Fastest increases in immigrants by national source since 2010.

Among the origin countries with at least 100,000 immigrants in the United States in 2019, the top five that experienced the fastest growth between 2010 and 2019 were Venezuela (an increase of 153 percent), Afghanistan (143 percent), Nepal (140 percent), Myanmar (84 percent), and Nigeria (79 percent). I’ve recently posted about the exceptional educational attainment of Nigerian immigrants.

From here.

100,000 Afghan refugees are flowing into the US now

I guessed the other day (here) that, based on past war-related refugee numbers, there will be about 100,000 Afghan refugees admitted in the United States. CNN’s report on the current flow suggests that guess is roughly correct:

After the biggest military evacuation in history, the Biden administration will now resettle more than 60,000 Afghan refugees inside the US over the next several weeks. To accommodate them, eight military bases have transformed into “small cities,” as one Defense official put it.

About 17% of those who have already arrived are US citizens and lawful permanent residents and can head to their destination without first passing through military bases. The rest, however, will go to bases to receive medical screening, including Covid-19 vaccinations, before they’re relocated to communities around the country.

By the end of September, the administration is anticipating the arrival of 65,000 Afghan refugees. Another 30,000 are expected in the next 12 months. It’s an extraordinary number of arrivals, compared to the last four years when admissions hovered around 2,000 a month, a steep decline from previous administrations.

The last time the US resettled anywhere close to this number of evacuees within such a short period was after the US troop withdrawal from Vietnam, when more than 130,000 people came to the US over an eight-month period.

From CNN here. Thanks to the National Immigration Forum

The Congressional Dreamer agenda gets very hot

What is in effect The Dream Act will be coming to a vote in September. A killer problem is whether the Senate parliamentarian will allow immigration provisions to be included in a budget reconciliation bill. Here is a briefing on the issues.

To start off, the House bill H.R.6 legalizes Dreamers and protects other immigrant populations. Pelosi included H.6 in her budget bill passed on August 24. 

The American Immigration Council says the following about Dreamer legislative efforts. For a more detailed analysis, go here.

The first version of the Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act was introduced in 2001. At least 11 versions of the Dream Act have been introduced in Congress. To date, the 2010 bill came closest to full passage when it passed the House but fell just five votes short of the 60 needed to proceed in the Senate.

The Dream Act of 2021 was introduced in February in the Senate and The Dream and Promise Act of 2021 (H.R. 6) was introduced and passed in March   Both bills would provide path to citizenship for Dreamers. H.R. 6 would also provide a path to citizenship to beneficiaries of two humanitarian programs: Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and Deferred Enforced Departure (DED). 

the Council estimates that 3 million Dreamers meet the age at entry and educational requirements for conditional permanent resident status under H.R. 6. 2.5 million of are likely to obtain the qualifications necessary for the removal of the conditions on this status. 1.1 million more Dreamers could become eligible for conditional permanent resident status if they enroll in school. Another 400,000 people meet the criteria to adjust to legal permanent residence based on their eligibility for TPS or DED.

Again, the House passed on August 24 a budget bill that includes the contents (revised) of H.R.6. (On September 10 some other provisions appeared relating to visa backlogs and unused visa quotas. See @ReichlinMelnick.)

The Immigration Forum reports on the legislative uncertainties:

The Senate parliamentarian will decide shortly whether Schumer can include in the reconciliation budget bill coming from the House immigration provisions. Go here for a close-in view of the parliamentarian’s role .on this matter

If the parliamentarian green lights the provisions, House Democrats will aim to pass an omnibus bill on party lines by September 27, bringing together Senate passed infrastructure bill (The American Investment and Jobs Act) and the budget reconciliation bill including the immigration provisions. The House passed the budget bill on August (220 to 212).

Once the House approves the omnibus bill, it will go back to the consideration of the Senate. where Democrats hope to by reconciliation to pass the entire package inclusion the immigration provisions.

How many, and who are, current green card holders?

There about 45 million foreign-born persons in the U.S. 13.4 million are green card holders: 9.4 million (70%) here due to family; 1.6 million (12%) with employment-based visas; 1.6 million (12%) refugees; and somewhat less than million for other reasons.

An additional 11 million are here illegally. The remainder, 21 million, are naturalized citizens. About three quarters of green card holders eventually naturalize. The number eligible to naturalize has remained steady at about 9 million.

Most of data are from here and here.



