Germany now at the top ranks of immigration promotion.

Germany is stepping up a strategy to bring in foreign born talent. Canada and Australia have done so for years but have cut back due ostensively to housing shortages. Japan’s government is trying to increase immigration in face of cultural resistance. Germany is going ahead. So says this report issued in September 2025. This is despite misgivings over and attacks from the Right on the large number of Syrian refugees in Germany.

The working age population in Germany declined by one million between 2010 and 2020(go here).

India is now Germany’s most important source country for both labor and education migration. Chancellor Scholz’s October 2024 visit to New Delhi. Germany quadrupled the number of annual visas for skilled Indians to 90,000. Visa processing times have been reduced drastically — Indian applicants now get approvals within two weeks.

Germany fuses higher education, vocational training, and skilled migration into a single demographic-and-labor strategy, with India as the designated partner.  This has made Germany’s relatively predictable, quota-backed pathways attractive to Indian applicants compare to other advanced countries.

 

Indian nationals in Germany rose from 86,000 in 2015 to about 280,000 in 2025. Indian students are now the largest international student group in Germany, increasing 138% between 2018–19 and 2023–24.

 

Acts and administrative policy steps in 2022 and 2023 helped to accelerate in-migration

Indian workers are mainly filling STEM jobs, especially natural sciences, IT, technology, engineering and mathematics. There is demand for AI experts, nursing and elsewhere in healthcare. Deutsche Bahn wants to recruit train drivers.

 

Facts about educational attainment of Asian immigrants

On Advanced Placement, about 54% of Asian students in grades 10–12 took an AP exam in 2025, compared with 20% of white students, 19% of Latino students, and 12% of Black students.

93% of Asian students attend high schools offering five or more AP courses, versus 76% of white, 82% of Hispanic, 75% of Black, and just 49% of Native American students.

India is the Asian country with the highest educational attainment. Among first generation Indian immigrants 43% have a post-graduate degree, compared to 24% for all Asian Americans and 13% for all Americans.

Indian, Chinese, Taiwanese, and Korean immigration has skewed heavily toward students and skilled workers, while Hmong, Cambodian, Laotian, and Vietnamese communities arrived largely as refugees after 1975 with very lesser starting resources. Hmong and Cambodian first generation immigrants had high school graduation rates of under 25%.

Today 45% of Hmong adults haven’t graduated high school—the highest share among all 40-plus subgroups—and about 40% of Cambodians and Laotians haven’t finished.

Hispanic support of Trump continues to fall

In November, 2025, I wrote that in the 2024 presidential election that the American Electorate Voter Poll put Trump’s support among Latino men at 43%. The Navigator Research post-election survey said received 50% of Hispanic men. According to Edison Research, 38% of Hispanic women voted for Trump in 2024, up from 30% in 2020.

Now, in June 2026, according to Reuters/Ipsos (access behind paywall) 27% of Latino voters approve of Trump, down from 36% at the beginning of his second term. An April/May poll Trump’s performance was approved by 30% and disapproved by 67% (UnidosUS/BSP also behind paywall).

The size of the eligible to vote Hispanic population grows 3% a year, while the white eligible population is slightly declining. But Hispanic propensity to vote in much less. 40% of Hispanics get around to register vs 55% for whites. And the voting rate for elderly American is around 80%.

Mayor Zohran Mandami address July 4

Excerpt:

What American Exceptionalism Really Means

There is a term so often used to describe our nation and those who have shaped it: American exceptionalism. American exceptionalism, the conventional wisdom tells us, makes our freedom a little more free, is how we dug the Erie Canal and irrigated the West, is why children in faraway lands grow up dreaming of one day moving here.

And yet the irony is that the story of America has so often been written by those who were told by others with power and influence and wealth that they were anything but exceptional.

For generation after generation, we have been told that when the world has sent its people to our shores, it has not sent its best. It sent Puritans and Sikhs and Quakers and Muslims and Jewish people who were banished for praying the wrong way, worshipping the wrong gods, angering the wrong people. It sent peasants and serfs from slums and shtetls who were treated as less because they hardly owned clothes, let alone land. It sent immigrants for whom power was something someone else had.

