What is going on at the Mexican border?

The Washington Post categorizes who is showing up at the Mexican border. An unduplicated count might be running at a monthly rate of 150,000 + a month,

Ukrainians: “About 15,000 Ukrainians escaping war have come to Mexico to be allowed across the border, and they are largely being welcomed and given one-year humanitarian parole in the United States.” This channel will be cut off when the United for Ukraine program is introduced (go here.)

People who cross and are not caught: say, 45,000 a month. “Border officials have acknowledged that anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 of these border crossings a day are detected but not intercepted.” It seems highly unlikely that the Texas National Guard presence at the border –personnel with zero interdiction training or technology – have any role in containing this flow.

These are likely many single males responding to labor demand in the U.S. The nominal wage gain may be 400%, but after adjusting for cost of living, the wage gain will be far less. (Go here and here).

People who are apprehended and turned back, say, an unduplicated count of 50,000 a month. “Apprehensions” measures how many times the government encounters someone at the border who doesn’t have legal authorization to enter the country. there are very many repeaters. Most people apprehended at the border have been turned away, under the Title 42 public health code that Biden is ending soon: In the past six months, the government has apprehended, and then removed, people at the border some 549,000 times. For a history of the use of Title 42, go here.

People who are apprehended and then mostly processed as asylum applicants: say, 75,000 a month. “These are people who cross the border, get processed by immigration officials and who are let go to various ends, like applying for asylum. Over the past six months, about 500,000 people were taken into custody but not immediately expelled. Some were deported, but most remain in the United States pending a court hearing. It can take years for their asylum cases to resolve, and many people just end up staying in the country, under the radar.

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