Rosh Hashanah and Jewish Immigration

In 1880, in a Jewish population of approximately 250,000, only one out of six American Jews was of East European extraction; 40 years later, in a community which had reached four million, five out of six American Jews came from Eastern Europe. Indeed, at that time over a third of East European Jewry had left their countries of origin, and 90 percent of them emigrated to the United States.  From here

In Texas, Hispanics almost as many as whites

The significant shift in racial identity, which I posted on here, can be seen in Texas. The change is so pronounced that they must reflect a shift in how people identify themselves – many selecting to self-identify as non-white, while there was also demographic change in population towards non-white keeping to racial self-identifying patterns in 2010.

The total Texas population increased between 2010 and 2020 from 26.1 million to 29.1 million, or 16% (probably awarding the state two additional House seats). The population increase by race was white 2%; Hispanic 21%; Black 21%; and Asian 60%.

In 2020, the Hispanic population was 98% of the white population. in 2000, the Hispanic population (of any race) was 45% of the white population.

Note: Other includes Native American, Hawaiian, Pacific Islander and two or more races. Two or more races increased from 514,000 in 2000 to 790,000 in 2020. Texans appear to be far less inclined to self-identify as two or more races than elsewhere in the U.S.

The pandemic leads to attacks on foreigners and strangers

Throughout history it is clear that when disease spreads, xenophobia is rarely left far behind. In the 14th century, Jewish citizens were blamed for the spread of the plague and accused of ‘poisoning’ water supplies (Markel, 1999). In San Francisco, following panic surrounding a local smallpox outbreak, The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 was created. This Act not only prevented Chinese immigration, but also forced vaccination of Chinese residents without epidemiological rationale. Spread of Ebola virus lead to a rise in anti-African racism in European communities

The West historically saw trade from non-Western parts of the world as a potential source of disease, with ‘foreigners’ becoming associated with ideas of ‘contagiousness’ and ‘infectiousness’. This kind of rhetoric is also perpetuated by world leaders, such as President Trump when he proclaimed that ’tremendous infectious disease is pouring across the border’ in 2015. [This was written in 2020, before the 2020-2021 wave of migrants at the Mexican border and alarms about migrants bringing COVID into the U.S.]

From here.

And this, from Pew Research:

The coronavirus pandemic has increased social divisions across many of the publics surveyed. A median of 61% across all 17 advanced economies say they are now more divided than before the outbreak, while 34% feel more united.

Sentiments are particularly negative in the U.S.: 88% of Americans say they are more divided than before the pandemic, the highest share to hold this view across all places polled. A majority of Canadians also say their country is more divided.

Study recommends more immigrants

Pro immigration ideas are centering in an increase in immigration by about a third from the pre Trump / pre pandemic levels.

The National Immigration Forum recommended earlier this year an increase in immigration: “We project that a 37% increase in net immigration levels over those projected for fiscal year 2020 (approximately 370,000 additional immigrants a year) will help prevent the US from falling into demographic deficit and socioeconomic decline.”

The ratio of retirees to active workers (the old age dependency ratio) is rapidly increasing. “In 2020 the Census Bureau produced a report that included four alternative migration scenarios and modeled their impact. This scenarios included (1) zero immigration in till 2060, (2) a 50% decrease in immigration, (3) static immigration levels, and (4) a 50% increase.” The report confirmed that increased migration will decrease the dependency ratio of retirees to active workers.

I posted an analysis of the Biden immigration bill estimating that it will increase immigration by 28%.

Winston Churchill’s racism

To the 1937 Royal Commission on Palestine.

“I do not admit….that a great wrong has been done to the red Indians of America or the Black people of Australia. I do not admit a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher grade race, a more worldly wide race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place. I do not admit it.”

The unauthorized population is smaller and longer tenured

As I’ve noted before, the immigrant population (45 million) in the U.S. has gradually become more similar in socio-economic profile to that of the 283 million natural born citizens. The gradual melding includes a decline in the unauthorized population, notwithstanding the Mexican border crisis.

The following is from the Center for Migration Studies: An estimated 10.35 million undocumented [I use unauthorized] immigrants resided in the United States in 2019 compared to 11.73 million in 2010. Thus, between 2010 and 2019, the undocumented population in the United States declined by 1.4 million, or 12%. This trend is primarily driven by Mexican nationals voluntarily leaving the United States.

The percentage of undocumented immigrants that has lived in the United States for 15 years or more increased from 25% to 43% between 2010 and 2019.

CMS estimates that:

38% of undocumented immigrants are parents of US citizens,
16% are married to a US citizen or lawful permanent resident (LPR), and 96% of those in the labor force are employed.
20% of the US undocumented population lives at or below the poverty threshold, and
50% does not have health insurance.

From the Center for Migration Studies here and here.