We are told that America is exceptional because we are richer, stronger, more powerful than everyone else. The truth, my friends, is that America is exceptional because here, nothing is fixed into place. The frontier may be closed, we may have walked on the moon, but the work of fulfilling the values first enshrined in the Declaration of Independence — that work endures and it belongs to us all.

It belongs too to our newest Americans, those standing here with me today, all of whom were recently naturalized. Nearly a decade ago, I too felt what you feel, the joy of no longer being just a New Yorker, but an American too. You each hold a special power, the power to determine what America means.

The powerful have always known their answer. America, in their view, is an arena of supremacy, where only a select few are allowed freedom, where not all are created equal. America, if you ask them, becomes less the more people it welcomes. America, they will tell you, belongs only to those with the right accent or the right shade of skin.

 

Justice Thomas’ dissent in Trump v Barbara

Justice Clarence Thomas, joined by Neil Gorsuch, argues in Trump v Barbara the Fourteenth Amendment grants citizenship not to everyone born on American soil, but to persons born here who are also domiciled here—that is, whose permanent legal home is the United States.

Thomas begins with Dred Scott v. Sandford. That decision denied citizenship to Black Americans by treating them as an inferior caste. The Civil Rights Act of 1866 and the Fourteenth Amendment’s Citizenship Clause overturned that result. In Thomas’s account, they did so because formerly enslaved people were Americans: they lived here permanently, owed allegiance to no foreign country, and were subject to the full authority of the United States. The Reconstruction Congress eliminated race as a barrier to citizenship; it did not, he says, establish citizenship for children whose parents were merely visiting or remained legally attached to another nation.

The organizing concept in Thomas’s dissent is domicile, meaning a person’s legal home and intended permanent residence. Nineteenth-century American law treated citizenship and domicile as closely related. Domicile determined national character, allegiance, taxation, the law governing personal affairs, military obligations, and the government entitled to protect a person abroad. Minor children ordinarily inherited their parents’ domicile. A temporary visitor therefore remained subject primarily to the visitor’s home country, even while required to obey American laws during the visit.

Thomas reads the Civil Rights Act and the Fourteenth Amendment together. The 1866 Act declared citizens those born in the United States and “not subject to any foreign power.” The Citizenship Clause soon afterward covered persons born here and “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States. Thomas argues that the phrases conveyed the same requirement: full and complete jurisdiction, not merely the territorial authority to enforce criminal and civil laws. He relies on statements by Senators Lyman Trumbull and Jacob Howard and Representative John Bingham, who described citizenship as excluding temporary residents and persons owing allegiance elsewhere. The treatment of tribal Indians reinforces his reading: although born within American territory, members of sovereign tribes were initially excluded because the United States did not exercise complete jurisdiction over them.

Thomas also invokes early governmental practice. Congress reenacted the Civil Rights Act’s “not subject to any foreign power” language in 1870. Executive officials repeatedly denied citizenship to children born here while their families remained domiciled abroad. Early Supreme Court opinions, including the Slaughter-House Cases and Elk v. Wilkins, spoke of complete political jurisdiction and freedom from foreign allegiance. Legal scholars likewise distinguished permanently domiciled immigrants from transient visitors. Thomas considers this evidence far stronger than the majority’s historical account.

He rejects the majority’s reliance on three authorities. Calvin’s Case, a 1608 English decision, rested on perpetual feudal allegiance to the sovereign; Thomas argues that Americans rejected, rather than adopted, that conception. Lynch v. Clarke, an 1844 New York inheritance decision supporting broad territorial birthright citizenship, was an isolated lower-court ruling, rarely mentioned during Reconstruction and later undermined by New York precedent. United States v. Wong Kim Ark, he says, held only that a child born to parents permanently domiciled in the United States was a citizen. Because Wong’s parents were settled residents rather than temporary visitors, broader language in the opinion was dicta and does not decide the present question.

