More migrants at the Mexican US border

The Wall Street Journal headline on March 9 reads, “ Young Central American Migrants See Biden Era as Chance to Enter U.S. The new administration is trying to ease Trump’s border policies without sparking a fresh wave of migrants. There was a total of 100,441 border apprehensions in February, an increase from January’s 78,442.  9,457 unaccompanied minors were apprehended at the border in February, a sharp increase from January’s 5,858 and the highest number since May 2019.

The article profiles a mother tempted to go with her daughter to the border:

In the Guatemalan Mayan town of Colotenango, migration has picked up in recent months after a lull during the pandemic, according to Gloria Velásquez, a single mother whose income depends on remittances from four of her six siblings in the U.S.

“People here say it is a good moment to leave, to be at the border,” said Ms. Velásquez, 32. “The rumor is that children are allowed to enter.” She said she has been considering going with her 10-year-old daughter Helen Ixchel, or sending her alone.

Usually the family finds a “trusted person” in the community, who is often a deported migrant who knows the route well, to bring the children to the border, with the hopes they can reunite with relatives in the U.S., Ms. Velásquez said. But she said she has been postponing the decision as she considers the journey to be too dangerous.

Haydee Garcia, who manages a program to stop minors from migrating north for the Save the Children charity in Joyabaj, another Guatemalan municipality, said that in the past few months, more people are considering making the journey to the U.S.

Rebuilding the refugee program

From an editorial in the Washington Post about reversing Trump’s destructive policy on refugees, and Biden’s goal of accepting 125,000 refugees in FY 2022 beginning in October:

In 2018, for the first time in decades, another country, Canada, resettled more refugees than the United States. In fiscal 2020, representing Mr. Trump’s final year in office, fewer than 12,000 refugees were admitted, down from nearly 85,000 in President Barack Obama’s final year.

Across the country, long-established agencies, faith-based and otherwise, spent most of the four years of the Trump administration laying off resettlement workers and closing local offices. To cite one such example: the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops had more than 70 refugee resettlement offices when Mr. Trump took office. Today, it has 40, and many of those have trimmed their staffs given the unprecedented cuts by the Trump administration, which slowed refugee admissions to a trickle. Nationwide, about a third of roughly 300 offices that provided resettlement services for refugees were shuttered during Mr. Trump’s time in office; hundreds of Americans, dedicated to helping desperate people from nations reeling from war and disaster to rebuild their lives, were laid off. That expertise has been lost and will take time to regain.

No group of immigrants to this country is more thoroughly vetted than refugees, who are screened by the United Nations and then intensely vetted by U.S. officials, often for years, before they are eligible for admission and selected for resettlement. Once they arrive, an extensive network of nonprofit organizations and volunteers hustle to help them with jobs, housing, language training, medical services and schools.

Guest worker program for U.S.?

The concept of a long-term guest worker visa is rarely discussed in the U.S. These visas would create a middle ground between temporary work visas and citizenship or permanent residency. I think the concept is very hard for Americans to consider because we are at least overtly opposed to the idea of some kind of second class citizenship or permanent residency.

Here is an excerpt from a report based on round table discussions held in Wisconsin and Texas:

The participants also made suggestions for introducing new temporary programs or expanding existing ones for migrant workers. They proposed ideas that could expand the scope of the existing H-2A temporary agricultural visa and H-2B temporary non-agricultural visa programs.
A man from Wisconsin said more temporary programs for lower skilled occupations could provide incentives for undocumented immigrants to enter the country legally:

“One thing that ought to be done—there should be some middle ground between permanent resident status and being undocumented. I think there has to be a way for people to come here to work and be legal without the expectations that they’re going to become citizens or become permanent residents. I think a lot of people come here to work and send money back. I would like to see low skilled workers have some limited visa so they can work or earn a living and be documented to the extent monitored … that would give them a way to be here legally, pay their taxes, social services, and healthcare. I see great benefit in that.”

Another participant from Texas floated a proposal that mirrored temporaryto-permanent systems in European countries, such as Germany where non-citizens can access permanent status after living in these countries for a specific number of years. He said, “Whoever wants to come legally, give them a period of one year to prove to the government that they can establish themselves in the U.S., stay with clear criminal histories, and show they are productive and engaged in the community.”

From Turning Challenges Into Opportunities: Perspectives on Immigration in Texas and Wisconsin during the 2020 Election Year

Farm Workforce Modernization Act

The Farm Workforce Modernization Act was enacted by the prior Democratic-controlled House In December, 2019, and was re-introduced this week. This and the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021 are the two major immigration related legislative initiatives underway.

Farmworker-related legislation has been sought by a coalition of worker advocates and employer-based farm associations for some time. They are responding to a crisis in farm labor supply.

Some highlights of the bill:

Temporary legalization. A program for agricultural workers in the United States (and their spouses and minor children) to earn legal status through continued agricultural employment. Provides a process for farm workers to seek Certified Agricultural Worker (CAW) status—a temporary status for those who have worked at least 180 days in agriculture over the last 2 years. CAW status can be renewed indefinitely with continued farm work (at least 100 days per year).

Green card for current long-term workers. Those who want to stay can earn a path to a green card by paying a $1,000 fine and engaging in additional agricultural work: Workers with 10 years of agricultural work prior to the date of enactment must complete 4 additional years of such work. Workers with less than 10 years of agricultural work prior to the date of enactment must complete 8 additional years of such work.

Temporary workers. Reforms the H-2A temporary agricultural worker program to provide more flexibility for employers, while ensuring critical protections for workers.
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Electronic Verification of the Agricultural Workforce. A mandatory, nationwide E-Verify system for all agricultural employment,

Here is another summary.

How Biden’s immigration bill will reshape green card flow

The National Foundation for American Policy has analyzed the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021 to estimate major changes in the number of persons awarded a green card. It compares actual data for 2016 with a projection for 2032.

The total number of green cards is forecast to increase by 28% from about 1,180,000 to 1,510,000. Family-related visas (immediate and relatives) are to remain basically flat, while employment-related visas are expected to grow by 285%. Family-related visas will decline from, 69% to 52% of all visas awarded; employment related from 12% to 34%. Refugee, asylee, and lottery visas will remain at about 18% of visas. (In chart below RAD = refugee, asylee, and diversity visas.)

World migration today

The pandemic may have lowered by two million the flow of international migrants in 2020, but that is a minuscule number compared to the total size of migration. 281 million persons are estimated to have lived outside their country of origin in 2020

Of these 281 million persons, 45 million (or 16%) were living in the United States. The three highest source countries of migration (2019) are India (17.5 million), Mexico (11.8 million), and China (10.7 million). (Go here and here.)

Roughly 11.2 million immigrants living in the U.S. are from Mexico, accounting for 25% of all U.S. immigrants. The next largest origin groups were those from China (6%), India (6%), the Philippines (4%) and El Salvador (3%).

Between 2000 and 2010, the number of international migrants increased by 48 million globally, with another 60 million added between 2010 and 2020. Much of this increase was due to labor or family migration. Humanitarian crises in many parts of the world also contributed, with an increase of 17 million in the number of refugees and asylum seekers between 2000 and 2020. In 2020, the number of persons forcibly displaced across national borders worldwide stood at 34 million, double the number in 2000.
For most, go here.