Expect most climate change-related migration to be relatively local

Climate change is inducing several hundred thousand Bangladeshis to migrate within their country, but globally there will be little international migration due to climate change. This assessment is made by Valerie Mueller of Arizona State University. She says, “The research suggests that we are unlikely to see massive global migration movements, except among areas already experiencing conflict. It seems that, in the case of Syria and elsewhere, climate change may be a risk multiplier for conflict-prone migration…. People that move in response to a climatic event typically move short distances….. many climatic events, such as soil salinity from sea level rise, floods, landslides, hurricanes, heat stress, etc. are highly localized…. Often, migration in response to climate change is a method of last resort among those who lack alternative options to cope with a disaster. For example, in our study in Bangladesh, we find that some households diversify into aquaculture, in response to the rise in soil salinity from sea level rise and other human-induced causes, while others migrate.”

Source: interview here.

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