Archive for October, 2019

The new health insurance requirement

Friday, October 11th, 2019

The Migration Policy Institute writes about the new rule, announced on October 4, requiring immigrants to show evidence of having health insurance. “Coming without warning, clarity about implementation, advance planning, or consultation with key stakeholders, this proclamation seems to add up to a recipe for more chaos in the already chaotic U.S. immigration system.” It will cut immigration, recently about one million persons a year, by roughly 375,000.

“This is more threatening to current immigration flows than the public charge rule, which the administration is expanding to include more ways of public economic support of would-be immigrants. The new health insurance requirement creates an even stricter test, because it looks at just one factor: the ability to quickly find health insurance coverage.

MPI estimates the new health insurance requirement could prohibit the entry of roughly 375,000 immigrants annually— mainly family-based immigrants who make up the majority of those getting green cards from abroad.

The proclamation would apply to future legal permanent residents coming from abroad, not to immigrants already in the United States who are adjusting to a green card from another status. Refugees and other humanitarian entrants are excluded from the policy, scheduled to take effect November 3.

In order to assess the impact that this could have on future immigration, MPI looked at the best available proxy: recent immigrants. 65 percent of recent green-card recipients lack health insurance that would qualify under the Trump proclamation, including 34 percent who have no health insurance coverage and 31 percent who have Medicaid or subsidized insurance that would not count under the policy.

The easiest way for State Department staff to implement the new policy may be a straight income test. Those with high enough incomes could convincingly argue they can afford unsubsidized, private insurance or pay for foreseeable medical costs; those with lower incomes could not.”

Latinos in America Today: demographics

Wednesday, October 9th, 2019

I will report in this and a following posting on historical changes in the Latino community in the U.S

A report from the Latino Donor Foundation estimates that if the US Latino population were considered an independent economy it would rank as the eighth largest economy in the world. The report also says that that U.S. Latinos account for nearly 30% of America’s growth in real income and from 2010 through 2017 U.S. Latino consumption grew 72% faster than non-Latinos US Latinos have comprise 87% of workforce growth since 2008.

Demographics: the report sets the Latino population at 58.7 million or 18% of total U.S. population. Annual Latino population growth was 2.0% in 2017 and has been above 2.0% for every recent year. Non-Latino population growth has been below 0.5% in each year from 2011 to 2018.

According to projections by the Census Bureau, by 2060, Latinos will have contributed 30 million people to the population of working age adults (age 18 to 64). In that same time, the population of non-Latino working age adults will have shrunk by one million.

This graph compares the age distribution of Latinos with non-Latinos.

Household formation: Growth in the number of Latino households from 2010-17 was extremely high, at 19 percent. For Non-Latinos, it was just three percent. Latino share of total households shot up from 11.6% to 13.2%

Education: although Latinos still lag behind non-Latinos in formal education (more less likely to complete HS or to get an BA) the improvement in educational achievement among 20-24 year olds between 2010 and 2017 is striking:

 

Eastern European countries quietly recruiting guest workers

Monday, October 7th, 2019

South Korea’s Hankook Tire this month delayed a $295 million investment at its factory in Hungary because of difficulties in recruiting employees. About 200 of its existing 3,000 workers at the plant are from Ukraine and Mongolia.

The labor force of the 21 countries between the Baltic Sea and the Balkans will shrink by more than a quarter by 2050. Deputy Managing Director Tao Zhang told central bankers from the region in July that their countries must start importing workers to help address the issue. It’s already happening.

In Hungary, the EU’s fastest-growing economy, there were 49,500 work permits held by non-EU citizens in 2018, more than double the previous year’s figure. In 2016, there were about 7,300. While Ukrainians held more than half of them, Vietnamese, Indians and Mongolians are now among the groups growing quickest.

Romania boosted the number of permits for non-EU workers by 50% this year, with Sri Lankans and Indians joining Chinese and Turkish employees at restaurants and construction sites. In Poland, crews of Mongolian women paint newly built Warsaw apartment buildings.

In Belgrade, ethnic Albanians are working alongside locals to turn the Serbian government’s vision for a swanky new waterfront complex into reality. On a recent visit, President Aleksandar Vucic expressed amazement at how economic need was trumping a history of ethnic tensions.

From Europe’s Anti-Immigrant Leaders Have a Secret Hungary, Poland, and Serbia are among countries quietly importing workers to cope with a labor crisis, September 24, 2019.

Wider gap between Reps and Dems over immigration

Friday, October 4th, 2019

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs reports growing disagreement between Republicans and Democrats about the impact of immigration.

In its survey, it asked, “Possible threats to the vital interest of United States: large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the US.” In 2002, the members of the two parties thought alike: about 60% of each said it was a “critical threat.” In 2016, Reps had not changed their opinion but Dems were much less concerned. Since 2017, concerned Reps rose from about 60% to 78%.

The survey was conducted by the Council in June, 2019.

 

How Indians and other Asian-Americans have voted in 2016

Wednesday, October 2nd, 2019

On November 8, 2016, the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) conducted a nonpartisan, multilingual exit poll of Asian American voters. AALDEF’s exit poll surveyed 13,846 Asian American voters at 93 poll sites in 55 cities. The exit poll was conducted in English and 11 Asian languages. AALDEF has conducted exit polls in every major election since 1988.

The 2016 results: In November 2016, 79% of Asian Americans voted for Clinton. 90% of South Asians polled voted for Clinton, 90% for Obama in 2012, 93% for Obama in 2008, and 90% for John Kerry in 2004. 76% of Asian Americans voted for the Democratic House candidates and
16% voted for the Republican candidates.

Go here.