Quick review of Hispanic vote potential in November

Hispanics comprise about 13% of the eligible voters, and rising. From 2004 though 2018, the number of vote-eligible Hispanics rose by 66% even though the entire population of the U.S, grew by only 10%. That is an annual increase of 3% of Hispanic eligible voters, vs. an absolute decline in white eligible voters. These trends will continue for some years. 

But Hispanics are poor in registering to vote: only 40% of eligible Hispanic voters get around to register and vote, compared with 55% for whites. Much of this can be explained by whites being older and with more formal education, factors associated with higher voting rates.

Hispanics favor Trump much less than do whites, The national spread between Biden and Trump is about 10% (i.e. 53% favor Biden and 43% favor Trump.) The pro-Biden spread among Hispanics is more like 30%.

The spread among Hispanics varies by state and country of origin. Hispanic men are far more likely than women to favor Trump. For example, in the most pro Trump state in the nation among Hispanics, the Biden – Trump spread Florida is Latina 17%, Latinos 10%.

Favorable to Trump (by men and women combined), by country of origin, are South Americans 39%, followed by Cubans (33%), Puerto Ricans (21%, Mexicans (18%), Central America (14%) and Dominicans (11%). Approval of Trump among Hispanices rises with level of education.

See here, here, here, here and here.

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