Europe’s future population and migration

Europe is population-wise flat. By about 2060 it will rise by about 3% before falling back. In the U.S. the population in 2060 will be 25% larger than now. Very few major first world countries have positive growth in both native-born population and in net migration. The U.S. is one of them,

Eurostat projections of population trends in Europe 2015 – 2080 see a scant total increase. Pretty much every country has a major in or out migration trend.

Total population starts in 2015 at 510 million, declining by a negative 57 million for natural means (births – deaths) alone. That is a decline by more than 10%. Net migration is a positive 65 million, resulting in a 2080 total projection of 519 million – basically flat.

Italy is due to decline naturally by 30% and is saved only by a very large in-migration; on net it still declines by 12%.

Germany’s native population is due to decline by 23%. It also expects a very large in-migration ending with a 6% total decline.

The United Kingdom is projected to grow by 26%, and France by 15%, due to positive natural growth and strong in-migration.

Romania and Bulgaria are clobbered by negative natural trends plus significant out-migration.

Compare this with U.S. population projections 2015 – 2060: 20% increase in native born, 60% increase in foreign born, resulting in a 25% increase while over that period Europe grows by less than 3%.

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