Diverging population trends drives migration, raises risk of interstate conflict

Replacement rates, driven by women’s fertility rates, vary enormously. India just went below the replacement rate. Sky high African rates portend more out-migration pressure to advanced countries which accept talented migrants (U.S., commonwealth countries, Germany) – for instance, Nigerian medical professionals. Racial issues will come to the fore. Countries which face great reductions in population, notably China, may become militarily and diplomatically more aggressive.

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