Thomas adds three procedural objections. The certified class includes unidentified persons extending indefinitely into the future, raising standing problems. Neither the Citizenship Clause nor the immigration statute expressly creates a cause of action, and the plaintiffs challenged no final agency action under the Administrative Procedure Act. Most importantly, the plaintiffs brought a facial challenge, which requires proving that the order has no lawful application. Yet Thomas believes it is constitutional as applied to children of lawful temporary visitors and at least some undocumented immigrants who are not domiciled here. He leaves open whether children of long-term undocumented residents may acquire American domicile, saying that issue should be resolved through individual, as-applied cases.

Finally, Thomas argues that the citizenship statute did not broaden the Constitution when Congress codified nationality law in 1940; it merely adopted the Citizenship Clause’s language. He closes on a historical note. The Fourteenth Amendment was designed to secure equal citizenship for freed Black Americans. By transforming it into a guarantee for every child of a temporary visitor, “birth tourist,” or undocumented immigrant, the majority, in his view, detaches citizenship from permanent membership, allegiance, and national belonging—and thereby diminishes the “dignity and glory” of American citizenship.

Majority opinion on birthright citizenship

In Trump v. Barbara, decided today, the Supreme Court held that the Fourteenth Amendment guarantees American citizenship to children born in the United States even when their parents are undocumented immigrants or are here only temporarily. The decision invalidated President Trump’s Executive Order 14160, which declared that such children were not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States and therefore were not citizens at birth.

Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for a five-justice majority. The Court began with the text of the Citizenship Clause: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” The central question was the meaning of “subject to the jurisdiction.” The administration argued that a child lacked the required connection to the United States when the parents were unlawfully present or maintained a permanent home elsewhere. The Court rejected that interpretation. Jurisdiction, it said, means the government’s legal power over people within its territory. Undocumented immigrants and temporary visitors must obey American law and may be arrested, prosecuted, or sued here. They—and children born to them—are therefore subject to American jurisdiction.

Much of the opinion traces the rule to English common law. Under the doctrine of jus soli, or “right of the soil,” nearly every child born within the sovereign’s territory became a natural-born subject. Citizenship rested on a reciprocal relationship: the sovereign provided protection, and the person born under that protection owed allegiance. The rule applied even when a foreign mother’s presence was “momentary and uncertain,” and even when the parents could be expelled. The traditional exceptions were narrow: principally children of foreign diplomats, enemy forces occupying territory, and people born within territories controlled by another sovereign.

The American states inherited this rule after independence. In the majority’s account, birth on American soil generally made a person a citizen regardless of the parents’ nationality or intentions. The Court quoted an early American authority stating that “[t]he child of an alien, if born in the country, is as much a citizen as the natural-born child of a citizen.”

The majority then placed the Fourteenth Amendment in the shadow of Dred Scott v. Sandford. Dred Scott had rejected the common-law principle and held that people descended from enslaved Africans could not be national citizens. In the majority’s phrase, “blood, not soil, was made the rule.” The decision provoked intense condemnation. Frederick Douglass insisted, “By birth, we are American citizens,” while Abraham Lincoln called Dred Scott an “astonisher in legal history.”

The Civil War and Reconstruction reversed that judgment. In 1862, Attorney General Edward Bates wrote that “every person born in the country is, at the moment of birth, prima facie a citizen . . . without any reference to race or color.” Congress adopted the Civil Rights Act of 1866 and then placed the citizenship rule in the Constitution through the Fourteenth Amendment. The Amendment’s principal Senate sponsor described its language as “simply declaratory of . . . the law of the land already.” According to the Court, the purpose was not merely to protect formerly enslaved people but to settle the national rule of citizenship permanently and place it beyond ordinary political change.

The majority also relied heavily on United States v. Wong Kim Ark, the 1898 decision recognizing the citizenship of a San Francisco-born man whose Chinese parents were not eligible for naturalization. Wong Kim Ark described the Fourteenth Amendment as “declaratory” of the “fundamental rule of citizenship by birth.” The present Court said that precedent covered children of permanent residents, temporary visitors, and undocumented immigrants alike. Foreigners who enter for “business or pleasure” receive no exemption from American law.

