:

Immigrants and their U.S. born children were responsible for 85% of the labor force growth between 2010 in 2018 at which point they comprised 28% of all workers [17% foreign born, 11% children of foreign born– PFR], up from 25% in 2010. And projection suggestions to 2035, all growth in the working age population will come from immigrant origin adults.

First and second generation workers are more concentrated in prime working age (25 – 54) – 70% vs. 62% for all other workers.

Three job classifications which are going to be growing rapidly in the future have about 25% first or second generation workers are manager, not otherwise classified, registered nurses, and nurse psychiatric and home health aides.

Major jobs where there will be a decline in workforce (with current percentage 1st and 2nd generation) include cashiers (31%). retail sales persons (26%) and maids and housekeeping, cleaners (61%).

Growing jobs will tend to relatively favor, Asians and Black African immigrants, both of which are relatively highly educated. Hispanic workers are relatively concentrated in jobs that are stable or declining.





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