The administration and the dissents argued that citizenship should depend on the parents’ permanent allegiance or domicile. The majority found little historical support for that theory. Domicile and citizenship, it explained, are different: a person may live permanently in a country without becoming its citizen and may remain a citizen of a country while living elsewhere. A domicile test would also replace a clear rule based on birthplace with difficult inquiries into each parent’s legal status and intentions.

Finally, the Court emphasized what the constitutional text does not say. The words central to the Executive Order—“mother,” “father,” “lawful,” and “temporary”—are “absent from the Clause. For a simple reason: they did not matter.” A child born on American soil and governed by American law is a citizen at birth. Only the historically recognized, exceedingly narrow exceptions remain.

Education in Mexico and the proclivity to migrate to the United States

The desire of Mexicans wanting to emigrate stands at about 20% of the population. That share is not greatly different from many other countries. But the share of Mexican workforce age working residing outside Mexica is high – 10%, of which almost all in the United States. Mexico is part of the American basin of workers, mostly with little formal education.

It’s unclear whether improvement in education status translates into lower propensity to emigrate.  Costa Rica’s high school graduation rate (60%) is higher than Mexico’s (40%) but Costa Ricans are more inclined to emigrate.  That said, a look at progress in education in Mexico is worth a look.

In 2000, only 20% of Mexican adults had completed what is called high school in the United States. Now, 40%. A lower education threshold also saw substantial gains, from under 70% to around 90%.

Higher education is almost entirely at state colleges. Attendence grew about 50% between 2011 and 2022.   About a half million graduate a year. (Putting that in perspective, that 500K is equivalent to somewhat less than 1% of the total workforce of Mexicans, in the U.S the annual number of graduates is about 1.5% of the work force. (But the HS graduation rate in the U.S. is above 90%.) This flows a lot more advanced educated persons into the Mexican workforce than in the past, but the absorption rate is low – to be sure, the wages are higher than for high school graduates by the quality of work is the lowest among all OECD countries. Half of college graduates are overqualified for their jobs.

If access to migration to the U.S. were easier, would college educated Mexicans wish to migrate? Would they have a better chance of getting work for which they are qualified, considering both wage and desired social status? Compared to less educated, who take many jobs Americans don’t want? The median wage of Mexican in the U.S. is $19 vs the national median wage of $27.

Timeline for Temporary Protected Status for Haiti (and other countries)

Temporary Protected Status law enacted in 1970

The law: “The government may, under section 244A(b) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, protect from deportation and authorize to work person who are affected by an ongoing armed conflict; environmental disaster; or “extraordinary and temporary conditions” — any of which prevents nationals from returning safely, unless allowing them to remain in the United States would be “contrary to the national interest.” The immediate beneficiaries were Salvadorean escaping civil wat.

Designation of Haitians for TPS

January 21, 2010, based on an earthquake on January 12. The designation was renewed in 2011, 2013, 2014, and 2016. The first Trump administration sought to terminate the designation starting in 2017. This termination was blocked by courts.  In 2021, in the Biden administration the made a brand new designation on the grounds of economic and social breakdown. This was extended in 2013 due to ““economic, security, political, and health crises.” (Go here.)

Some 330,000 Haitians were covered by TPS in 2025, out of the total od 1.2 million. (The largest represented country was Venezuela, at 600,000.)

Trump II termination

The Trump administration sought almost immediately to terminate TPS for Haitians, but was blocked by courts from doing so until the last Biden extensions expired in February 2026.

Secretary of Homeland Security Noam tweeted on December 1, 2025, to over 14 million views: “I just met with the President. I  am recommending a full travel ban on every damn country that’s been flooding our nation with killers, leeches, and entitlement junkies.  Our forefathers built this nation on blood, sweat, and the unyielding love of freedom—not for foreign invaders to slaughter our heroes, suck dry our hard-earned tax dollars, or snatch the benefits owed to AMERICANS. WE DON’T WANT THEM. NOT ONE.”

Termination for Haiti

The program for Haitians was terminated on February 3, 2026.

Justification by DHS: “Based on the Department’s review, the Secretary has determined that there are no extraordinary and temporary conditions…. Moreover, even if the Department found that there existed conditions that were extraordinary and temporary….termination of Temporary Protected Status of Haiti is still required because it is contrary to the national interest of the United States to permit Haitian nationals…. to remain temporarily in the United States……”

Regarding “national interest,” Noam cited, among other factors,  criminal gang membership, national security, migration factors, adverse effects on U.S. workers, and impact on U.S. communities.  Noam cited Executive Order 14161 “Protecting the United States From Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats,”’

Supreme Court decision, June 25 2026

By a vote of 6-3 in Mullin v. Doe, the Supreme Court overruled rulings by federal courts in Washington, D.C., and New York regarding TPS, for Haiti and Syria. The majority ruled that the federal law creating the TPS program bars courts from reviewing the determinations by the Secretary of Homeland Security. Justice Elena Kagan wrote the dissent: Haitian and Syrian TPS beneficiaries “ask for only one thing: that they may stay in this country while they continue to litigate their claims. … [T]hey are entitled to that relief, and should not instead be consigned to devastating, and indeed life-threatening, injury.”

The Mullin v Doe decision effectively closes the door on termination of TPS for the 600,000 Venezuelans, in October, 2026, barring a Hail Mary legal success by opponents.

Adverse economic activity due to ICE enforcement

Besides the Brookings study on employment I wrote about yesterday, another study published in May 2026 estimates that ICE enforcement reduced economic activity by 2.7% and spending by 6.2% in 2025.  The author focused on high ICE enforcement cities. He used data provided by SafeGraph, a commercial data company that aggregates anonymized credit- and debit-card transaction records. Retail outlets such as restaurants, stores, pharmacies and gas stations were covered.

The time period measured was Feb 2025 through Feb 2026 for foot traffic and Feb 2025 through Dec 2026 for spending.

The effects were strongest geographically near raid locations and did not fade over time. They extended beyond immigrant and Hispanic neighborhoods, affecting residents and businesses throughout targeted metropolitan areas. Independent businesses suffered substantially more than national chains, while restaurants, hotels, construction, transportation and personal-care businesses were among the hardest hit.

Adverse employment impact of heightened ICE enforcement

A Brookings study of May 2026 finds that the surge in ICE enforcement reduced employment reduced the number of expected jobs by 688,000.  The period studied was the first half of 2025.  This a shortage from expected for all would be job occupants – not distinguishing between citizens, authorized and unauthorized foreign born.  The analysis indicates the relatively lower employment was due in part to arrests and in part due to fear of arrest, which the “shock and awe” approach was designed to do.

(The total is from employment data, not surveys.)

Since the number applies only to the first half of 2025, it is certain that the total losses have been much higher. Because of the pandemic and the Biden-caused surge in employment during his administration, I think it is safer to use the increase of total employment in 2019 as a reference. In that year it was about 1.8 million. Assuming that all-2025 effect was a relative loss was a high as 1.5 million-plus, that means that the loss approximated one years’ normal gain in employment. Using another assumption that 75% of the loss is for unauthorized workers, which stood at about 8 million in 2019, that implies that, in order of magnitude, one tenth of unauthorized workers left employment.  This is a conjecture, and only for 2025.

“We find that employment trajectories in surge and non-surge cities were closely aligned before enforcement began. They diverged precisely when ICE arrests intensified. The gap widened over time, and the knock-on effects extended far beyond those directly targeted. In surge cities, employment fell most in immigrant-intensive sectors, but job losses spread further.”

“We isolate the surge from other forces: tariffs, inflation, and AI, operating simultaneously on the broader economy. The findings are stark: Job losses in surge cities far exceeded the number of people arrested, and the damage extended well beyond the workers who were directly targeted. The pattern of excess job loss is consistent with fear-driven labor withdrawal, business disruption, and weaker local demand.”